Factor temporary forecast of socially significant morbidity in Primorsky krai

At present, the problem of climate change and its impact on human health has become one of the central issues in the field of anthropoecology. The aim of this work was to analyze the influence of climatic factors on the socially significant pathology of the population in regions of Primorsky Krai. The main research method was “time factor forecasting”. The “factor” approach proposed by the authors is based on the idea of predicting not specific absolute indicators, but morbidity level that could be higher or equal to some critical value given by the researcher. This problem was solved by the original algorithm for interval pattern recognition. Based on this method, the results of temporary factor forecasting of the critical levels for 7 indicators of socially significant morbidity using four climatic, four socio-economic and one environmental factor, are presented. It is shown climatic factors basically are satisfactory and have a high quality for the forecast, while the socioeconomic and ecological factors are mostly unsatisfactory...