The experience of using foreign diagnosis nonspecific prognostic models for patients of surgical and oncological profiles

The results of using of five wide known prognostic scoring systems for severity conditions and lethal outcome probability estimation (APACHE II, APACHE IV, SAPS II, MPM II 0 and POSSUM) for ICU patients of surgical profile are published in the article. The prospective study is conducted in the period from July, 2009 till September, 2010 on the Intensive Care Unit for Postoperative patients of N. V. Sklifosovsky Research Institute of Emergency Medicine. Data required for the calculation of predictive models are collected on the status of 300 patients, the lethality is 19,3%. The prognostic scoring systems APACHE II, APACHE IV, SAPS II, MPM II 0 demonstrate good discriminatory ability (area under the ROC-curve>0,9). Satisfactory calibration which is estimated by Hosmer-Lemeshow's test is revealed in only two in five prognostic scoring systems: SAPS II and MPM II.