Demographic Development of China – Russia Border Regions: A Comparative Analysis of Current Trends

The article provides a comparative analysis of the demographic situation in the border regions of China and Russia, specifically, the Chinese provinces of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning, and the Russian regions of the Far East and Siberia. Drawing on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) for the period 1990–2021, the study examines the changes over time in the population size and growth rates. It is shown that the Chinese border provinces have undergone an accelerated demographic transition, shifting from high growth rates in the 1990s to a sustained population decline between 2011 and 2015, with some indicators outpacing the national Chinese trend. The Far Eastern and Siberian regions of Russia demonstrate a similar demographic trend, albeit driven by different mechanisms: depopulation there is determined primarily by migratory outflow, whereas in China it results from the long-standing one-child policy and subsequent cohort ageing. It is concluded that the demographic crisis in the border territories of Russia and China is caused by different factors and does not pose risks to bilateral cooperation.