Экономика открытых моноспециализированных регионов: поиск модели развития

In the development strategies of open export-oriented regions, the main focus of projects and programs that form the image of the “economy of the future” is traditionally associated with a specialized industry with an insignificant role and scope of diversification processes. The article substantiates the legitimacy of applying the concepts of the theory of the “Dutch disease” to the analysis of monospecialized regions exporting products of the manufacturing industry of the primary technological processes (metallurgy). Negative consequences are considered on the example of the economy of regions with classic effects of deindustrialization from the position of concentration on the specialized industry (as a diagnosis of “Dutch disease”); the formation of different models of development is justified: both the preservation of the mono industry at the center of the economy, and the models of active changes as a response to the instability of the external economic environment and a high concentration of risks of uncertainty. The inclusion of innovations creates conditions for variability of development trends, and the tools of the platform for “smart” regional specializations provide an applied format for transforming existing economic models without losing the accumulated advantages of specialized industries. The conducted analysis of the evolution of economic structure of four diversified regions specializing in metallurgy (Chelyabinsk, Vologda, Lipetsk, and Krasnoyarsk region) with a similar industry structure, similar starting parameters and prerequisites for economic growth, made it possible to identify positive processes of inter-industry and intra-industry diversification. For the empirical substantiation of transformational changes, the authors use statistical and coefficient analysis, shift-share analysis (boundary delimitation of national, sectoral, and regional components), and multi-criteria analysis of exports and changes in the tradable sector. The research is the initial stage of developing the theory of diversified development and early diagnostics of unique trajectories of “smart” development of regions of the Russian Federation.