Probability of rabies infectious process in people in a region with a complex epizootic situation with rabies

The aim of the study was to establish the relationship between cases of animal rabies and cases of people seeking medical help after bites of synanthropic and wild animals in various geographical areas of the Saratov Region. An analysis of the number of people who sought medical help for animal bites in the right-bank Districts of the Saratov Region in 2022 showed that the largest number of people sought medical help after traumatic contacts with animals in Balashovsky (272 people), Volsky (213 people), Rtishchevsky Districts (126 people), and in the left-bank Districts of the Region, the largest number of people sought medical help after traumatic contacts with animals in Balakovsky, Pugachevsky and Krasnokutsky Districts of the Region, which amounted to 580, 167 and 82 people, respectively. The leading positions in the number of people injured by animal bites during the period under review are occupied by the city of Saratov - 2,342 people, as well as the city of Engels and the Engels District of the Region - 1,037 people. Having analyzed the number of people injured by animals with established rabies in the Saratov Region in 2022, it was found that the largest number of people were injured in Saratov (11 people). In Dergachevsky - 9 people, in Rtishchevsky and Sovetsky Districts - 8 people, respectively. An analysis of the number of cases of rabies in animals of different species in the region in 2022 showed that the leading positions among the recorded cases of rabies were occupied by dogs (16 cases), cats (14 cases), and wild animals (9 cases). The probability of infection of the population with the rabies virus during traumatic contact with an animal is 0.066. In conditions of stationary trouble in the Region over a long period of time, the contagiousness index is 2.1, which indicates an extremely high danger and probability of rabies among the population of the Region.