Public expenditure on higher education in India: A time-series regression analysis of budget trends, utilisation, and policy implications

Public financing plays a pivotal role in expanding access to and enhancing the quality of higher education systems. In India, the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 sets a transformative target of achieving a 50 percent Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) by 2035, making the trajectory and adequacy of public expenditure a central policy concern. This study examines trends in public expenditure on higher education by analyzing the Ministry of Education’s Budget Estimates (BE) and Actual Expenditure (AE) from 2010-11 to 2024-25, with the objective of assessing long-term growth patterns and their alignment with national policy priorities. Analysis uses descriptive statistics and time-series linear regression to study past expenditure trends and predict spending on higher education up to 2034–35. The results show a steady increase in public funding for higher education in India. Budget Estimates increased from Rs.16,690 crore in 2010–11 to Rs.47,620 crore in 2024–25, while Actual Expenditure increased from Rs.15,472 crore to Rs.46,482 crore during the same period. Regression analysis shows significant yearly growth in both Budget Estimates and Actual Expenditure, indicating strong government support for higher education. Based on past trends, public expenditure may reach nearly Rs.68,000 crore by 2034–35. These findings highlight the need for continuous financial support to improve enrolment, infrastructure, and quality in line with NEP 2020. The gap between planned and actual spending also shows the need for better budget implementation and expenditure management. The findings provide evidence-based insights for policymakers and stakeholders, emphasizing that long-term investment, coupled with efficient fiscal management, is essential for achieving inclusive and sustainable expansion of India’s higher education system.