Seismic risk assessment in tourist- recreational areas: mathematical models

The article highlights the problem of evaluation of seismic risks in the tourism and recreational areas. To this end, the grounded and practically being tested mathematical model for evaluating the seismic stability 32 научный журнал СЕРВИС PLUS Том 9. 2015 / № 2 Оценка сейсмических рисков на туристско-рекреационных территориях... of tourist-recreational area on the example of the Black Sea, the Caspian and the Mediterranean region. This model combines the influences of disturbances associated with the anomalous gravity field (vertical component), and takes into account modern crustal movements (horizontal component), calculated according to the space geodesy. The physical model of the geological environment in the form of a closed homogeneous isotropic elastic space in the form of"plates" with as averaging the values of the density, shear modulus and Young's modulus is suggested. The geological environment is considered in the framework of Newtonian rheology, that is without taking into account the seismic deformation of energy dissipation. Experimental calculations show good agreement with the results of modeling really occurred in the historically-sky aspect of the catastrophic earthquakes in the study area. Suggested an additional testing model by comparing the orientation of the vectors of the horizontal displacements at the surface, resultingfrom mathematical modeling, containing information on contemporary movements of the earth's crust according to the space geodesy. The analysis shows that the greatest seismic risk are generally a characteristic of those places of the study area, where the vectors of horizontal displacements in opposite directions, characterized by a helical orientation. The prospects of using the model are describe, if it is considered according to Maxwell rheology of the medium, which allows to take into account the effect of the relaxation of stresses and strains in the rate of accumulation in the subsurface. This approach may allow a quantitative estimation of the seismic deformation energy dissipation, which is very significant in terms of the forecast estimates ofseismicity in the time aspect.