Major city development forecast: designing the innovative future
Автор: Lavrikova Yuliya Georgievna, Antipin Ivan Aleksandrovich, Pryadein Aleksei Anatolevich, Suvorova Arina Valerevna
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: Innovation development
Статья в выпуске: 6 (48) т.9, 2016 года.
Бесплатный доступ
The article describes the results of application of the authors' approach to forecasting the development of the city (in the case of one of the largest Russian cities - Ekaterinburg). The main results of the development of multi-variant long-term forecast of Ekaterinburg socio-economic development are presented: the provisions of the approach used to create such documents are set out, a brief description of the forecasting methodology is given, the key aspects of city life in the context of the proposed development scenarios are forecasted, the main risks of long-term development of the city are described. The study is based on the use of the whole set of forecasting methods such as mathematical modeling, balance and cohort-component methods, extrapolation methods and expert evaluation method. The article describes the situation in Ekaterinburg regarding other cities and evaluates key development prospects of a municipal unit. It is recommended to use the approach based on the given scenario “junctions” (each of which gives two alternative scenarios); this helped identify eight options for the city transformation...
Forecasting, development scenario, major city, demographic forecast, economic forecast, labor resource forecast
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223889
IDR: 147223889 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.6.48.12
Список литературы Major city development forecast: designing the innovative future
- Bochko V.S. Integrativnoe strategicheskoe razvitie territorii. Teoriya i metodologiya . Ekaterinburg: Institut ekonomiki UrO RAN, 2010. 316 p.
- Vazhenina I. S. Gorizonty territorial'noi konkurentsii v sovremennom ekonomicheskom prostranstve . Obshchestvo i ekonomika , 2011, no. 3, pp. 67-85.
- Vlasova N.Yu., Silin Ya.P. Gorodskaya politika za rubezhom . Akademicheskii vestnik Uralniiproekt RASSN, 2009, no. 3, pp. 18-21.
- Itogi sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya munitsipal'nogo obrazovaniya "gorod Ekaterinburg" v 2015 godu . Departament ekonomiki Administratsii goroda Ekaterinburga . Ekaterinburg, 2016. 202 p.
- Kozlova O.A. Zanyatost' naseleniya industrial'nogo regiona: problemy teorii i praktiki regulirovaniya . Ekaterinbrg: Institut ekonomiki UrO RAN, 2008. 224 p.
- Kozlova O.A., Gladkova T.V., Makarova M.N., Tukhtarova E.Kh. Metodicheskii podkhod k izmereniyu kachestva zhizni naseleniya regiona . Ekonomika regiona , 2015, no. 2, pp. 182-193.
- Kuznetsova O.P., Kuznetsov V.V., Makarov V.V., Negoduiko A.V., Yumaev E.A. Regional'nye aspekty realizatsii federal'nogo zakona "O strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii" . Izvestiya Irkutskoi gosudarstvennoi ekonomicheskoi akademii , 2015, no. 5, volume 25, pp. 758-766.
- Makarov V.L., Glazyrin M.V., Korolev V.E. Perekhod k innovatsionnoi samoorganizatsii munitsipal'nykh obrazovanii . Politiya , 2003, no. 4, p. 113.
- Nivorozhkina L.I. Gendernaya differentsiatsiya: vliyanie lokal'nykh rynkov truda . Ekonomicheskii vestnik Rostovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta , 2005, volume 3, no. 1, pp. 23-33.
- Senchagov V.K., Ivanov E.A. Zakon o strategicheskom planirovanii i zadachi ego realizatsii . Vestnik finansovogo universiteta , 2015, no. 3 (87), pp. 38-50.
- Suslov V.I., Romanova O.A., Grebenkin A.V., Akberdina V.V. Stsenarii dolgosrochnogo razvitiya staropromyshlennogo regiona . EKO, 2012, no. 3, pp. 158-177.
- Tatarkin A.I., Bochko V.S. Problemy i napravleniya dal'neishego sovershenstvovaniya mestnogo samoupravleniya . Ekonomika regiona , 2008, no. 2, pp. 42-51.
- Uskova T.V., Chekavinskii A.N. Zakon o strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii: dostoinstva i nereshennye voprosy (ekspertnaya otsenka) . Ekonomicheskie i sotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz , 2014, no. 4, pp. 63-67.
- Shvetsov A.N. Sistematizatsiya instrumentov perspektivnogo planirovaniya territorial'nogo razvitiya: Nastoyatel'naya neobkhodimost' i konkretnye predlozheniya . Rossiiskiĭ ekonomicheskiĭ zhurnal , 2009, no. 5, pp. 12-47.
- Building globally competitive cities: The key to Latin American growth. McKinsey. 60 p.
- Florida R. Cities and the Creative Class. Routledge, 2005.
- Glaeser E. Triumph of the city. New York: The penguin press, 2011. 338 p.
- Higgs G., White S. Alternatives to Census-Based Indicators of Social Disadvantate in Rural Communities. Progress in Planning, 2000. 81 p.
- Hoering H., Seasons M.L. Monitoring Indicators in Local and Regional Planning Practice: Concepts and Issues. Planning, Practice and Research, 2004, volume 19, no. 1.
- Leautier F. Cities in a Globalizing World: Governance, Performance, and Sustainability, 2006. 576 p.
