Dynamics of the structural transformation of the real economy of the Republic of Armenia in the context of shifting industrial paradigms

This article examines the structural transformation of the Republic of Armenia's real economy within the context of shifting industrial paradigms. In small open economies, structural changes and digitalization intensify under the influence of external shocks, necessitating a quantitative assessment of their contribution to output dynamics. This study aims to determine the extent to which changes in the sectoral structure, employment, and labor productivity align with the logic of transitioning from Industry 3.0 to the emerging elements of Industry 4.0 and the prerequisites for Industry 5.0. The research introduces scientific novelty by integrating comparative and systemic-structural analysis with econometric verification using an ARDL model. This approach includes adjusting for atypical shock periods with a dummy variable and accounting for changes in the internal structure of the ICT indicator. The empirical analysis draws on data from national statistics and international sources covering 2008–2025. The methodology employs statistical and comparative analysis, stationarity tests, the ARDL bounds test, an error correction model, and diagnostic and stability tests. The findings reveal that the transformation has been predominantly adaptive in nature, with limited potential for deeper technological advancement due to low R&D investment and weak technology transfer mechanisms. A limitation of this study is its reliance on aggregated macro-indicators and proxy variables, which opens avenues for future research involving a more detailed sectoral assessment of the Armenian economy's alignment with the demands of Industry 5.0.