Developing Viet Nam-Guangxi border trade under the Belt and Road Initiative: a SWOT analysis and strategic implications

This article examines the development of border trade between Viet Nam and China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during 2020-2025. Combining document analysis with descriptive statistics and a SWOT framework, it evaluates how infrastructure connectivity, institutional coordination, logistics services, digitalization, and financial linkages have reshaped transaction costs and cross-border exchange. The evidence shows that the BRI context has supported rapid trade expansion, faster logistics, and a gradual shift toward more formalized trade channels, especially after China's post-pandemic reopening. Nevertheless, structural weaknesses remain, including the predominance of fresh agricultural exports, limited processing capacity on the Vietnamese side, inconsistent standards and quarantine procedures, and persistent congestion and informal transactions at border gates. The article argues that sustainable growth in Viet Nam-Guangxi border trade requires not only hard infrastructure investment but also stronger soft connectivity in regulation, payment systems, cold-chain logistics, and supply-chain transparency.