Modeling and forecast. Рубрика в журнале - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Forecasting of indicators of the region's socio-economic development
Статья научная
The article analyses the statistical data on the volumes of investment in different spheres of the socio-economic system of the Udmurt Republic in the 1996-2010 period. The values of production and human capitals are predicted for the next five years with regard to the forecasting of the dynamics of investment volume based on economic and mathematical models. The article resolves the task of modeling dynamics of the gross regional product in the Udmurt Republic by applying production function constructed on the basis of statistical methods of correlation and regression analysis, and the issue concerning the forecasting of the dynamics of production and human capitals.
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the urgent research issues on the integration and modelling of foreign economic activity from the little-studied aspect of the system of relations “country - region of another country”. The authors examine the background and the tendencies of development of trade and economic integration of the NWFD regions and the Republic of Belarus. The need for use of mathematic tools to model and to predict the integration processes is founded in the article. The authors describe the mathematic apparatus of gravitation, econometric and inter-branch models. In the range of gravitation model the researchers make regression equations to predict the foreign trade turnover and export of the Republic of Belarus to the Russian Federation.
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Modeling of equilibrium operation of economy in the north-west federal district
Статья научная
The article presents the results of economic equilibrium evaluating in the regions of North-west federal district from 2000 to 2008 made on the basis of the simple mathematical models reflecting the dynamics of consumers’ demand, labour supply and usage of the labour potential in the market operation of the regional economy.
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Typing the region's economy for staffing requirements forecasting
Статья научная
The article considers a method that defines type zones in the region's economy in accordance with the intensity of modernization and innovation diffusion processes. The author substantiates the application of unified approaches to forecasting the professional qualification components of staffing requirements in the type zones in accordance with the nature of structural changes. The article presents the results of typing the economy of Krasnoyarsk Krai and its municipalities. It indicates that the use of this approach enhances the accuracy and relevance of the results of the long-term forecast of personnel demand of the regional economy.
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