Trends in Russian education reform in the predictive estimates of demographic indicators

The article presents the findings of a retrospective and forward-looking analysis of transformations and reforms in the Russian education system. It provides predictive estimates of its development, taking into account the demographic indicators of various age groups. The objectives are to analyze the existing trends in education system reform and to design a methodology (mechanism) for assessing the development of, and the demand for, educational services at different levels of instruction. The object of the study is the Russian education system, and the subject is the selected demographic indicators corresponding to the relevant age groups. The research design comprised three stages: first, conducting a retrospective and forward-looking analysis of education reform trends; second, constructing predictive estimates of the development of educational levels by applying the authors' ridge model; and third, visualizing the results obtained for the Russian education system and for several of the country's regions. The information base consisted of data from Rosstat and EMISS. According to the findings, by 2035 student numbers will decline at practically all levels of education in Russia: at the preschool level, the contraction will amount to 10–11%; at the school level, the decline could reach 13.9%; the system of secondary vocational education will "lose" every tenth student, and higher education will contract by 14–15% relative to the 2025 level. The uniqueness and novelty of the methodology lie in its ability to predict, with a certain degree of probability, the demand for various levels of education, taking demographic indicators into account. The approach is universal and can be applied at the regional, oblast, and local levels. Accounting for regional specificities will make it possible to organize the process of managing and reforming the education system more effectively, with a view to training the necessary personnel. The methodology can be applied to assessing the effectiveness of federal national projects. This is unquestionably important for the pursuit of the strategic objectives of the country's socio-economic development and industrial sovereignty. The results of the study can be used by analysts, scholars, and administrators who deal with education issues.