Computer modeling of the vaccination impact on COVID-19 epidemic process

The aim of our study is to determine the epidemiological efficacy of COVID-19 immunoprophylaxis with the Gam-COVID-Vac vaccine using a mathematical model programmed in COVASIM environment. Our mathematical model is based on global epidemiological data and demographic statistics sourced from the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing. The tests run simulated various vaccination levels. The simulations run with vaccination levels of 16.5% and 24.7% showed almost no influence on the epidemic spread of the infection, while the vaccination of 70% of the population allowed for a significant decline in the numbers of severe, critical, and lethal cases. At the time when the simulations were run with the existing data, the 98% vaccination changed the pattern of the infection to sporadic. We plan to continue the study when epidemiological data on the virulence and pathogenicity of new COVID-19 variants BA.2.86, HV.1 and JN.1, as well as data on the efficacy of the updated vaccine will be obtained.