Methods of information support of sustainable management decision-making in high-risk projects (in the case study of construction industry)

The current stage of the development of social and economic systems is connected with the comprehension that the applied decision-makings are inefficient and new decisions to reduce uncertainty and risks should be revealed. In this regard the sustainable development issues as a means of management decision-making rethinking become significantly acute. The task of the modern management is to make such a decision that would allow achieving the goals optimally considering the factors of internal and external environment. When studying social and economic systems in the context of reducing uncertainty and risk, we should talk about sustainable management decisions. Sustainable management decision is an information product of the management system based on the sustainable development principles: it suggests the balance of social, ecological and economic demands and is focused on long-term efficient activity of companies, risk minimization, responsibility and the compliance of ethic standards. We have suggested to find sustainable management decision and to assess its viability using the tools of risk and uncertainty decrease. The purpose of the article is to prove evidence of the mechanism of risk and uncertainty management to improve the quality of information support of management decisions in the implementation of projects at enterprises of the construction sector of the economy on the basis of methods of mathematical statistics from the view point of the sustainable development paradigm. Due to the approach the increase of the quality of management decisions is suggested based on the high volatility of the external environment. The methods of logical synthesis and analysis, decomposition methods, efficient analysis of scientific literature and initial data (informal interviews), comparative and regression analysis, the analysis of time series, simulation modelling, mathematical statistics and Monte Carlo simulation have been used in the study. The scientific novelty of the study concerns the hierarchical structuring of the relationship between the concepts of the sustainable development and simulation tools in the management of high-risk projects in the context of limited statistical data; the substantiation of the need to formalize the existing method of management decision-making based on the design and estimate documents and the selection of appropriate methods of information support for sustainable management decisions. Optimal solutions for the problems revealed during the interviews with the managers of construction companies have been made. The solutions include methodological approaches and systematization of available relevant data sets: simulation modeling using interval estimates, inclusion of subjective expert estimates in case of formal data insufficiency and ways to improve their quality. The testing of the original toolkit on the basis of construction projects of “Remontno-stroitel'noe upravlenie-6” LLC (Chaikovsky, Perm Krai) has demonstrated the practical relevance and the economic viability of the suggested original approach.