Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1801
Статья научная
The paper considers municipal entities of the Novosibirsk Region in terms of the concentration of population and other resources in the metropolitan area. The aim of the research is to study the influence of population concentration in the Novosibirsk agglomeration on the development of the region's municipalities and the dynamics of the region's economy as a whole. The information base includes data from Rosstat and its Novosibirsk territorial division. The research period covers the time interval from 2005 to 2022. We propose an approach that allocates three territorial sectors of the economy, one of which is the Novosibirsk agglomeration, the other two include successfully developing and depressed municipalities, depending on the dynamics of their indicators. The resulting sectors are adjusted based on the location of municipal entities. Peripheral municipalities, being under the influence of the Novosibirsk agglomeration, are characterized by significant population migration, but economic indicators are growing faster in successfully developing municipalities compared to the Novosibirsk agglomeration. Using the Cobb - Douglas production functions constructed for three sectors we assess the impact of an increase or decrease in migration to the Novosibirsk agglomeration from other sectors. The results obtained make it possible to put forward some guidelines that will allow individual peripheral territories to develop successfully, primarily by creating favorable living conditions for the population. The study is part of a research project to assess the impact of the formation and development of agglomerations on the economy of the region as a whole. The results obtained can be used in regional strategic and program documents
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Статья научная
The state has set a task to expand the production of high-tech civilian products for the enterprises of the military-industrial complex. Many defense enterprises are located in single-industry towns, which makes it relevant to analyze the mutual influence of the diversification of city-forming enterprises and cities' development. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of the new model of diversification on the development of the territories of presence in the context of the nuclear industry. The research methodology is based on the principles of system analysis and institutional economic theory. The authors use the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, and logical modeling. The basis is the theory of the social contract. The research proposes a three-level model of the social contract, detailing the interaction of an individual with three levels of public power - federal, regional, and local. The feature of the municipal part of the social contract for single-industry towns is highlighted: its third party is the cityforming enterprise that creates a number of basic benefits. In single-industry towns, where the nuclear industry enterprises are the main city-forming enterprises, the municipal part of the social contract changes: a state corporation becomes one of the contract parties instead of a city-forming enterprise. This is due to the introduction of a new model of diversification of the state corporation's activities. The authors prove that changing the social contract can give the cities of presence new qualified jobs, and state corporations can help to form a personnel reserve, fulfill the goals in the field of defense production diversification and the creation of new high-tech businesses. Testing the modified model of the social contract on the example of closed administrative-territorial entities of the nuclear industry revealed local governments' and the population's interest in it, the possibility of cities' long-term sustainable development, including improving the comfort of living. The results of the study can be used to develop strategic documents for spatial development, programs for single-industry towns' development, city-forming enterprises and holdings in various industries.
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The impact of the pandemic on demographic processes in the Russian Arctic
Статья научная
Russia has achieved a high level of Internet connectivity and the use of digital technologies; this helps to accumulate and systematize huge amounts of population data. Modern challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, require a more prompt and detailed analysis of the demographic situation. Understanding the information collected by digital platforms and services can improve the quality of decision-making and be widely used in science and management. The aim of our study is to assess the change in the demographic situation in the Russian Arctic under the influence of the pandemic, with the use of new sources of population data that have emerged as a result of digitalization of the economy and public life. The article proposes an outline for the formation of a demographic knowledge base by combining traditional population statistics with data from digital platforms. We consider advantages and disadvantages of new data sources, features and examples of their application. We provide a detailed description of demographic processes in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation in 2020-2021 with the use of municipal statistics, data from Yandex online platforms and international pandemic databases. With the help of the proposed outline, we consider the dynamics of morbidity, mortality and vaccination against coronavirus infection. We study the reaction of the population of the Russian Arctic to the pandemic by analyzing the structure of search queries and the intensity of movement in city streets. We reveal the specifics of the spread of COVID-19 in the Arctic and estimate the impact of the pandemic on the natural population change and human mobility in the Arctic Zone. We calculate excess mortality at the regional and municipal levels. Based on the vaccination rates, we draw conclusions about the prospects for further development of the pandemic. The results obtained can be used for development of socio-demographic policy measures and construction of demographic forecasts for the Northern and Arctic territories.
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to a meaningful analysis of the impact of the retirement age increase on the economy of the Murmansk Oblast and the attitude of its residents. The pension system, which includes protectionism for the population of the North, has a significant impact on the economy, social life, and migration of the population. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of the retirement age changes on social and economic processes is particularly relevant for the Northern and Arctic territories. Three objectives were achieved: 1. Considering the change of the retirement age, the forecast for the number of able-bodied population of the Murmansk Oblast was made. It is shown that the increase of the retirement age will halt the steady decline of able-bodied population in the region, but it will not break the trend. Comparison with the results of the forecast for Russia as a whole showed that it qualitatively distinguishes the situation in the region from the national situation. 2. The features of GRP production in the Murmansk region, based on economic and statistical modeling, are reviewed. It is established that, with the current structure of the economy, a slight reduction of the decrease rate of the able-bodied population number will not have a significant impact on the production of GRP. 3. On the basis of the survey, conducted according to a representative regional sample of the Murmansk Oblast in 2019, attitudes of the Murmansk’s population were revealed. There is a very painful perception of the retirement age increase by the population; there is a persistent opinion that change of the retirement age does not meet the interests of the population of the North and the Arctic. A negative effect of the retirement age increase was diagnosed: a change of migration attitudes among the most significant group of the Murmansk Oblast’s population (from the perspectives of regional production) - people of young (18-29 years old) and middle (30-49 years old) ages. For example, a significant number of members of these age groups have already decided to leave the Murmansk Oblast. They link their decision to the factor of the retirement age increase. Thus, the positive effect - a decrease of the rate of the able-bodied population decline in the Murmansk region, caused by the retirement age increase - will be offset by a negative effect - the growth of the rate of migration losses in the region.
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The impact rating of academic journals in economics: ranking criteria and methodology
Статья научная
The rapid growth of the number of academic journals has brought to the fore the issue of choosing the leading ones among them. In this paper, we summarize current methodological approaches to the evaluation of scientific journals and substantiate the applicability of bibliometric indicators for assessing the impact of publications in the scientific community. The results of comparative assessment of economic journals affiliated with RAS institutions are presented in the form of impact rating based on the analysis of bibliometric data of the Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI) and reflecting the level of impact of publications included in the RSCI. We substantiate the composition of indicators that enable us to make a comprehensive assessment of journals and that are available to be used to verify the results. We prove that the composition of the criteria and the method of their aggregation are suitable for ranking scientific journals; this is confirmed by the fact that the results correlate with the data of other ratings...
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Статья научная
Economic approaches to rational nature management and environmental protection are becoming increasingly important in environmental management. There are inevitable contradictions between economic activity and natural systems that reveal in varying degree and that have different ways of solution. The formation of an effective economic mechanism of nature management and environmental protection is a preferred direction in this case. The article investigates the payment for natural resources, fines for violations, as well as the cost of the natural environment restoration as the most significant factors in environmental protection.
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The importance of corporate social services for the sustainable development of the company
Статья научная
In the context of modern global challenges such as social inequality, environmental degradation and limited availability of social services, the importance of corporate social policy is increasing. Companies strive not only to enhance financial stability, but also to create favorable conditions for their employees and society as a whole. In this context, corporate social responsibility (CSR) plays a special role, including corporate philanthropy, social initiatives, and infrastructure development to improve the quality of life. The article analyzes key aspects of CSR, in particular corporate philanthropy, clarifies the content of this concept, and focuses on the experience of its implementation by PJSC Tatneft in the framework of CSR, on the basis of which a sociological research program has been formed. To identify the factors determining the success of social policy in the provision of corporate charitable services, calculations were performed in the R environment through command queries. We propose a model that helps not only to quantify the current level of social policy, but also identify key areas for its improvement in order to increase employee satisfaction. The paper examines the impact of digitalization on the effectiveness of corporate philanthropy: in the context of the digital transformation of the corporate environment, new management approaches are being formed, which contributes to scalability and integration into long-term sustainable development strategies. The methodological basis of the research includes analysis of scientific literature, regulatory documents and practical cases. We also use economic and statistical methods, correlation and regression analysis, scenario forecasting to assess the prospects for the development of corporate charitable services. Findings of the research confirm the positive impact of social policy on the long-term development of enterprises and the formation of a sustainable business model. The recommendations we propose can be useful for companies seeking to improve their corporate social responsibility system and implement effective corporate philanthropic initiatives
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The importance of research on reproductive intentions for fertility forecasting
Статья научная
In the context of depopulation and demographic aging, the importance of forecasting population dynamics is increasing. Due to the high behavioral determinism of fertility, special attention should be paid to reproductive intentions, since they play an essential role in shaping birth rate, which in turn determines population reproduction by more than 90%. Research on reproductive behavior is carried out at both the federal and regional levels, which indicates that the array of data on reproductive intentions and their implementation has been accumulated. The aim of the work is to assess the possibility of using data on reproductive intentions in forecasting fertility. Based on the data from a reproductive plans survey carried out by Rosstat, we assess the prospects for using the empirical indicator "expected number of children", modifying it to "expected number of more children" if the parents already have children, in comparison with the number of children born during the period in question in real generations of women born in 1970–1994. The findings of the research indicate a fairly high stability of the gap between the expected and actual number of children, which suggests the possibility of using information about reproductive intentions in order to predict fertility. We reveal that for the generations who completed fertility the mentioned difference was 0.19, for women of the last fifteen (out of 35) years of fertility – 0.3. For women under 35, the gap is more significant – 0.72. We substantiate the possibility of using data on reproductive intentions to predict births of various order, which is especially important when planning the total fertility rate and the proportion of large families. The results obtained expand methodological foundations for forecasting fertility, which is of practical importance for improving the effectiveness of family and demographic policy in Russia.
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Статья научная
The paper presents an analysis of disability indicators in European countries, where the increase in the number of persons with disabilities is largely determined by the high primary disability in the elderly. The goal of our research is to identify distinctive characteristics of disability in groups of European countries that have different levels of economic development and conduct different policies in the field of healthcare. To achieve this goal, we solve the following research tasks: we arrange European countries into groups; we make a comparative evaluation of disability rate in the population in selected groups; we analyze of the quality and accessibility of healthcare as a factor that influences disability indicators; we propose recommendations aimed to reduce the disability rate in Russia’s population. We group European countries into six clusters according to disability indicators, the proportion of elderly persons in the population and healthy life expectancy at age 60. The greatest similarity of these parameters is observed in the countries that have similarities in geographical position and historical experience of participation in political associations. The Russian situation is characterized by worse values of healthy life expectancy and a relatively low proportion of elderly population in comparison with the situation in most other European countries. The discussion part of our paper considers the quality and availability of healthcare. In Russia, a significant part of older citizens who have the greatest risk of developing disabling pathologies cannot afford to receive treatment in private medical organizations. The effectiveness of rehabilitation measures for people with disabilities remains low. In conclusion, we summarize the arguments in favor of the use of disability indicators in assessing the effectiveness of countries’ health policies. We propose directions of work to reduce disability in Russia. The results of the study can be useful for social management workers and for scientists whose research interests affect the problems associated with disability of the population.
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The inflation and unemployment processes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic
Статья научная
The article considers the features of the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in related developing economies during the economic crisis and after it. Latin American countries (2020- 2022) are the object of the study. The aim of the work is to empirically verify the presence and closeness ofsignificantrelationships betweenthe processesofinflationand unemployment, includingthe possibility of taking into account other macroeconomic variables affecting the processes of inflation and unemployment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The relevance of the study is determined by the possibility of monitoring the development of the economic crisis. The analysis of linear regressions on pseudo-panel data was carried out. The general model took into account the size and features of the economy, economic policy, as well as some social effects (the dynamics of unemployment and inflation, specific mortality due to coronavirus, the size of the labor resources for the economy). The models constructed help to study the general crisis dynamics and show the rate of recovery for the trends. The novelty of the results includes an assessment of the effectiveness of management tools in the context of strong external shocks. It is empirically confirmed that there was no direct relationship between the processes of inflation and unemployment in Latin American countries during the period under consideration. A detailed analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors and factors reflecting the behavior of state institutions may be useful for considering the risks of anti-crisis measures. Inflation is the most controllable process that can be influenced by tools. Unemployment, as a subject of regulation, is a more complex process involving various state institutions; at that, the success of decisions depends mainly on taking into account the country’s export specialization, the pace and severity of anti-crisis measures.
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Статья научная
The instability of market economy development causes continuous changes in the activity of higher educational establishments. The article deals with the processes, taking place in the system of higher professional education in the Russian Federation in recent decades. On the basis of the analysis of statistical data and normative acts of the Government and Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, the key global and national trends in higher education are identified: increasing demand for higher education, resulted in its considerable offer (the growth of quantitative indicators is not always accompanied by improvement of higher education quality); reduction in the total number of students due to the demographic situation worsening; transition to a multi-level system of higher education under the Bologna process; change in specialties patterns and directions of training specialists with higher professional education due to the economy structural reforms and labor market needs; aggravation of competition. The tendencies lead to the emergence of demographic, political and economic risks. To reduce negative impact of the external risks to the universities' activity it is necessary to develop corresponding state educational policy in the sphere of higher education and risk management in universities.
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The influence of ferrous metallurgy corporations’ interests on the regional development
Статья научная
In the Russian scientific literature there are many papers published in which special attention is paid to the discrepancy between the economic interests of the metallurgical companies owners and enterprises controlled by them, and the tasks of national development and addressing the problems of social and economic growth in the regions and cities where the facilities of ferrous metallurgy industry operate. However, the global crisis that broke out in the second half of 2008 has brought the new plots in this respect. In this article, the crisis period is seen as the time of the most vivid manifestation of the business owners’ interests in the case of metallurgical holding “Severstal”. Particular attention is paid to the influence of these interests on the socio-economic development of the Vologda oblast - a region where the powers of the parent company of the holding OJSC “Cherepovets metallurgical plant” OJSC “Severstal”, one of the leaders of the domestic ferrous industry are located...
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The influence of the agglomeration effect on the demographic policy of territories
Статья научная
In the context of increasing spatial polarization and uneven urbanization, the central question becomes the empirical assessment of the agglomeration effect's influence on the demographic dynamics of peripheral settlements. This study is devoted to a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the distance of peripheral settlements from the core of an urban agglomeration and changes in their population during the 2010–2021 intercensal period. The theoretical and methodological basis is formed by the concepts of center-periphery systems and spatial polarization. The research covers 40 urban agglomerations in Russia and is based on studying the demographic dynamics of about 25,000 settlements. The methodology included: determining the geodesic distances from each peripheral settlement to the corresponding core; calculating four metrics of demographic dynamics: absolute, relative, logarithmic growth, and average annual growth rate; estimating paired Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients between distance and demographic indicators. The empirical data is based on the results of the 2010 and 2020 All-Russian Population Censuses. Overall, for the entire set of peripheral settlements, a weak but stable negative monotonic dependence was recorded. Based on the analysis results, agglomerations were divided into three groups: those with a strong negative gradient (18 agglomerations, predominantly in Siberia and the Urals), a moderate gradient (15 agglomerations, including the largest ones – Moscow and Saint Petersburg), and no significant gradient (7 agglomerations). No positive correlations were found in any case. The practical significance of the results lies in substantiating the priorities of demographic policy: the need for targeted support of remote zones, the development of sub-centers, and the consideration of transport accessibility.
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Статья научная
The article represents the new results of the ongoing researches “The influence of the metallurgical corporation owners’ interests over the national and regional development”, which are carried out in the ISEDT RAS under the direction of Doctor of Economics, Professor V.A. Ilyin. The first article, which dealt with that problem, represented the analysis of the financial and economical activity of the largest ferrous metallurgy corporations in Russia (OJSC “Severstal”, Novolipetsk Steel, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works) with all their segments on the basis of the reports prepared by the international standards. However, those reports didn’t contain sufficient information about the parent enterprises of the corporations. This article analyzes the financial and economic activity of OJSC “Cherepovets Iron and Steel Complex “Severstal”. The analysis is performed according to the annual account submitted in accordance with Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) and published on the official website of the company
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The infrastructure support for the development of the youth sector in the regional labor market
Статья научная
The youth is a necessary component in the labor market able not only to occupy one of its sectors, but also successfully adapt and further expand its share. The article presents the analysis of the youth segment of the labor market functioning and development in the regional breakdown (case study of the Tyumen Oblast), which has revealed its inherent trends: first, the demographic consequences of the decline in the number of young people; second, the asymmetry in the received information; third, institutional imbalances characterized by uneven supply and demand; and fourth, hidden unemployment. These problems are significant barriers limiting the development of the youth sector of the labor market. The hypothesis is the assumption that the development of the youth sector of the labor market and successful inclusion of the youth in the system of social and labor relations can be facilitated by the developed system of infrastructure support that can create favorable conditions for professional fulfilment of young people...
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Статья научная
Breaking out of a demographic trap is a priority of national policy in Russia. To achieve this goal, the national project “Demography” was adopted. The purpose of our study is to review current trends in European family policy in the case of Germany and to identify opportunities for applying foreign experience in improving the provision of institutional support to family policy in the Russian Federation. In our work, we use methods of institutional and statistical analysis. Unlike the studies of other authors, our own assessment of the effectiveness and sufficiency of expensive measures being developed in Russia is based on an institutional analysis that we conduct so as to reveal trends in European family policy on the example of Germany, which is characterized by an institutional logic of family policy similar to Russia. Family policy in Germany is based on increasing public spending on the creation of a developed system of social infrastructure. Both countries focus on increasing the birth rate and the development of social infrastructure that allows women not to abandon their career; but it is assumed that for Russia, the relevant implications will be more significant. As a result of accelerated construction of kindergartens in major agglomerations of Germany, an increase in the birth rate is demonstrated. However, this effect is mostly caused by the migration wave of 2015, while immigrants are insensitive to the measures being implemented. In addition, this leads to an outflow of population from other regions. The significance of the article lies in the fact that the consideration of the contradictions between various courses of family policy in Germany over the past 20 years has revealed the possibilities of using foreign experience in improving the institutional support of family policy in Russia. Based on the analysis we carried out, and taking into consideration the experience of Germany, we propose recommendations in the field of socioeconomic policy that can specify the parameters of the national project “Demography” in terms of taking into account regional demographic situation.
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The issues of asymmetry of corporate and public interests in the food market
Статья научная
The article analyzes the present-day condition of Russia’s food market from the viewpoint of coordination of interests of population and corporate interests of producers. The author points out that the provisions of the existing legal documents regulating the quality and safety of foodstuffs facilitate the growth of asymmetry in these interests. The article considers the manifestation of imbalance and the consequences of consumption of foodstuffs, produced with the use of new technology and receipts. It proposes the ways to smooth the asymmetry of interests by enhancing the role of experts in drafting the state decisions on the development the national food market from the standpoint of complying with the principles of food products safety.
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The issues of tax burden distribution in Russia's economy
Статья научная
Tax burden has a direct influence on socio-economic processes and is one of the main criteria for evaluating the current tax system. But there still exist certain simplified views on the level of tax burden, which is identified with the actual transfer of payments to the budget. The article highlights the results of a research into the tax burden of Russia’s economy. The main goal was to identify the trends in the distribution of tax burden and its actual level. The main conclusion of the study consists in the following: the ongoing tax reforms have not led to the establishment of an efficient fiscal mechanism, which will facilitate the implementation of taxation equality principle and take into consideration the opportunities of tax-payers to pay compulsory payments and develop the production. Meanwhile, there is the potential for tax maneuver with regard to a number of industries.
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The link between unemployment and industrial production: the Fourier approach with structural breaks
Статья научная
The purpose of this study was to investigate the long-term relationship between unemployment and industrial production during structural breaks in the United States. We used monthly data from the Industrial Production Index and the unemployment rate between January 1948 and October 2018 to analyze this relationship. We found the stationarity of the time series used using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test, which enabled a stationarity analysis, including with the existence of structural breaks. As a result of the stationarity analysis, we did not find any stationarity in either series. We then used a Fourier Shin cointegration analysis to investigate the long-term relationship between the industrial production index and the unemployment rate. This test demonstrates its difference from other cointegration tests considering the time and shape of these breaks in the presence of structural breaks. According to the cointegration analysis results, we found a long-term relationship between the U.S. unemployment rate and the industrial production index variables. These results indicate that sudden structural changes in the industrial production index have an effect on the U.S. unemployment rate in the long term. We then used the Least Squares with Breaks Bai-Perron break type method to determine the structural break periods and the coefficients of these periods. We found the years 1958, 1974, 1990, and 2007 to be when the structural changes occurred.
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