On the impact of personal income tax on labor migration

The article proposes an original methodological approach to assessing the impact that changes in individual elements of the personal income tax have on migration flows. The subject of the study is personal income taxation instruments (PIT rates, tax residency criteria, the list of taxable incomes), as well as migration flows. The aim of the work is to substantiate directions for improving personal income taxation instruments in ways that give the Russian Federation a competitive edge in the competition for labor resources. The research methods employed include interval grouping, analytical grouping, cluster analysis (hierarchical and k‑means), the cartographic method, and theoretical methods of juxtaposition and comparison. The resulting clusters made it possible to identify a relationship between migration processes and the competitiveness of individual income taxation, while a cross‑country comparative analysis (covering data from 38 OECD countries) has substantiated the high competitiveness of Russia’s PIT. As a result, the study finds that the changes introduced in personal income taxation (the adoption of a progressive scale, the change in the approach to taxing residents and non‑residents) are unlikely to trigger negative consequences in the form of an outflow of labor resources abroad, yet at the same time they do not contribute to attracting the most valuable human capital. Recommendations are put forward for improving the taxation of highly qualified specialists. The methodological approach developed makes it possible to assess the potential migration‑related consequences of changes to income taxes in countries around the world. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the original two‑stage methodology for analyzing the influence of PIT elements on migration flows, as well as in formulating proposals for improving personal income taxation – specifically, adapting the tax scale and the approaches to applying tax deductions for highly skilled professionals to the demands of technological development. This would help attract the most valuable labor resources while also upholding the principles of tax equality.