Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1817
The importance of research on reproductive intentions for fertility forecasting
Статья научная
In the context of depopulation and demographic aging, the importance of forecasting population dynamics is increasing. Due to the high behavioral determinism of fertility, special attention should be paid to reproductive intentions, since they play an essential role in shaping birth rate, which in turn determines population reproduction by more than 90%. Research on reproductive behavior is carried out at both the federal and regional levels, which indicates that the array of data on reproductive intentions and their implementation has been accumulated. The aim of the work is to assess the possibility of using data on reproductive intentions in forecasting fertility. Based on the data from a reproductive plans survey carried out by Rosstat, we assess the prospects for using the empirical indicator "expected number of children", modifying it to "expected number of more children" if the parents already have children, in comparison with the number of children born during the period in question in real generations of women born in 1970–1994. The findings of the research indicate a fairly high stability of the gap between the expected and actual number of children, which suggests the possibility of using information about reproductive intentions in order to predict fertility. We reveal that for the generations who completed fertility the mentioned difference was 0.19, for women of the last fifteen (out of 35) years of fertility – 0.3. For women under 35, the gap is more significant – 0.72. We substantiate the possibility of using data on reproductive intentions to predict births of various order, which is especially important when planning the total fertility rate and the proportion of large families. The results obtained expand methodological foundations for forecasting fertility, which is of practical importance for improving the effectiveness of family and demographic policy in Russia.
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Статья научная
The paper presents an analysis of disability indicators in European countries, where the increase in the number of persons with disabilities is largely determined by the high primary disability in the elderly. The goal of our research is to identify distinctive characteristics of disability in groups of European countries that have different levels of economic development and conduct different policies in the field of healthcare. To achieve this goal, we solve the following research tasks: we arrange European countries into groups; we make a comparative evaluation of disability rate in the population in selected groups; we analyze of the quality and accessibility of healthcare as a factor that influences disability indicators; we propose recommendations aimed to reduce the disability rate in Russia’s population. We group European countries into six clusters according to disability indicators, the proportion of elderly persons in the population and healthy life expectancy at age 60. The greatest similarity of these parameters is observed in the countries that have similarities in geographical position and historical experience of participation in political associations. The Russian situation is characterized by worse values of healthy life expectancy and a relatively low proportion of elderly population in comparison with the situation in most other European countries. The discussion part of our paper considers the quality and availability of healthcare. In Russia, a significant part of older citizens who have the greatest risk of developing disabling pathologies cannot afford to receive treatment in private medical organizations. The effectiveness of rehabilitation measures for people with disabilities remains low. In conclusion, we summarize the arguments in favor of the use of disability indicators in assessing the effectiveness of countries’ health policies. We propose directions of work to reduce disability in Russia. The results of the study can be useful for social management workers and for scientists whose research interests affect the problems associated with disability of the population.
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The inflation and unemployment processes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic
Статья научная
The article considers the features of the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in related developing economies during the economic crisis and after it. Latin American countries (2020- 2022) are the object of the study. The aim of the work is to empirically verify the presence and closeness ofsignificantrelationships betweenthe processesofinflationand unemployment, includingthe possibility of taking into account other macroeconomic variables affecting the processes of inflation and unemployment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The relevance of the study is determined by the possibility of monitoring the development of the economic crisis. The analysis of linear regressions on pseudo-panel data was carried out. The general model took into account the size and features of the economy, economic policy, as well as some social effects (the dynamics of unemployment and inflation, specific mortality due to coronavirus, the size of the labor resources for the economy). The models constructed help to study the general crisis dynamics and show the rate of recovery for the trends. The novelty of the results includes an assessment of the effectiveness of management tools in the context of strong external shocks. It is empirically confirmed that there was no direct relationship between the processes of inflation and unemployment in Latin American countries during the period under consideration. A detailed analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors and factors reflecting the behavior of state institutions may be useful for considering the risks of anti-crisis measures. Inflation is the most controllable process that can be influenced by tools. Unemployment, as a subject of regulation, is a more complex process involving various state institutions; at that, the success of decisions depends mainly on taking into account the country’s export specialization, the pace and severity of anti-crisis measures.
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Статья научная
The instability of market economy development causes continuous changes in the activity of higher educational establishments. The article deals with the processes, taking place in the system of higher professional education in the Russian Federation in recent decades. On the basis of the analysis of statistical data and normative acts of the Government and Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, the key global and national trends in higher education are identified: increasing demand for higher education, resulted in its considerable offer (the growth of quantitative indicators is not always accompanied by improvement of higher education quality); reduction in the total number of students due to the demographic situation worsening; transition to a multi-level system of higher education under the Bologna process; change in specialties patterns and directions of training specialists with higher professional education due to the economy structural reforms and labor market needs; aggravation of competition. The tendencies lead to the emergence of demographic, political and economic risks. To reduce negative impact of the external risks to the universities' activity it is necessary to develop corresponding state educational policy in the sphere of higher education and risk management in universities.
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The influence of ferrous metallurgy corporations’ interests on the regional development
Статья научная
In the Russian scientific literature there are many papers published in which special attention is paid to the discrepancy between the economic interests of the metallurgical companies owners and enterprises controlled by them, and the tasks of national development and addressing the problems of social and economic growth in the regions and cities where the facilities of ferrous metallurgy industry operate. However, the global crisis that broke out in the second half of 2008 has brought the new plots in this respect. In this article, the crisis period is seen as the time of the most vivid manifestation of the business owners’ interests in the case of metallurgical holding “Severstal”. Particular attention is paid to the influence of these interests on the socio-economic development of the Vologda oblast - a region where the powers of the parent company of the holding OJSC “Cherepovets metallurgical plant” OJSC “Severstal”, one of the leaders of the domestic ferrous industry are located...
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The influence of the agglomeration effect on the demographic policy of territories
Статья научная
In the context of increasing spatial polarization and uneven urbanization, the central question becomes the empirical assessment of the agglomeration effect's influence on the demographic dynamics of peripheral settlements. This study is devoted to a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the distance of peripheral settlements from the core of an urban agglomeration and changes in their population during the 2010–2021 intercensal period. The theoretical and methodological basis is formed by the concepts of center-periphery systems and spatial polarization. The research covers 40 urban agglomerations in Russia and is based on studying the demographic dynamics of about 25,000 settlements. The methodology included: determining the geodesic distances from each peripheral settlement to the corresponding core; calculating four metrics of demographic dynamics: absolute, relative, logarithmic growth, and average annual growth rate; estimating paired Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients between distance and demographic indicators. The empirical data is based on the results of the 2010 and 2020 All-Russian Population Censuses. Overall, for the entire set of peripheral settlements, a weak but stable negative monotonic dependence was recorded. Based on the analysis results, agglomerations were divided into three groups: those with a strong negative gradient (18 agglomerations, predominantly in Siberia and the Urals), a moderate gradient (15 agglomerations, including the largest ones – Moscow and Saint Petersburg), and no significant gradient (7 agglomerations). No positive correlations were found in any case. The practical significance of the results lies in substantiating the priorities of demographic policy: the need for targeted support of remote zones, the development of sub-centers, and the consideration of transport accessibility.
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Статья научная
The article represents the new results of the ongoing researches “The influence of the metallurgical corporation owners’ interests over the national and regional development”, which are carried out in the ISEDT RAS under the direction of Doctor of Economics, Professor V.A. Ilyin. The first article, which dealt with that problem, represented the analysis of the financial and economical activity of the largest ferrous metallurgy corporations in Russia (OJSC “Severstal”, Novolipetsk Steel, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works) with all their segments on the basis of the reports prepared by the international standards. However, those reports didn’t contain sufficient information about the parent enterprises of the corporations. This article analyzes the financial and economic activity of OJSC “Cherepovets Iron and Steel Complex “Severstal”. The analysis is performed according to the annual account submitted in accordance with Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) and published on the official website of the company
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The infrastructure support for the development of the youth sector in the regional labor market
Статья научная
The youth is a necessary component in the labor market able not only to occupy one of its sectors, but also successfully adapt and further expand its share. The article presents the analysis of the youth segment of the labor market functioning and development in the regional breakdown (case study of the Tyumen Oblast), which has revealed its inherent trends: first, the demographic consequences of the decline in the number of young people; second, the asymmetry in the received information; third, institutional imbalances characterized by uneven supply and demand; and fourth, hidden unemployment. These problems are significant barriers limiting the development of the youth sector of the labor market. The hypothesis is the assumption that the development of the youth sector of the labor market and successful inclusion of the youth in the system of social and labor relations can be facilitated by the developed system of infrastructure support that can create favorable conditions for professional fulfilment of young people...
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Статья научная
Breaking out of a demographic trap is a priority of national policy in Russia. To achieve this goal, the national project “Demography” was adopted. The purpose of our study is to review current trends in European family policy in the case of Germany and to identify opportunities for applying foreign experience in improving the provision of institutional support to family policy in the Russian Federation. In our work, we use methods of institutional and statistical analysis. Unlike the studies of other authors, our own assessment of the effectiveness and sufficiency of expensive measures being developed in Russia is based on an institutional analysis that we conduct so as to reveal trends in European family policy on the example of Germany, which is characterized by an institutional logic of family policy similar to Russia. Family policy in Germany is based on increasing public spending on the creation of a developed system of social infrastructure. Both countries focus on increasing the birth rate and the development of social infrastructure that allows women not to abandon their career; but it is assumed that for Russia, the relevant implications will be more significant. As a result of accelerated construction of kindergartens in major agglomerations of Germany, an increase in the birth rate is demonstrated. However, this effect is mostly caused by the migration wave of 2015, while immigrants are insensitive to the measures being implemented. In addition, this leads to an outflow of population from other regions. The significance of the article lies in the fact that the consideration of the contradictions between various courses of family policy in Germany over the past 20 years has revealed the possibilities of using foreign experience in improving the institutional support of family policy in Russia. Based on the analysis we carried out, and taking into consideration the experience of Germany, we propose recommendations in the field of socioeconomic policy that can specify the parameters of the national project “Demography” in terms of taking into account regional demographic situation.
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The issues of asymmetry of corporate and public interests in the food market
Статья научная
The article analyzes the present-day condition of Russia’s food market from the viewpoint of coordination of interests of population and corporate interests of producers. The author points out that the provisions of the existing legal documents regulating the quality and safety of foodstuffs facilitate the growth of asymmetry in these interests. The article considers the manifestation of imbalance and the consequences of consumption of foodstuffs, produced with the use of new technology and receipts. It proposes the ways to smooth the asymmetry of interests by enhancing the role of experts in drafting the state decisions on the development the national food market from the standpoint of complying with the principles of food products safety.
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The issues of tax burden distribution in Russia's economy
Статья научная
Tax burden has a direct influence on socio-economic processes and is one of the main criteria for evaluating the current tax system. But there still exist certain simplified views on the level of tax burden, which is identified with the actual transfer of payments to the budget. The article highlights the results of a research into the tax burden of Russia’s economy. The main goal was to identify the trends in the distribution of tax burden and its actual level. The main conclusion of the study consists in the following: the ongoing tax reforms have not led to the establishment of an efficient fiscal mechanism, which will facilitate the implementation of taxation equality principle and take into consideration the opportunities of tax-payers to pay compulsory payments and develop the production. Meanwhile, there is the potential for tax maneuver with regard to a number of industries.
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The link between unemployment and industrial production: the Fourier approach with structural breaks
Статья научная
The purpose of this study was to investigate the long-term relationship between unemployment and industrial production during structural breaks in the United States. We used monthly data from the Industrial Production Index and the unemployment rate between January 1948 and October 2018 to analyze this relationship. We found the stationarity of the time series used using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test, which enabled a stationarity analysis, including with the existence of structural breaks. As a result of the stationarity analysis, we did not find any stationarity in either series. We then used a Fourier Shin cointegration analysis to investigate the long-term relationship between the industrial production index and the unemployment rate. This test demonstrates its difference from other cointegration tests considering the time and shape of these breaks in the presence of structural breaks. According to the cointegration analysis results, we found a long-term relationship between the U.S. unemployment rate and the industrial production index variables. These results indicate that sudden structural changes in the industrial production index have an effect on the U.S. unemployment rate in the long term. We then used the Least Squares with Breaks Bai-Perron break type method to determine the structural break periods and the coefficients of these periods. We found the years 1958, 1974, 1990, and 2007 to be when the structural changes occurred.
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The logic of development of civil society studies at VolRC RAS
Статья научная
The article presents the formation and development of a research field dedicated to the study of civil society at Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (VolRC RAS; previously known as VSCC CEMI RAS, ISEDT RAS). The Center's research tradition, originating in 1993 with the launch of a public opinion monitoring, has allowed for the creation of a unique long-term empirical database. Building upon this foundation in the 2010s, under the leadership of Doctor of Sciences (Economics), RAS Corresponding Member, Professor V.A. Ilyin, a systematic study of civil society from a regional perspective was initiated. The formation of this research field is revealed through three key research vectors. First, the analysis of civil society through the lens of social capital. The research team developed and tested an original indicator model for its quantitative measurement, enabling the study of the dynamics, structure, and characteristics of the bearers of this resource. The social capital of a regional community is considered a condition for civil society development. Second, monitoring and assessment of one of the key institutions of civil society – the non-profit sector – is conducted, and its role in the socio-economic development of the region is investigated. Methodologies for assessing its contribution to the gross regional product and balanced regional development have been developed; models of economic behavior of organizations and key barriers to their functioning have been identified. Third, the phenomenon of civic participation is conceptualized, external and internal barriers to its realization are identified, and mechanisms for overcoming them are proposed, including in the context of digitalization. Overall, the research approach of VolRC RAS staff to the study of civil society can be characterized as an applied, empirically rich, and regionally-oriented school. The principal value of the team's scholarly work lies in translating abstract philosophical and political science concepts into the language of concrete social indicators and practices applicable to Russian realities, especially at the regional level. The accumulated body of data and the developed methodological tools for assessing elements of civil society create a basis for evidence-based analysis and the formulation of practical recommendations for public authorities.
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The logic of withstanding between civilizational poles
Статья научная
The article proposes a conceptual scheme of historical development as a sequence of breaking points that are associated with the change of sense, ideological structure and determine the dominant attitudes of the subjects of historical activity. The time intervals between successive breaking points are epochs of relative stability of the system of ideological attitudes. The modern epoch began with a historical breaking point that came at the end of the 19th - early 20th century, replacing the epoch of classical capitalism of the 15 th - 19th century. The dominant sense structure of the modern epoch is determined by the civilizational confrontation between Western countries and a group of leading non-Western countries. In the 20th century, the main ideological contradiction of this multidimensional confrontation was the struggle of socialism and capitalism. However, at the beginning of the 21st century, the confrontation between Western and non-Western countries transformed into a struggle between supporters of a unipolar world and supporters of a multipolar world. From time to time, the civilizational confrontation experiences periods of extreme aggravation (for example, the First and Second world wars), which is then followed by “detente”. The most important factor in historical dynamics is the processes that occur in the Western power elite and that are associated with the need to maintain the dominant ideology of superiority in this part of the world. The article describes the features of economic and political processes that can lead to the emergence and acceleration of exacerbations in international relations. They include the tendency of the West losing its leadership and an uncompromising struggle with contenders for new leadership; large-scale and, in many ways, successful attempts to manipulate public consciousness through the media and the education system; emergence of powers behind the throne in Western countries; revival of neo-Nazi organizations.
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The methodical basis of estimation of flax cluster elements’ competitiveness
Статья научная
The article examines the problems of formation and development of flax cluster in Vologda region by inter-branch and inter-territorial cooperating. The effectiveness of this cluster is primarily determined by the level of competitiveness of its products, it depends on the rate of development of advanced technologies of agricultural production, industrial primary processing of raw flax and textile industry. Basing on the data available in the system of state statistics and manufacturing accounting, the author suggests the technique to reveal the competitiveness of major products made of flax and the competitiveness of flax cluster as a whole. The algorithm of this technique for vertically-oriented formations in regional flax complex has been worked out.
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The nature of large-scale financial and economic crises and latent world management
Статья научная
The material presents in abbreviated form the contents of the report, made on the basis of collective research at the Center for Problem Analysis and Public Management Projecting and submitted at the standing Research Seminar in the Center (head - Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, General Director of the Center S.S. Sulakshin)
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