Theoretical and methodological issues. Рубрика в журнале - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Статья научная
Recently, attention to assessing the effectiveness of measures aimed at promoting birth rate has been increasing. Among these measures, federal maternal (family) capital is, doubtless, the most significant one; thus, it is necessary to develop methodological approaches so as to assess the impact of specific demographic policy measures, in particular maternity capital, on birth rate dynamics. The aim of the study is to design a methodology for evaluating and measuring the effectiveness of federal maternity capital based on official statistics. The article presents two approaches to the methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of federal maternal (family) capital: the first is based on current accounting data, the second is based on census and micro-census data. Within the framework of the first approach, we consider it necessary to apply age-related birth rates for second births in real generations of women, that is, attributed to generations rather than calendar years. The second approach is based on the information about reproductive intentions. In accordance with this information, data on the average expected number of children, according to the 2015 micro-census, and the average number of children born according to the results of the 2020 census are compared. The proposed methodology helps to obtain estimates of the effectiveness of demographic policy measures, taking into account their target orientation (for example, an increase in the birth rate of a certain order or in women of certain age groups). The approbation of the proposed approaches on the example of assessing the effectiveness of maternity capital indicates the expediency of their application. Scientific novelty of our research consists in the convergence of the two approaches in order to measure the effectiveness of federal maternity capital, and in the methodology for using more detailed birth rate indicators in assessing demographic policy measures. The approbation of the approaches has not only analytical capabilities, allowing us to study birth rate in real generations of women according to the order of births and characterize reproductive attitudes; it also substantiates the conclusions about the effectiveness of federal maternity capital.
Бесплатно
“Black swans” and social institutions
Статья научная
The paper considers the COVID-19 pandemic as a manifestation of an upward trend in various kinds of risks on the path of social development. Promoting the adaptive abilities of socio-economic systems becomes an urgent task. We propose to use the experience of various countries in combating the pandemic to analyze the conditions that help to respond effectively to various unforeseen challenges, which are often referred to as “black swans” in modern literature. We present a brief review of the literature that analyzes the differences between countries, which affect their economic development amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. We prove that, contrary to popular belief, the continued growth of GDP can be combined with relatively low COVID-19 mortality rates. This conclusion is based on data from 30 countries for the year 2020. We note that the share of the service sector in the economy has a significant impact on the dynamics of GDP in the context of the pandemic. We focus on the relationship between changes in GDP in 2020 and institutional circumstances. We find that it is possible to curb the decline in GDP growth rates primarily in those countries where the population trusts the government. The decline in GDP in some countries under consideration occurs against the background of relatively high information and personal freedom that contributes to a decline in the level of trust in the government in the context of the pandemic. The regression analysis confirms that almost half of the differences between countries in GDP dynamics in 2020 are negatively related to two factors: COVID-19 mortality and information freedom. If the people have no trust in the government, then the efforts it undertakes to adapt to an emergency situation may prove ineffective, and social activity can become destructive. In the future, it would be useful to compare the adaptive capacity of countries in terms of the rate of recovery of their economies after the pandemic.
Бесплатно
