Баланс трудовых ресурсов: история и методология прогнозирования

The article reviews a history of research and development of planned, analytical and predictive balances of labor resources. The balance of labor resources is considered as an economic and demographic method, within which the number and structure of the population, its reproduction, and the production of gross domestic product are linked. A modern version of the methodology for developing a prospective balance of labor resources is proposed based on the forecast of the working-age population, taking into account changes in the age boundaries of this socio-demographic group during the pension reform. The use of the indicators “number of labor resources”, “number of labor force” and “number of unemployed” for analytical purposes and calculation is justified. On the demand side of labor, it is proposed to consider the “number of people employed in the economy” as a derivative of the indicators of the dynamics of gross domestic product and labor productivity. The purpose of the article is to show that the traditional method of labor balance is not outdated, it works reliably in modern conditions, allowing to link and verify official demographic and macroeconomic forecasts, to find weaknesses and contradictions of these forecasts. The practical significance consists in demonstrating a simple and transparent methodology for forecasting employment and unemployment in the medium and long term.