Analysis of risk factors early recurrence in Hodgkin lymphoma (part 1): predictive models

Currently, criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of treatment and prognostic factors created a system does not allow an individual to predict the further course of Hodgkin's lymphoma and relapse. According to the results of combined treatment of 403 patients in ABVD-containing chemotherapy regimen (ABVD or СОРР(МОРР)/ABVD) produced a model which allows estimating for each treated patients, the percentage probability of return of the disease. Informative classification parameters were: number of massively affected areas, the class GHSG, the amount of damage levels cervical-supraclavicular, intrathoracic and abdominal reservoir, an exponent of regression. Individual forecast by early recurrence in the presence of a physician and the program STATISTICA electronic database RSCRR on 403 patients, after making the above settings using graphs posterior probabilities of discriminant analysis is carried out individual prognosis of early recurrence. Statistically significant classification allows to interpret the early episodes of recurrence in 92.6%, and the lack of early recurrence - in 98.3% of cases. At the same time, the model effectively predicts not only in terms of relapse of less than 2 years after the combined treatment, but also highlights the adverse group with a high probability of disease and return at a later date. It should be stressed highly informative for the classification of a very common chemotherapy regimen ABVD. Now you can estimate the probability of recurrence for each of the treated patients is of interest to oncology, and radiation therapists who treat Hodgkin's lymphoma.