Application of economic and mathematical methods in the study of inflation processes in Azerbaijan: Sarimax model and extended Fourier series model

In this study were applied and researched inflation cycles and forecasting quality mathematical methods . SARIMAX models and extended Fourier series model were applied in forecasting inflation processes. The study determines the cycles and intensity of inflation. The Fourier series model was extended with a dummy variable ( AFS - extended Fourier series model ) in order to consider economic shocks in the model.