Modelling of food security in the region

The article considers indicators that can be used for evaluating the condition of food security in the region. Taking into consideration the approaches existing in scientific literature, the authors have substantiated optimal and critical values of the ratios of sufficiency of consumption and affordability of food. Statistical data on the Vologda Oblast have been processed and on this basis the economic-mathematical models have been built, which reflect the influence of various factors on food security. The authors have determined that the main factors include the per capita volume of import and domestic production of food, the level of intensity of agriculture and economic activity of population, and the proportion of residents with incomes below the subsistence level. Trend models have been composed for each of the factor variables; these models, with the help of extrapolation method, have been used for calculating forecast values and determining the parameters of the coefficients of sufficiency of consumption and economic affordability of food. The revealed relationships have helped identify key areas of regional policy that contribute to improvement of food security in the Vologda Oblast.