Major city development forecast: designing the innovative future
Author: Lavrikova Yuliya Georgievna, Antipin Ivan Aleksandrovich, Pryadein Aleksei Anatolevich, Suvorova Arina Valerevna
Journal: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Section: Innovation development
Article in issue: 6 (48) т.9, 2016.
Free access
The article describes the results of application of the authors' approach to forecasting the development of the city (in the case of one of the largest Russian cities - Ekaterinburg). The main results of the development of multi-variant long-term forecast of Ekaterinburg socio-economic development are presented: the provisions of the approach used to create such documents are set out, a brief description of the forecasting methodology is given, the key aspects of city life in the context of the proposed development scenarios are forecasted, the main risks of long-term development of the city are described. The study is based on the use of the whole set of forecasting methods such as mathematical modeling, balance and cohort-component methods, extrapolation methods and expert evaluation method. The article describes the situation in Ekaterinburg regarding other cities and evaluates key development prospects of a municipal unit. It is recommended to use the approach based on the given scenario “junctions” (each of which gives two alternative scenarios); this helped identify eight options for the city transformation...
Forecasting, development scenario, major city, demographic forecast, economic forecast, labor resource forecast
Short address: https://sciup.org/147223889
IDR: 147223889 | UDC: 332.14 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.6.48.12
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