Improving the efficiency of investment analysis in development: currency risks, sensitivity analysis and ESG criteria

The article presents three approaches to improving investment analysis of residential construction projects in current Russian conditions. Based on data from a real development project, the following are proposed: 1) a mechanism for adjusting construction costs taking into account the projected exchange rate dynamics for import-dependent items; 2) a pairwise sensitivity analysis of free cash flow to changes in key revenue and cost factors, with calculation of elasticity coefficients; 3) an integrated ESG criterion aggregating environmental, social and governance aspects of the project. It is shown that the combined use of these tools improves forecast accuracy, reduces investment risks and incorporates non-financial factors relevant to long-term value. The research methodology is based on the case study method, simulation modelling in MS Excel, and expert assessment.