On the issue of poverty in Russia: facts, paradoxes, specifics, and alleviation prospects

The relevance of the research topic is determined by the need to reduce poverty in Russia to improve the quality of human capital in order to ensure long-term and sustainable growth of its economy. The paradox of the current welfare system in the country has been established: a significant excess of the real poverty rate compared to its maximum permissible value against the background of high indicators of total national wealth and economic potential of the country. The aim of the study is to theoretically substantiate the failure of Russia’s transition in 2021 to a new methodology for determining the national poverty line; to statistically test the hypothesis of high regional income inequality as one of the main features of Russian poverty, limiting the possible rates of economic growth; to formulate the minimum necessary tools of state policy to promote poverty reduction in the country. The research methodology is based on the system approach; on the application of methods of correlation, regression, cluster analysis of data (including the method of k-means and hierarchical clustering), methods of classification, comparison, contrast and time series analysis. The models were identified by means of analysis of variance, testing of statistical hypotheses about the reliability of models and the significance of their parameters, coefficient of determination. In the context of the concepts of “social state” and “sustainable development” the inappropriateness of Russia’s rejection of the normative approach to the definition of the national poverty line in favor of only a relative approach (44.2% of Me) was substantiated. Regression dependencies between the poverty rate and per capita GRP (taking into account its structural components) were constructed for Russia’s constituent entities; four clusters were formed on the basis of such dependencies, within which direct and inverse relationships of different strength between the poverty rate and structural components of per capita GRP were identified. The minimum necessary toolkit of state policy to promote poverty reduction in Russia, taking into account the existing capabilities of its economy, was formed.