Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1763
Theoretical aspects of agent-based modeling in the development of the forest complex
Статья научная
One of the ways to ensure sustainable economic growth in modern Russia is to enhance the efficiency of utilization of forest resources. The forest complex is a comprehensive open system with close relationships between different aspects such as ecological, social, economic, cultural, educational, and public administration. It is difficult to find a comprehensive solution to the issues of development of the forest complex if there is no evidence-based system for management decision-making. One of the promising areas of scientific research in this direction could be the application of agent-based models simulating the processes of using, protecting, and reproducing forests, forest products and forest management. The aim of the paper is to study scientific approaches to the construction of agent-based models applied to the forest sector in order to define common approaches to the formation of a set of agents and create an environment for their functioning. We provide an overview of the experience of simulation modeling of individual processes in the forest complex with the use of the agent-based approach...
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Статья научная
This article deals with the theoretical aspects of temporal databases. There is one of the definitions of temporal databases in the first part of the article which reflects the essence of temporal databases exactly. The existing approaches to temporal databases are also described in the article as well as three approaches to create such databases are highlighted. The article proposes a way to implement temporal extension for existing relational databases. Therefore new data types and new operations with them are proposed. All descriptions are given through the abstract data types. The final part of the article deals with the application of temporal database to store the social and economic information and creating of DB to keep the results of monitoring studies.
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Статья научная
The article presents the author's point of view on the formation of the mixed (convergent, double-track) model of socio-economic and community development in the Russian Federation - as inherent in the federal state with multinational population, open space, and diversified economic orders determined by historical and national-cultural traditions. The author's stance is based on the wildly discussed and debated thesis about the necessity of organic combination of primary state regulation of macroeconomic processes with predominant market self-regulation of microeconomic processes. The framework of the mixed model of socio-economic and community development presupposes more active and effective use of the “point” state regulation in the creation of favorable and equal conditions for the systematic development of all forms (private, with public participation) of business and the expansion of the “corridor of opportunities” for the spatial development of all regions and the improvement of quality and standard of living of the Russian population (regardless of place of residence and position). The article substantiates theoretical and methodological possibility of successful implementation of the mixed model in the Russian Federation.
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Theory and methodology of appraisal of enterprise economic potential
Статья научная
The functioning of an enterprise is based on building and use of its economic potential. The company's performance depends on the quality of these processes. Modern conditions of highly dynamic operating environment put demands on the search and application of new approaches to the building and use of economic potential of enterprises which provide opportunities for identifying and using internal economic growth reserves. An important economic parameter of the enterprise operation is the appraisal of economic potential formation and use effectiveness. Lack of economic control mechanisms scientifically proved for market management conditions and appraisal of the enterprises' state in terms of efficiency of economic resources formation and use diminish investment activity and the competitiveness of economic entities. This necessitates the search for new methods and models for appraising economic potential, which defines economic independence as a system of management impacts on the economic state and development of an enterprise...
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Thorny paths of modern Russian higher professional education
Статья научная
The article analyzes problem situations on the way to acquiring professions that require higher professional education. The main attention is paid to the fact that in society there is a real gap between personal (individual) goals in obtaining highly qualified professions and the socio-economic, socio-political and socio-cultural needs of society. In this regard, the reference points of acquiring and passing professional socialization are analyzed, which, in the author's opinion, consists of a consistent solution (algorithm) of interconnected, consistently implemented tasks – professional education, professional orientation, professional selection and professional adaptation. The author examines how these tasks are solved from the standpoint of: a) official state educational policy; b) actions and activities of schools and universities; c) behavior of schoolchildren and students; and d) their regional characteristics. Moreover, attention is paid not so much to the educational, methodological and organizational problems of mastering professions, as to the social aspects of the process of training and obtaining higher education
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Threats to the region's economic security and the ways to overcome them
Статья научная
The paper summarizes the approaches to the definition of the category “economic security of the region”, gives its author's interpretation. The main threats to economic security are defined, the characteristic of their manifestation is presented. An analysis of major trends of socio-economic development of the Vologda oblast for the period from 2000 to 2009 is carried out, the most obvious threats to its economic security are revealed. The problems of regional economic policy the solution of which is aimed at ensuring economic security in the region are formulated.
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Three suggestions for the improvement of demographic and family policy
Статья научная
The article states the reasons for the low level of birth rate in Russia. It shows that the reduction in the intensity of births is caused by changes in the demographic behavior resulting from the sexual revolution, the significant differentiation of the population by income levels - poverty and low welfare of families with children, the decline in reproductive health and reproductive potential. Meanwhile, mortality rate in Russia is comparable with that in the developing countries; the difference between life expectancy in women and men is 12 years, but women suffer from various diseases more often, and this fact significantly increases the risk of disability by the end of employment. It is therefore proposed to improve the practice of maternity/family capital, to introduce a system of wholesome nutrition for pregnant women, preserve the retirement age for women.
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Tools for state regulation of the region's agriculture
Статья научная
The article analyzes the issues of providing state support to agricultural enterprises in the Vologda Oblast. It classifies its municipal districts according to the production potential of agriculture. On this basis, the article proposes the ways of reducing the differentiation of the districts according to the level of their capacity development by using the tools of budget support, lending, leasing, and insurance. Furthermore, the article provides calculations of their efficiency.
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Topical issues of labour potential development in the Republic of Komi
Статья научная
Labour potential of the region is characterized by the size and health of the population, a progressive age distribution and economic activity ratio, an employment rate, the structure of labour resources and their professional competence, as well as the changes in these characteristics and the factors that cause them. The article deals with the trend in changing the quantitative characteristics of labour potential in the Republic of Komi for the period after the 1989 census. The current state of labour potential in the republic and its utilization level are estimated in the article.
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Topical issues of the improvement of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local government
Статья научная
The intension of “intergovernmental dealings” is expounded in the article. It deals with the main problems of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local self-government, which is a fundamental element of the budget system in the Russian Federation. It is difficult to transform the budget sphere of the country without strengthening of it. It is shown that the real local self-government in Russia is determined by the provision of municipalities with their own financial assets. The authors have analyzed the actual state of the financial relationship between the bodies of state power and local self-government. They have outlined a set of measures aimed at the improvement of intergovernmental dealings at the municipal level.
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Статья научная
The sustainable development of tourism in Russia requires expanding the supply and increasing tourism infrastructure facilities in the country’s regions. Many constituent entities of the Russian Federation have significant but unrealized tourism potential. The Vologda Region is among them, where tourism is a promising economic specialization. The multiplier effects generated by the tourism industry require appropriate measurement for national and regional economies. In this regard, assessing the economic effects of tourism development in the region and substantiating its role as a factor in regional economic growth become relevant. This necessitated the development of methodological tools for identifying promising projects, calculating their effects on the regional economy, and formulating practical recommendations based on the assessment. The methodological basis of the research was the input-output balance toolkit, including the development of authorial input-output tables. The information base consisted of official data from Rosstat and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), relevant analytical and expert materials, as well as intermediate tables of resources and uses of the Russian economy. The theoretical foundation included scientific works by domestic and foreign authors on tourism infrastructure development, assessment methodology, scenario modeling, and forecasting of economic processes. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the development of a methodological approach that integrates input-output analysis and scenario modeling, adapted to the modern conditions of Russian statistics, for assessing the multiplier effects of tourism on the regional economy. Using multipliers, the multiplicative effects of realizing the resource potential of the tourism industry were assessed, and ways to unlock this potential are proposed.
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Tourism development in the rural suburban area
Статья научная
The article presents the results of the assessments of the tourism potential in Vologda Municipal District: the assessment of the tourism sector; its influence on the social-economic development of the municipality; the ways to make the usage of the tourism potential more effective.
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Trade and investment interactions in the Asia-Pacific Region: Effects of integration agreements
Статья научная
The aim of the work is to provide a long-term assessment of the impact of integration agreements on trade and investment interactions between Asia-Pacific countries in 1992–2023. It is determined that the Asia-Pacific region accounts for the largest share of trade and investment interactions worldwide, with intraregional trade in goods and direct capital flows being the main source. The study shows that, in terms of reducing trade and economic barriers between countries, integration agreements can be classified into shallow and deep agreements, with the Asia-Pacific region taking the lead in their creation. Based on a database compiled from various sources on trade and capital flows between Asia-Pacific countries, and using gravity modeling, the long-term cumulative effects of shallow and deep integration agreements on trade and the inflow of accumulated foreign direct investment (FDI) are estimated. The general stimulating effect of integration agreements on trade among Asia-Pacific countries was identified as increasing trade by an average of 21.9%, while their influence on FDI inflow was found to be invariant. We found that shallow integration agreements between Asia-Pacific countries reduced FDI inflows by 47.5% and promoted trade growth by 46.0%; as for deep integration agreements, they increased trade volumes between Asia-Pacific countries by 15.5% and FDI inflows by 23.6%. It was shown that, within the Asia-Pacific region, shallow and deep integration agreements conflicted with each other in terms of attracting FDI. Due to the suppression of FDI inflows by trade in goods and the longer duration of shallow agreements, their long-term cumulative trade effect was greater than that of deep agreements. Deep integration agreements encouraged both trade and direct capital flows between Asia-Pacific countries, pointing to the creation of conditions for complementarity between trade and FDI within more advanced formats of economic convergence aimed at reducing production cooperation costs. Unlike trade, FDI exchange in the Asia-Pacific region proved to be more sensitive to existing barriers to economic interaction and less flexible toward recipient countries of such investments
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Trade effects in the commodity markets of the Asia-Pacific region
Статья научная
The aim of the research is to assess long-term effects of trade integration in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) at the level of commodity markets - industrial and primary goods. Over the previous three decades, trade within the APR has significantly increased, thanks to the lowering of trade and economic barriers as a result of trade agreements and the WTO accession by almost all countries in the subglobal region. We show that trade between the Asia-Pacific countries greatly exceed their trade with other countries of the world, due to the increase in the exchange of goods, both primary and industrial goods including in the production chains of transnational corporations. Estimates derived from the gravity model indicate that in the long term the overall positive effect of trade integration in the APR is manifested through the complementarity of regionalization and globalization processes, with the dominance of the latter. The regionalization process stimulates an increase in most of the aggregate trade in industrial goods, while trade of primary goods is generated exclusively by globalization, which explains the motivation of a number of countries specializing in exports, including Russia, in their reluctance to expand trade agreements with other APR countries. The article points out that along with the process of regionalization, globalization in the Asia-Pacific region contributes to the expansion of trade in industrial goods, with the production chains of transnational corporations successfully functioning within the framework of trade agreements. The assessments also point to signs of the exhaustion of globalization as a source of increasing trade in industrial goods in the APR, which may be related to the fragmentation of the subglobal region as manifested in creating trade megaformats in recent years. We assume that under the current instability of foreign policy processes in the APR, the introduction of various kinds of restrictions can lead to the transformation of trade and economic relations in the sub-global region, manifesting itself in the redistribution of the accumulated benefits of integration for the Asia-Pacific countries.
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Статья научная
The article uses the synthesis of the institutional theory tools and synergetics for analyzing the need to optimize the existing system of gender power institutions in the modern Russian economy. It is known that the performance effectiveness of the projected institutions is determined by the fact that economic agents are in need of such changes. In this regard, the article is focused on a study of the processes of transformation of the traditional type of gender power disposition in Russian families. It has been determined that they are characterized by a more equal distribution of functions in the organization of household. Therefore, currently, along with the traditional type of gender power, we define two more types: the egalitarian type, when the interests of both spouses are considered and there is symmetry in the distribution of household responsibilities, and the transitional type (interim version of gender interactions between spouses). The family is considered as a closed and an open system for determining the efficiency of reproduction of these gender power types in the modern economy...
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