Empirical and Statistical Determination of Optimal Distribution Model for Radio Frequency Mobile Networks Using Realistic Weekly Block Call Rates Indicator

Mobile phones and handsets enable us to communicate our voice, data and video messages with individuals that are far-off from us. When an active call is initiated by someone using a mobile phone, it is transmitted through a nearby Base Station (BS) transmitter to another BS until the call gets to its intended receiver. Any time a caller initiates and loses a connection to a BS while on conversation, the call is said to be dropped. The initiation and completion of an active call without any form of disconnection or termination is a key service quality parameter in telecommunication system networks. Robust statistical estimation, modelling and characterization of call drop rates is of high importance to the network operators and radio frequency engineers for effective re-planning and performance management process of telecommunication system networks. This work was designed to determine the optimal probability distribution model for drop call rates based on a five week acquired rate of drop calls data sample in the Southern regions of Nigeria. To accomplish the aim, eight probability distributions namely logistic, log-logistic, normal, log-normal, exponential, Rayleigh, rician and Gumbel max were explored and based on the combined scores of three goodness of fit statistical tests, the log-logistic distribution was found to be the optimal probability distribution for the weekly rate of drop call prognostic analysis. The results could be of immense assistance to radio frequency engineers for optimal statistical modelling and design of cellular systems channels.