Development of a prognostic model for the degree of difficulty of upcoming surgery in patients with synchronous metastases of colorectal cancer in the liver

Objective: to develop a prognostic model to assess the degree of surgical complexity for patients with colorectal cancer and synchronous liver metastases. Materials and Methods. To determine factors influencing the results of colorectal surgery, we formed a group of 565 patients with colorectal cancer who underwent resection. Using Framingham Heart Study methodology, the identified factors allowing independent prediction of postoperative complications were assigned points and subsequently grouped according to the degree of risk de-pending on the probability of surgical complications. The available complexity scales of IWATE and Halls M. were supplemented with these factors and the prognostic model was formed.Results. Multivariate analysis showed that neoadjuvant radiotherapy (P=0.021), degree of intestinal wall invasion T4 (P=0.035), tumor node length over 6 cm (P=0.003), tumor localization in rectum (P=0.050) and body mass index over 25 kg/m2 (P=0.037) had direct association with the probability of postoperative complications. As a result of the Framingham Heart Study methodology, each of the factors was assigned a score corresponding to the measure of the regression coefficient. The findings were stratified into 3 groups using a two-stage cluster analysis. As a result of stratification, the clusters were divided into three levels of difficulty: easy from 0 to 1 point, medium - 2 points, and hard from - 3 to 5 points. The duration of surgery (P function show_eabstract() { $('#eabstract1').hide(); $('#eabstract2').show(); $('#eabstract_expand').hide(); }