Trend models for the analysis of socio-economic security

The correctness of the trend choice for forecasting the characteristics of socio-economic security statistics can be qualified by the mean square error and the aspect of “Ascending” and “Descending” series (although there are other aspects, for example, the aspect based on the median of the sample). According to the proposed model, it is possible to predetermine the average monitoring errors for the development of the lower and upper limits of the forecast version of the values of the characteristics of socio-economic security statistics. The creation of a model is a rather labor-intensive process, as a result of which it is advisable to use, as a rule, the deterministic component of trend models when predicting the characteristics of socio-economic security statistics.