Product niches of the region’s chemical complex: Potential, barriers, and macroeconomic effects

The global economy is undergoing a period of transformation, which is characterized by a deep recession, increased market volatility, instability of the financial system, a slowdown in the formation of new transnational production chains, and a decrease in investment flows. The technological foundation of economic activity is changing, and new sectors are emerging. For the Russian Federation, the harsh sanctions imposed by Western countries after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine are an additional deterrent to development. In conditions of external constraints and uncertainty, the issue of finding ways to develop domestic industry and organize new production facilities, taking into account national priorities, is acute. The latter include the structural transformation of the economy and an increase in its technological efficiency. It is important in this context to study the issue of identifying promising types of economic activity and areas for completing regional value chains in key areas of the national economy, one of which is the chemical industry. The purpose of the study is to identify and scientifically substantiate strategic niches for the development of the chemical complex in the region. Research objectives: to analyze the region's potential for the development of the chemical industry, identify product niches of specialization, identify barriers to their implementation and assess the effects of the development of selected areas. The Vologda Region was chosen as the object of research. The information base of the study consists of data from the Federal State Statistics Service and its territorial division in the Vologda Region, the Federal Agency for Subsoil Use, industry rating agencies, input-output tables of the Vologda Region for 2020, and information on companies' investment plans. An analysis of the potential showed that the Vologda Region has its own resources for the production of forest chemical products, and logistical capabilities allow organizing other chemical production using imported raw materials. However, the production and technological potential of the industry's enterprises is limited by capacity utilization and significant depreciation of fixed assets, and the innovative potential is not sufficiently developed. The strategic priorities of the regional chemical complex have been identified, including the production of fertilizers, composites and new materials. Potential niches of specialization are substantiated, such as the production of polymer-metal composites, polymers for additive technologies, phosphogypsum building materials and forest chemicals. The multiplicative effect of the impact on the gross regional product of the production development of the identified niches is calculated. The technological, economic, industrial and environmental barriers that hinder the implementation of the proposed priority areas are highlighted. The scientific novelty of the study lies in identifying niches of promising specialization for the Vologda Region chemical complex. The results of the study can be used by regional authorities to substantiate strategic directions of economic policy.