Choice of eleventh grade graduates: college, university, or…

The COVID-19 pandemic, a special military operation conducted by the Russian Federation, and, as a result, the imposition of economic sanctions against Russia, have influenced the choice of graduates of the 11th grade of school in their further educational path. The main goal of the study is to analyze the changes in the choice of graduates of the 11th grade in favor of either secondary vocational or higher education under the influence of the events mentioned. Another task is to forecast the upcoming load on the secondary and higher levels of education, taking into account the demographic situation. The study is based on the data from statistical forms OO-1 (school), SPO-1 (secondary vocational education), VPO-1 (higher education), as well as demographic forecasts by single-year ages up to 2050. The research was conducted using the method of mathematical analysis of statistical information. The time range from 2017 to 2022 was divided into three periods: before the pandemic, the first year of the pandemic, the second year of the pandemic, and the beginning of the special military operation. The conducted research shows that significant changes in the choice of graduates of the 11th grade who enter secondary vocational and higher educational organizations immediately after completing their studies at school occurred during these specified time periods. Thus, the beginning of the pandemic increased their interest in the secondary vocational education system and decreased it in favor of higher education. In the second year of the pandemic, on the contrary, interest in entering universities grew, and the beginning of the special military operation led to an increase in interest in transitioning to both the secondary vocational education system and the higher education system, but only for full-time education, with a decrease in choosing part-time and distance learning forms. The research results allow for forecasting the possible load (flows of graduates of the 11th grade) on the secondary vocational and higher education systems in the long term, taking into account changes in the population size at the age of 18 (the main age of youth completing the 11th grade of school).