Application of the scenario method for forecasting perm housing market

Over the last years Russian real estate market has become more developed, shaped and balanced. Thus, it is possible not only to explore it, but also to make a forecast. All real estate market participants from simple consumers to professionals are interested in obtaining adequate information about future development of the market. According to experts, there are over a hundred methods of forecasting. In this connection, there emerges a problem of choice of methods which could be the most adequate. A scenario method is supposed to be the most useful in the situation of high uncertainty. Therefore, we show the application of the method and forecast the average prices, volume of housing construction in operation and realization volume at Perm housing market for the years 2014 - 2017. Four scenarios are presented: three alternatives of Perm housing market development according to three macroeconomic scenarios (optimistic, moderate and pessimistic), and one more scenario (crisis), inserted because of the decline in national economy. Due to the fact of political risk increase at the end of 2014, the pessimistic scenario tends to become the most probable. This scenario assumes that average real estate prices in Perm will slightly fall within the next 1 - 1,5 years and then will continue to fluctuate in lower price range, while the volume of housing construction in operation will grow very slowly. It is necessary to adjust the forecast at least once a year. At the end of the article we assess the advantages and disadvantages of the used method and the direction of its further development.