Age specifics of migration in the Russian Federation subjects during 2000-2010

The paper presents new methods and statistical models of analyzing age-specific intensity of migration processes. The authors used official annual Rosstat statistics on the number of in- and out-migrants by all age groups and RF subjects (except Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol) for the period of 2000-2010. They developed a methodology for identifying and quantifying a number of age-specific components of migration processes, each of them having a stable demographic interpretation. Identification and statistical evaluation of the components were made using a combination of methods of nonlinear regression analysis with the following stepwise regression that makes it possible to get consistent statistical characteristics of these components’ significance for each RF subject and each calendar year. It is shown that the method of components is significantly more informative for analyzing migration processes than the traditional methods based on current migration rates calculated for total population and taking no account of the specifics of the age structure of migration flows.