Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1745
Vladimir Putin’s 25 years of presidential terms: “warrior”, “ruler”, “creator”
Статья научная
October 7, 2024, Minchenko Consulting Communication Group published a report entitled “The dynamics of Vladimir Putin’s image: From a “Warrior” to a “Ruler-Creator”, dedicated to analyzing the activities of the head of state over the past 25 years. The experts identify three images (“Warrior”, “Ruler”, “Creator”), which at different stages of Russian history were typical for the public figure of Vladimir Putin. Moreover, the consistent transformation of these images was determined mainly by two factors - the nature of the challenges facing the country and those facing the President personally, as well as the needs and expectations of the broad strata of Russian society. In the context of the general idea proposed by the specialists of Minchenko Consulting, we express our own point of view on the processes taking place in the country and in the dynamics of Vladimir Putin’s image throughout his presidential terms. We show the key role of the civilizational confrontation between Russia and the West in the transformation of the image of the President as an exponent of public expectations. We pay considerable attention to the analysis of the internal changes taking place in the country, following the results of three years of the special military operation. We present expert assessments characterizing the historical reasons for the special military operation, as well as Russia’s prospects in the emerging multipolar world. The paper also presents data from the current round of the monitoring of managerial decisions adopted by the President and the Government of the Russian Federation; we have been conducting the monitoring for more than two and a half years. Our contribution consists in an in-depth analysis of events and processes taking place in the country, which is presented in a historical context, based on expert assessments from a wide range of specialists in different fields of knowledge (economists, political scientists, sociologists, historians, etc.), as well as on the data of our own sociological surveys conducted in the monitoring mode, current reports in the media, own long-term experience in studying the effectiveness of public administration
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Vologda residents’ notions of happiness
Статья научная
The article evaluates the level of happiness in the Vologda Oblast in comparison with the Russian Federation and the countries of the world. It studies the influence of internal sensation of happiness on the perception of socio-political processes and demographic situation. Furthermore, the article analyzes some of the factors affecting the level of happiness (financial situation, professional activities, interpersonal relations, socio-demographic characteristics).
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Статья научная
The paper analyzes the dynamics and resources of volunteering in Russia for 2016–2024. The relevance of the study is due to the growing interest in volunteering, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as active government support, including the federal project “Social Activity”. The main aim of the work is to study the involvement of citizens in volunteering and identify key resources for its development, taking into account demographic and social changes. Scientific novelty of the research lies in a comprehensive analysis of volunteering through the prism of a resource-based approach, including social capital. The transformation of forms of volunteering from traditional to digital and occasional is shown, which distinguishes the work from previous studies. Special attention is paid to gender and territorial imbalances. The methodology includes an analysis of the results of a Rosstat labor force survey (2016–2024) and a sociological study in the Tyumen Region (N=1,430). The methods of structural and dynamic analysis, clustering, as well as statistical criteria (χ2, Student's t-test) are applied. The number of volunteers in Russia has tripled, despite its population decline. Such activities as fundraising, social assistance and animal welfare prevail, but their coverage does not exceed 3% of the population. A gender bias has been identified: women make up 72% of volunteers and spend more time volunteering. Engaging in volunteering depends to a great extent on social capital (trust, membership in organizations). The limitations of the study are related to incomplete representativeness of the data and predominance of government sources. Prospects for further research include studying the motivation of men, the effectiveness of digital volunteering formats, and development of programs for young people and retirees
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Volunteerism in Russia: Trends, regional differences and the impact of sociodemographic factors
Статья научная
The article presents the results of a study of volunteering in the Russian Federation from a regional perspective for the period 2022–2024 according to the following indicators: level of volunteerism, median age of volunteers, number of female volunteers per 1,000 male volunteers, number of rural volunteers per 1,000 urban volunteers, proportion of working-age volunteers in the total number of volunteers. The analysis is based on official data from Rosstat – a sample survey of volunteering workforce for 2022–2024. The study shows that the median age of Russians engaged in volunteering is increasing. As a rule, there are more women than men among the volunteers. The ratio of rural to urban volunteers is growing. The share of working-age volunteers in the total number of volunteers in Russia as a whole is quite stable and ranges from 73–74%. In the course of the study, we calculate the following labor market indicators: volunteers’ labor force participation rate, volunteers’ employment rate, volunteers’ unemployment rate (or the proportion of volunteers who are currently unemployed), ratio of the number of volunteers who are unemployed to the number of volunteers who are employed (per 1,000 employed volunteers). The relationship between the level of volunteerism and other indicators was determined based on the use of paired (linear) Pearson correlation coefficients and paired Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients. In addition, we conduct a statistical analysis of individual regional quintile groups formed on the basis of the values of the level of volunteerism in the regions. The article will be of interest to economists, sociologists, political scientists, and others interested in research on volunteerism in Russia.
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Статья научная
All-Russian vote on amendments to the Constitution, which was conducted from June 25 to July 1 of 2020, showed that a vote of confidence, granted by society to a current system of public governance and the President personally during previous presidential elections, was confirmed. With a high voter turnout (68%), 78% of them supported Vladimir Putin’s initiative to amend the Main Law. However, a detailed analysis of “pressure points” of the last vote (regions where the share of votes against constitutional amendments was above national average numbers) confirms experts’ opinions that an idea to unite society around this event did not work out. The lack of real changes in the solution of key issues related to overcoming flagrant social inequality and the growth of the level and quality of life, which would be visible to general population, leads to people’s exhaustion from another positive goals of socio-economic development that might not be fulfilled once again and remain only in a declarative form. It affected the dynamics of public opinion, and, in particular, it echoed in a high level of protest in most Russian regions (in 47 out of 86), its regional centers, and large industrial towns during all-Russian vote on amendments to the Constitution. At the same time, the President’s Executive Order on Russia’s national development goals through 2030, dated July 21, 2020, pushes back dates of national projects’ implementation (from 2024 to 2030) once again and additionally decreases the level of optimism toward the implementation of national development goals until 2024 - exactly until the next elections of the President of the Russian Federation. An analysis of factual information and expert assessments, carried out by the authors, forces to state that, despite another vote of confidence granted by society to the President and his system of governance, the future of Russia’s socio-economic development (at least until 2024-2030) remains unclear, and it increases residents’ fears for their own and their families’ life prospects, as well as for the country itself. In these circumstances, it is difficult to disagree with an opinion of several experts that, in order to overcome long-standing unresolved vital problems that concern population and improve the efficiency of the public administration system, it is necessary to take active steps (primarily by the President) toward the nationalization of ruling elites. Continuing balancing between liberal and state-patriotic forces in power may once again lead to failures in achieving key national development goals, which threatens the legitimacy and the very future of the Russian statehood.
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Статья научная
On September 17–19, 2021, the election to the State Duma of the Russian Federation of the eighth convocation took place in Russia. The article analyzes the outcome of the vote according to official data of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. The results of the past elections are considered broken down by federal district, constituent entity, and municipality of the Russian Federation. We analyze the dynamics of the outcome of the parliamentary elections for the period from 2007 to 2021. The results of the latest election are compared with the results of the RF presidential election (2018) and the all-Russian referendum on amendments to the Constitution (2020). We consider the latest parliamentary election in a broad context – as part of the internal Russian political process. In this regard, a significant part of the article is devoted to the analysis of specific managerial decisions made by the Russian President and aimed at addressing the issue of forming a new, post-Soviet statehood, the key elements of which were revealed in the President’s article “Russia at the turn of the Millennium” (1999). Official statistics, independent experts’ assessments and sociological research findings allow us to say that the head of state has adopted comprehensive and consistent decisions to achieve the tasks he formulated in 1999 (the Russian idea, a strong state, an efficient economy); but so far, not all the goals stated in these tasks have been achieved. At a meeting with deputies of the State Duma of the eighth convocation the President noted that the low level of Russians’ income was the main obstacle to stable development and demographic future. And it is the most objective self-assessment of the effectiveness of the entire system of public administration.
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Статья научная
The article deals with the problem of water economy subjects of the North-West federal district. Water economy problems of the Vologda region are considered in relation to the challenges of the Water Strategy of the Russian Federation for water resource supply of the country’s socio-economic development for the period till 2020. Based on the analysis of water supply (water use and sanitation) in the North-West region the priority areas of work to achieve the target indicators of the Water Strategy, established in 2020 are justified. While developing regions’ water programs for the period till 2020 it is suggested to take into account the trends to improve the structures of water management, to motivate users to the introduction of modern water-saving technologies.
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Ways and methods of economic integration of the North Caucasian regions
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The article deals with the possibility of further full-fledged economic integration of the North Caucasian Federal District subjects into the Russia's economic space and the possibility to include them in the system of interregional and international relations and large strategic projects. The author uses the techniques and researches of the state scientific institution “Council for the Study of Productive Forces under the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Russia and Russian Academy of Sciences” and her own methodological groundwork. It is proved that priority development of transport, fuel and energy sectors, creation of industrial clusters, wholesale agricultural markets, scientific and educational centers should be the basis for economic integration of the subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District.
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Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region
Статья научная
Enhancement of the regions' self-sufficiency in handling their socio-economic development issues predetermines their increasing importance in the search for new sources of economic growth and improvement of the quality of life, an important characteristic of which is nutrition, including the consumption of fruit and berries. This issue is particularly relevant for the European North of Russia, where the development of its own fruit and berry production is constrained by climatic conditions. These territories can find a source of economic growth in the formation of the fruit and berry market with a significant potential for development based on the resources of wild fruits and berries that the northern regions are rich in. The article describes the main spheres of functioning of the fruit and berry market in the northern regions through the development of integrated network structures that promote integration of fruit and berry production and processing, as well as support on the part of the authorities in creating appropriate conditions for the normal functioning of the market.
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Ways to reduce social inequality
Рецензия
In the context of new geopolitical, financial, economic and epidemiological challenges, the issues of ensuring a decent standard of living and quality of life for the Russian population are still a priority in Russia’s domestic policy. The relevance of this problem arouses scientific interest, which is confirmed by the publication of more than fifteen monographic studies over the past five years. The article analyzes the findings of a study published in 2022 in the monograph Standard of Living and Quality of Life of the Russian Population: From Reality to Designing the Future, prepared by a team of authors and edited by V.N. Bobkov, N.V Loktyukhina, E.F. Shamaeva. The authors of the book - economists, sociologists, specialists in the field of medicine, environmental protection and labor law - presented the results of four years of studying the components, social standards and indicators of the standard of living and quality of life in modern Russia, their qualitative identification and quantitative assessment in the context of excessive socio-economic inequality. The main advantage of the monograph is an interdisciplinary approach to studying the quality of life, which allows for a comprehensive analysis of this indicator of the state of society from the standpoint of economic, social and legal relations. The article notes the structuring of the material, the sequence of its presentation - from theory to methodology and practical recommendations, brevity and accuracy of judgments about the categories under consideration, and a clear perspective of the authors. The novelty of the proposed publication is due to the fact that it investigates new tools of governmental and corporate policy to regulate the standard of living and quality of life, in particular, the presentation of the authors’ concept of a medium-term national program to reduce absolute monetary poverty. These tools are becoming an important step toward reducing social inequality. In practice, this is “designing the future”, as the authors put it, and this is what provides the monograph with both scientific and practical significance.
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Welfare of the population as an indicator of modernization potential of the territory
Статья научная
The article presents the results of a research into population's welfare as the basis of modernization processes. The authors carried out a comprehensive analysis of statistical and sociological data and highlighted the specifics of welfare in Russia and in the Vologda Oblast in terms of formation and use of money income; they also revealed the proportion of the population who are objectively ready to economic modernization. The authors revealed the emerging positive trends that show increasing involvement of the population in the savings-and-credit models. However, the scale of changes is not so great, and it covers only a small part of highly well-off population. In order to assess regional specifics, the authors grouped the RF subjects according to the level of income inequality of the population and other parameters of welfare that have an impact on the modernization potential of a territory. Judging by the indicators of the selected four groups of regions, the largest socio-economic potential of modernization is observed in the subjects with high income inequality...
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Статья научная
This article is the third in a series of editorial publications released in April – August 2025 and dedicated to analyzing expert opinions on the necessity and feasibility of creating an official state ideology in the country. The relevance of this issue is driven, on the one hand, by national security concerns, which have sharply intensified since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, and on the other hand, by the goals of national development related to the need to define a vision for Russia's future in the context of the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. A synthesis of expert assessments, facts, statistical data, and monitoring sociological studies, which reflect the state of society and people's subjective opinions about the situation in the country, leads to the conclusion that one of Russia's key internal problems is the unsatisfactory quality of its ruling elites. A significant portion of them are unprepared for change, continue to live by the principles of the country's departing era of “liberal fog”, and in every way, willingly or unwillingly, hinder Russia's transition to a new stage of historical development, thereby jeopardizing its present and future. In this sense, the ideology proposed by many experts, which would be “mandatory for those who aspire to join the cohort of leaders of the Russian state” (S.A. Karaganov), appears to the authors as a completely logical and necessary step on the part of the President and the ruling political party. As long as there is no clear answer to the question “What kind of state are we building?” at all levels of government, such an answer is also absent among the general public, and as a consequence, people's real lives often diverge from the public rhetoric of the authorities. The article focuses on the practical possibilities of implementing an ideology that could take on the character of a “philosophy of a common destiny” (Zh.T. Toshchenko) and form the basis of a new Social Contract, the need for which many experts have noted for our country. The authors' contribution consists of the systematization of expert opinions, statistical data, and public opinion polls covering Russia's historical development from the late 1990s (from the final years of Boris Yeltsin's presidency), as well as actual cases of corruption and high treason within the country's ruling elites (which primarily indicate that many of their representatives cannot be relied upon, as they are guided by personal interests that differ from the interests of the country, state, and society), and the administrative decisions made by the President, the Government, and the State Duma of the Russian Federation in the context of the pressing task of developing an ideology and forming a new Social Contract in Russia
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What capitalism does Russia need?: methodological guidelines of the “new industrialization”
Статья научная
Modernization of the Russian economy should be carried out taking into consideration global trends and contradictions of the country's socio-economic development. The first trend is predetermined by the transition to the sixth technological mode: the creation and development of bio-, genetic and nanotechnology, quantum computers and new composite materials. Countries that missed the stage of preparation for the beginning of a new Kondratieff wave (the growth potential is laid in the first 15-20 years of the beginning of the cycle), will at best enter the stage of catching-up development. The second trend is defined by global competition for human capital and consists in the outflow of talented Russian youth to the West. Russia should develop a concept for the preservation and enhancement of human capital, which will create natural barriers against the loss of intellectual capital. The undervalued “live labor” forms the basis of strategic contradictions of Russia's socio-economic development between the declared policy of innovative development of the economy and a weak demand for innovation on the part of private enterprises...
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What hinders the development of small businesses: the view of the Murmansk oblast entrepreneurs
Статья научная
In recent years there has been a slowdown in the growth rate of Russia's sector of small and medium entrepreneurship; this issue once again brings to the fore the search for new ways and mechanisms in the management of its subjects. A necessary condition for such a search consists in focusing on the problems that hinder the development of this sector and that can be revealed exclusively in the formation of valuable and accurate information - the collective views of its representatives. In this regard, the information base for the analysis was found in the results of several studies initiated by the all-Russian public organization “OPORA Rossii” (Moscow), its regional branch in Murmansk and the Northern Chamber of Commerce and Industry; the results were obtained in the course of the questionnaire survey, which was conducted among entrepreneurs with the purpose of revealing their assessment of the terms of doing business. The generalization of the research results and information obtained by the author in cooperation with representatives of small business and workers of the Prosecutor's Office has identified the main problems, their causes and consequences of their impact on the activity of the Murmansk Oblast business sector...
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Статья научная
In the article, we tried to express our opinion in the framework of aacontroversy that unfolded between the New Zealand researcher John Hattie and his opponents. The dispute concerns the validity of the arguments made by the scientist in his book Visible Learning (2009) on the size of external and internal effects that influence the performance of secondary schools. The subject of discussion in the article is not chosen randomly. Hattie's ideas are widely used in the educational policy of foreign countries (especially Australia), but will they be relevant in the Russian reality? A number of educational innovations borrowed from Western countries do not have unequivocal approval in Russian society (this applies to the final exam in the form of testing, the Bologna system of higher education etc.). In our study, we analyze Hattie's arguments and evaluate their scientific validity. For this purpose, we generalize arguments of the scientist and his opponents (for some reason the criticism by his opponents is not mentioned in the Russian-language literature). Hattie's book offers a scientific approach to the substantiation of indicators that affect school education performance to varying degrees. Among these parameters, a special role belongs to productive activities of teachers aimed at self-education and creating a positive climate in the classroom, whereas the contribution of the amount of professional competences of the teacher in lesson planning and content is clearly undervalued. Such thoughts, not fully accepted by the scientific community, became the basis for further controversy. Our article highlights methodological and cultural approaches to the criticism of “visible learning”. It is found that the arguments of Hattie's opponents relate to different aspects of his research, but are purely theoretical. We calculate the coefficients of variation and carry out a statistical analysis of the estimated model (which has not been done before). Having interpreted the data obtained, we find out the heterogeneity of the sizes of the effects in Hattie's model. On this basis, we make practical conclusions about the methodological and conceptual possibilities of using the New Zealand researcher's approach in the realities of Russian education. The article will be of interest to both educators and all those interested in social policy issues.
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Статья научная
The paper analyzes the problem of the lack of a state ideology in Russia. The increasingly urgent need for state ideology is indicated by the regular appearance of “black swans” such as the attempted armed coup carried out by E. Prigozhin, head of the private military company Wagner Group (June 24, 2023), the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister T. Ivanov (April 23, 2024), the detention of ex-governor of the Kursk Region A. Smirnov (April 15 2025), etc. Such events in the country’s life pose a real threat to national security, especially in the context of the special military operation and the ongoing “acute” phase of the civilizational conflict between Russia and NATO countries. Their consequences are difficult to overestimate, since human lives and the threat to the existence of Russian statehood are behind them. Our view (based on expert opinions, facts, analysis of the legislative activities of government bodies, public opinion polls) proceeds from the fact that the reason for the appearance of such “black swans” has deep socio-cultural and moral grounds: corruption at all levels of government, inability and unwillingness of the ruling elites to meet the agenda of the future dictated by SMO goals; they are a consequence of the deformation of the “cultural code” of the Russian civilization, which occurred as a result of almost 35 years of influence of the Western culture of the “consumer society” on the consciousness of Russian society. This is especially true with regard to the country’s ruling elites - in relation to them, we should talk about the almost 70-year period (since the time of the Khrushchev Thaw) of the penetration and dominance of Western values, which are based on the achievement of personal material gain. The experience of the Republic of Belarus, where Directive 12 “On the implementation of the foundations of the ideology of the Belarusian State” was adopted on April 9, 2025, also indicates that in the current extremely difficult geopolitical conditions, the need for a state ideology has objectively matured. At the same time, despite the active policy of the state to combat corrupt officials in the management system, to create educational conditions for the prevention of this problem in the long term, for future generations of Russians, it has not yet been possible to solve it. Many experts point out that this cannot be done without an appropriate “ideology of rejection of corruption”, both among civil servants and in society as a whole. Our contribution consists in analyzing the socio-cultural and historical foundations of the current state of the problem of corruption in power and, more broadly, considering it as one of the many manifestations of the value orientations of a significant part of the ruling elites formed under the dominance of the Western ideology of the “consumer society”
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