Patterns in sustainable development dynamics for the regional space of Russia under the principal components method

Over the past two decades, three crisis periods have been observed in the development of the Russian regions: 2008-2009, 2014, and 2020. The purpose of this study is to determine patterns in sustainable development dynamics. The system of twelve indicators used in this research is defined by a relevant need for meeting the basic demands of the population at the present stage. The method of principal components is applied to develop a model of sustainable development with the panel data for 83 Russian regions in 2005-2020. Analysis of the sustainable development dynamics by three components identified the features of absolute convergence. The most significant economic component providing 50 % of the sustainable development level by the normalized values is characterized by the lowest average annual growth rate of 105 %, while the least significant one - inclusive (16 %) - shows the highest growth rate of 118.1 %. The socio-natural component, which on average takes 34 % of the sustainable development level, has an annual growth rate of 106.1 %. Graphical method and the identification of linear trends visualize the cyclical patterns of changes in the level of sustainable development components. Deviations from the linear trend during the downward phase of the short-term economic cycle after the 2014 monetary and economic crisis and during the preceding upward phase of the cycle in 2011-2012 were [-10.5 %; +11.5 %] for the economic component and [-25.7 %; +27 %] for the inclusive component, respectively. A toolkit for the comparative assessment of the composition of the first principal component under the sustainable development models for each year of the studied period is proposed and tested for the qualitative analysis. It is revealed that the economic component of sustainable development becomes a major principal component during the 2014 monetary and economic crisis and the 2020 epidemiological crisis, while the socio-natural component comes to the forefront in the remaining periods. The results can be used to justify the anti-crisis measures and ensure a more intensive dynamics of sustainable development.