Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1692
Trends and promising models forming industrial clusters in the Russian Federation
Статья научная
The purpose for the research is to develop and substantiate the models forming regional industrial clusters amid modern Russian economy. The article presents performance indicators of economic space clustering in Russian regions, identifies the main stages and prospects for generating of the “fourth wave” of clustering. The study formulates the quantitative approach to identifying regional industrial clusters and their further parameterization in the framework of a comprehensive multi-level clustering model of economic space of the region. In contrast to similar studies, the research focuses on trends in the formation of innovative multi-cluster units which integrate cluster initiatives for the development of high-tech industrial production. The scientific novelty is presented by the model of inter-sector interaction between current regional industrial clusters, as well as the author's model of perspective development of cluster initiatives amid innovation-driven economy...
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Trends and prospects in sociodemographic dynamics of Russia: philosophical and economical approach
Статья научная
The study is aimed at analyzing the long-term historical dynamics of sociodemographic processes in Russia over the period of 500 years and elaborating the directions for overcoming the current sociodemographic crisis. The novelty of the research consists of considering cyclic sociodemographic processes with a significant horizon period (half a millennium), and studying the impact of government regulations in the country starting from the “the Time of Troubles”, through the reforms of 1861, the revolution of 1917 and the transformation of 1991, on demographic bifurcations. The authors introduce the statistical information regarding the population of Russia from 1500 to the present moment; the researchers propose to use the philosophical and economical approach (the theory of population economy) analyzing the population problems based on the theory of economy's philosophy and the theory of economy by S.N. Bulgakov and Yu.M. Osipov, the professors from the Lomonosov Moscow State University; and by 2025 to elaborate and adopt the social doctrine of the Russian Federation. Using the historical material the authors prove that the mechanisms and institutions of state regulation in the country can create conditions affecting the change of the population's reproductive behavior. The article presents the comparative analysis of the proposed theory of “population economy” and traditional ones of economic demography and population economics, and describes the main postulates of the theory of “population economy”. The researchers mark the factors that should be taken into account in composing the social doctrine of the Russian Federation. The research results can be used for justifying the long-term strategy of the sociodemographic policy in Russia.
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Статья научная
Since 2008, in the Editorial section of the journal, we have been monitoring the effectiveness of public administration; this helps us to analyze the consistent steps that the President makes in order to build new foundations of the Russian statehood, which was, in fact, completely destroyed in 1991. Besides, we assess the effectiveness of the President’s decisions from the point of view of the broad strata of the Russian population (voters), whose opinion is one of the main criteria for the effectiveness of the public administration system and the work of the head of state. In order to form an objective and unbiased view of the events and processes taking place in Russia and abroad, we use assessments obtained from a wide range of specialists in various fields: political analysts, economists, sociologists, philosophers, representatives of civil society. No less important is our regular access to a significant number of statistical, sociological, Russian and foreign databases; by using them comprehensively, we can look at the situation in the country and assess the effectiveness of public administration from the point of view of not only individual experts, but also voters. The main information source of sociological data in our research is the public opinion monitoring that we have been conducting in the Vologda Oblast since 1996. Regularly, once every two months, we carry out a survey covering 1.5 thousand residents of the region, thus obtaining an average annual “cross-section” of public opinion based on the estimates of nine thousand voters representing the main social strata and groups that differ in income, territory of residence, employment, marital status, education and many other socio-demographic characteristics. Due to a monitoring nature of the research, we can observe how, in the course of time, the events and decisions taken by the head of state are lined up in a clear, consistent, logically verified line, which many experts can see. But the majority of voters who observe “with the naked eye” the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities, do not see this line, because it is perceived on a subconscious and routine level, that is, based on the general opinion prevailing in their environment and stereotypes that people develop through their own life experience, the experience of relatives and friends (including negative life experience of the 1990s). This is why our editorial articles often supplement the analysis of latest events and processes in Russia and abroad with a retrospective look at the management decisions that preceded them. We pay special attention to the principle of historicism, and in this regard it is important for us to build a chronology of events. The current article is the last one in 2021; it briefly summarizes the analysis of public administration effectiveness in the context of Vladimir Putin’s presidential terms, with an emphasis on the first four years of the fourth presidential cycle (2018-2021).
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Trends in the development of education sphere in Russian regions
Статья научная
The article presents the analysis of the dynamics of education development in the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2010-2012. The regions are classified by the growth rate of the indicators of education development. The place of the Vologda Oblast in these processes, as well as the degree of compliance of regional education development with the national results, are defined.
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Trends in the development of forestry in Russia and Finland
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the forestry in Russia and Finland considered through economic relations developing under the influence of national forest legislation and state forest management systems. The purpose of the article is to assess the trends in the development of forest relations formed within the framework of national forest regulations and their respective forest management mechanisms on the example of two countries: Russia and Finland. The study is based on a system approach to forestry considered from an ecological and economic perspective, using subject-object, abstract and logical methods, comparative, spatial, statistical analysis, modern theories of sustainable development, as well as foreign and domestic experience of forest relations. The research novelty lies in revealing trends in the development of forest economy formed under the influence of national forest legislation systems, forest management systems taking into account population’s opinion. The ratio of organizational-administrative and economic methods of forest management by public authorities of the two countries are analyzed. The economic efficiency of forest management in two countries is compared through contrasting costs and revenues of forestry. The positive and negative trends of the Russian forest economy since the beginning of the administrative reform in the country are analyzed. Trends in forest economy, environment and sociology showed are more negative rather than positive. The research results can be in demand by research institutions forecasting the development of sectoral economies, forest organizations for building economic relations between the state, forestry business and the population. The study can be continued in terms of assessing trends in the development of forestry as an eco-economic system with a long manufacturing cycle, taking into account the new paradigm of thinking about the role of renewable forest resources in human life.
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Trends in the spatial development of regions in the northwest of Russia in the 21st century
Статья научная
Russia, being the largest country in the world in terms of territory, attaches great importance to the effective use of its vast space. The paper considers findings of a monitoring of the current situation and key trends regarding spatial development of the Northwestern Federal District and the RF constituent entities included in it. Spatial development of the macro region is studied from the position of centerperipheral and frame approaches; spatial organization is considered taking into account the transformation of the settlement, production, economic and infrastructural frames. The conclusion is made about the increasing nature of the centripetal vector of development and peripherization at the macro and intraregional levels (this is especially acute in the regions of the North). In addition, the paper presents current estimates (2020-2023) of the ranks of Northwestern regions among RF constituent entities on key indicators of spatial development, which can be used by federal and regional authorities as part of monitoring and revising their policies. We prove that an important task is to create conditions conducive to the development of the spatial frame of the macro region by unlocking the potential of various kinds of localities (cities and agglomerations of various levels of hierarchy, rural, industrial periphery). We substantiate a set of measures to increase the connectivity of the macro region’s space, which are in line with the priorities of the new Concept and draft Strategy for Spatial Development of the Russian Federation until 2036.
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Trends of social expenditures in the north of Russia
Статья научная
The article reveals the features of social expenditures in the North of Russia. It contains the analysis of the main sources of funding such as regional and municipal budgets and off-budget funds. The following trends are revealed: heightened social costs caused by high life-support expenses, increasing of social expenditures, reinforcement of social policy due to the raise in pensions, smoothing of spatial and structural differences.
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Trends of the development of municipal regions in the national economic space
Статья научная
Concentration of population and economic activity in large and largest urban agglomerations, together with the transformation of the system of strategic planning in Russia, cause great challenges for less populated municipal entities, situated in less urbanized territories, the main of which is the municipal district. On the one hand, local self-government bodies of municipal districts are forced to work in conditions of a shrinking resource base. On the other hand, to ensure the implementation of strategic planning documents on federal and regional levels, including ones related to spatial development. In this context, a scientifically justified assessment of the economic and spatial development of municipal districts is important. It may serve as the basis for making decisions on the usage of strategic and tactical tools for managing the territory of a municipal entity. The purpose of the study is to determine development trends of municipal districts as a specific object in the economic space of the region. The methodological basis of the article is based on concepts of the economic space. The assessment of the economic and spatial development was based on groups of indicators that reflect three parameters of the economic space: intensity, the development of the physical basis, and connectivity. On the basis of the results of calculating the presence indices and analyzing time series, a generalized score of the economic and spatial development of municipal districts is given. According to it, the types of trends, depending on the impact of the economic space of the region (constructive or destructive), are identified. Approbation of the methodology on the example of municipal districts of the Chelyabinsk Oblast showed that urban areas have a significant impact on the economic space of the region in the field of agricultural production, despite the industrial specialization of the region; it confirmed the trend of movement of labor and capital into urban districts; allowed stating negative dynamics of the development of physical basis of the economic space and the unsatisfactory situation in terms of the connectivity of the economic space. The analysis made it possible to formulate four directions of the economic and spatial development of municipal districts. It may become the basis of tactical and strategic tools for regional and municipal management.
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Trends of the fourth industrial revolution
Статья научная
A review of the monograph: Schwab K. The Fourth Industrial Revolution.Translated from English. Moscow: Izd-vo “E”, 2017. 208 p., ill. (Top Business Awards)
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Trust and its role in the modernization development of the region
Статья научная
The purpose of this article is to analyze theoretical approaches to the concept of social trust, to assess the level of confidence, to show its role in the modernization and development of the region. According to the author, trust is a set of socially responsible and socially confirmed expectations of individuals in relation to other individuals, organizations, institutions, rules and regulations that constitute the fundamental content of life and support sustainability and cohesion of society. Based on the popular typology of trust proposed by Anthony Giddens, the author analyzes the state of institutional trust in the Vologda Oblast. Using the data of the public opinion monitoring carried out by ISEDT RAS, the article analyzes the Vologda Oblast residents’ trust in major political institutions. The author identifies factors that generate trust, studies the composition of the groups of people according to trust, and shows the effects of a low level of institutional trust...
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Trust in the context of non-economic factors in modernization development
Статья научная
The article considers the problem of non-economic factors in modernization development of the region; in recent years this issue has attracted increasing attention of scientists. Nowadays the importance of these factors has become generally accepted in economic science; these factors are studied by sociology. Trust can also be considered as a non-economic factor. It appears as one of the “expensive” non-economic assets. Many economic processes, such as investment banking, marketing, etc., are based on it. Trust can be viewed as a comprehensive response to risk. It creates the environment in which various economic subjects interact. The article assesses the level of trust in the region on the basis of the analysis of public opinion of theVologda Oblast residents. The author comes to the conclusion about the necessity to raise the level of trust in the region. It requires implementation of certain social policy. For this purpose a programme of measures can be developed based on socio-economic diagnostics of the region.
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Twenty years of children's health monitoring: organization, results, conclusions
Статья научная
Deep understanding of human potential reproduction, presenting it as a continuous cycle and reflecting the continuity of generations, is significant for the formation of health and development of children. Today’s children will determine the future of Russian society. It is they who in 10-15 years will be a major part of the labor and creative population, a demographic base of the country. The research into children’s problems through the prism of socio-economic development helps identify targets of the state many-sided policy. The article presents results of the long-term medical sociological monitoring on the formation of child health carried out by the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS with the support of the Vologda Oblast Healthcare Department since 1995. The special monitoring study of health dynamics in real time is unique not only for the Vologda Oblast, but for Russia as well. It reveals the transformation of a personality and the dependence of these changes on direct and indirect factors...
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Статья научная
Recently, attention to assessing the effectiveness of measures aimed at promoting birth rate has been increasing. Among these measures, federal maternal (family) capital is, doubtless, the most significant one; thus, it is necessary to develop methodological approaches so as to assess the impact of specific demographic policy measures, in particular maternity capital, on birth rate dynamics. The aim of the study is to design a methodology for evaluating and measuring the effectiveness of federal maternity capital based on official statistics. The article presents two approaches to the methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of federal maternal (family) capital: the first is based on current accounting data, the second is based on census and micro-census data. Within the framework of the first approach, we consider it necessary to apply age-related birth rates for second births in real generations of women, that is, attributed to generations rather than calendar years. The second approach is based on the information about reproductive intentions. In accordance with this information, data on the average expected number of children, according to the 2015 micro-census, and the average number of children born according to the results of the 2020 census are compared. The proposed methodology helps to obtain estimates of the effectiveness of demographic policy measures, taking into account their target orientation (for example, an increase in the birth rate of a certain order or in women of certain age groups). The approbation of the proposed approaches on the example of assessing the effectiveness of maternity capital indicates the expediency of their application. Scientific novelty of our research consists in the convergence of the two approaches in order to measure the effectiveness of federal maternity capital, and in the methodology for using more detailed birth rate indicators in assessing demographic policy measures. The approbation of the approaches has not only analytical capabilities, allowing us to study birth rate in real generations of women according to the order of births and characterize reproductive attitudes; it also substantiates the conclusions about the effectiveness of federal maternity capital.
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Typing the region's economy for staffing requirements forecasting
Статья научная
The article considers a method that defines type zones in the region's economy in accordance with the intensity of modernization and innovation diffusion processes. The author substantiates the application of unified approaches to forecasting the professional qualification components of staffing requirements in the type zones in accordance with the nature of structural changes. The article presents the results of typing the economy of Krasnoyarsk Krai and its municipalities. It indicates that the use of this approach enhances the accuracy and relevance of the results of the long-term forecast of personnel demand of the regional economy.
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Статья научная
In the modern conditions the socio-economic paradigm is changing, on the one hand, due to the transition to knowledge economy and, on the other hand, due to the need to develop innovation that determine competitiveness and the development level of national economies in the world. It is obvious that the progressive upgrade and the improvement of production processes (change in technological modes) can not be implemented without the increase in the level of human capital in the society and the enhancement of potential and qualification of the workforce. These changes largely depend on the education system. In almost all world countries there is an active process of modernization and change in the system of training. New forms and approaches appear, for example lifelong education (concept “Lifelong education”), informal forms of learning, self-education, etc. Without the development of these approaches it is not possible to become a competitive state in changing social, political and economic environment...
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Typology of employees as a tool of labour behaviour management
Статья научная
The article describes the features of labour behaviour of the region's population on the basis of empirical research conducted by ISEDT RAS in the Vologda Oblast in 2012. The article analyzes the main socio-demographic and socio-economic characteristics of different types of labour behaviour. In addition, it proposes a differentiated system of measures aimed at labour efficiency enhancement.
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Typology of regions by level and dynamics of the quality of life
Статья научная
The paper considers the methodology and algorithm for the construction of typologies of regions in a two-dimensional space “level of development - dynamics of development” taking into account the quality of life, which is one of the most relevant competitiveness factors at the present stage of Russia's development. The authors analyze the concept of “quality of life” and propose their own variant of the concept, on the basis of which they make a list of indicators for measuring and assessing the “quality of life” factor. In the implementation of the algorithm it is proposed to transform specific indicators, which assess the level and dynamics of the quality of life, into nonmetric numerical scores, normalized to the weighted average values of indicators for the Russian regions. The method of transformation of indicators into scores was tested on the example of the Northwestern Federal District regions, and the typologies in a two-dimensional space “level - dynamics” of the quality of life were made for 80 regions of Russia; the level of the quality of life was assessed according to official statistics for 2013, and the dynamics of the quality of life was assessed with the use of official statistics for 2011-2013...
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Universities in transition: the 6I model for strategic governance and management
Статья научная
The 6i Model (Caro-Gonzalez, 2019) offers an archetype for research management to devise and implement integrative institutional strategies by combining six dimensions that start with ‘i’: internationalisation, interdisciplinarity, intersectorality, impact, innovation and inclusion. This innovative model focuses on the expanding critical role of universities as social innovators and proposes ways to shape performance through principles of collaboration (international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral) and values-based rationales for action (impact, innovation, and inclusion). When adopted strategically, these dimensions can reconfigure universities’ multi-level fields of action, transforming their often slow and disconnected institutional changing processes. By analysing the case of the University of Deusto, Spain, and using a qualitative approach, this paper aims to critically examine whether this comprehensive model can be a powerful improvement methodology for the strategic governance and management system of university research. The research unveils the way the model performs in practice and unfolds its key performance features and critical success factors while addressing the fundamental challenges and barriers faced by universities nowadays. The research carried out suggests that a holistic view of research management can better inform research policy, support decision-making, and generate more focused and integrative implementation of the research strategy. Based on this research strategy framework at a specific university, further implementations and assessments of the model in other institutions and settings will contribute to further explore the potential of the 6i model as a comprehensive strategic design with which universities can steer their priorities, activities and role within local, regional and global ecosystems
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University partnership system as a factor in the development of youth entrepreneurship
Статья научная
Economic development dynamics present a number of challenges to the system of higher education. Among these tasks, an important one is to train specialists who would meet the needs of the labor market. One of the components of this market is entrepreneurship, which, according to some scientists, can become a real driver of the national economic system and serve as the basis for increasing the welfare of citizens. The desire to engage in entrepreneurial activity should be conscious, and the activity itself should be prepared in advance. Education system in cooperation with business, non-governmental organizations and other partners is able to form such a desire and provide the necessary basic knowledge for the implementation of the plans of young entrepreneurs. Constructive building of partnership relations defines strategic development prospects for many educational institutions and within the “youth-entrepreneurial” context as well. The goal of our research is to determine the emotional readiness of university students to acquire entrepreneurial skills with participation of university partners...
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Unusual clarity. Russia is no longer the West
Статья научная
Of the struggle for a multipolar world and for the independence of all national states fighting to preserve and strengthen their national sovereignty against the hegemony of the United States and its satellites. At the same time, making things clear regarding Russia’s foreign policy guidelines allows the President to further improve domestic policy, bring it in line with the status of Russia as a country-civilization in terms of strengthening the foundations of public administration, achieving full national sovereignty and social justice. The article analyzes the adoption of a new Foreign Policy Concept as the President’s next step in the implementation of the general course of national development that he has been in charge of for the past 23 years. We present the relevant expert assessments and the dynamics of public opinion regarding the activities of the head of state. We also look into objective historical prerequisites that determined the specifics of a new Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, as well as some key tasks that are coming to the fore in domestic policy after the adoption of the Concept. of the struggle for a multipolar world and for the independence of all national states fighting to preserve and strengthen their national sovereignty against the hegemony of the United States and its satellites. At the same time, making things clear regarding Russia’s foreign policy guidelines allows the President to further improve domestic policy, bring it in line with the status of Russia as a country-civilization in terms of strengthening the foundations of public administration, achieving full national sovereignty and social justice. The article analyzes the adoption of a new Foreign Policy Concept as the President’s next step in the implementation of the general course of national development that he has been in charge of for the past 23 years. We present the relevant expert assessments and the dynamics of public opinion regarding the activities of the head of state. We also look into objective historical prerequisites that determined the specifics of a new Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, as well as some key tasks that are coming to the fore in domestic policy after the adoption of the Concept.
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