Planning the tourism industry's development under the conditions of rapid macroeconomic changes

The paper describes the main factors constraining the growth of competitiveness of the regions of Russia on the market of tourist services. The authors suggest a technique of forecasting and planning of tourist industry in the region under drastic changes of macroeconomic indicators. The forecast of target indicators of the tourism industry is made and on this basis the authors carry out a prediction and planning targets of the Programme of development of tourism on the example of the Central Federal District (CFD) of the Russian Federation. For sustained development of domestic and inbound tourism in the CFD considered are four scenarios: distribution-homogeneous (uniform distribution of resources within the county administrative territories); locally-centered (reflects the emphasis on targeted development of traditional tourist centers and territories); cluster-distributed (focused on the development of tourism clusters in the traditional tourist centers and areas of the target under the conditions of the rapid development of interregional tourist routes); interregional transport-related routes (development of tourist infrastructure providing specially designated and equipped interregional tourist routes by highlighting the areas for which they are the most important objects of tourist exposure). The substantiation is provided that the efficiency (the ratio of the obtained results to the cost) of the Program is ensured by the implementation of the fourth scenario. Identified are the major risks affecting the success of today's tourism industry: the geopolitical and international macroeconomic, financial, technological and environmental. Determined is the purpose of the Programme, as well as related tasks to achieve it. Defined are target indicators and indicators of programs, the authors carried out regulatory exploratory forecasting of macroeconomic conditions, sudden changes in the characteristics of the tourism industry. On this basis, calculated are their values for the scheduled ten-year period.