Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1659
Maternal age at first birth: dynamics, regional differences, determination
Статья научная
The article presents the research results of the age model at first birth in Russia for the period of 1960-2019 which is available for calculations. The authors demonstrate the compatibility of data on first births from different sources, and calculate the indicator of “mean maternal age at first birth” using the methods of longitudinal and transverse demographic analysis (for real and conditional generations). The researchers have revealed that mother’s age at first birth in the period from the 1960s to 1994 was decreasing from 24.4 to 22.5 years, then it was growing and in 2019 it made up 25.9 years. The age at first birth in “young” real generations is lower than in conventional ones, in 2018-2019, it made up 25.9 years, but in none of real generations of women born in 2000 and older the total count value of this indicator reaches this level. This is evidence of timing shifts in the second half of the 1990s - early 2000s, after which, probably, the delayed births were realized, which caused an increase in the birth rate. The average maternal age at first birth has been calculated for all regions of Russia, showing variability from 23 to 28 years, in most of them the figure made up 25-26 years. The minimum values of the indicator are shown in the republics of Tyva (23.4 years), Dagestan (23.5), Chechnya (23.7), and Zabaykalsky Krai (23.9); the maximum values are revealed in Saint Petersburg (28.0) and Moscow (27.7). The main determinants of motherhood age are the level of education and marital behavior, which indicates the importance of socio-economic independence in the process of reproductive behavior formation. The novelty of the study lies in the use of the author’s approach taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of longitudinal and transverse demographic analysis, which provides reliable data on mother’s age at first birth. From a practical point of view, assessing motherhood age makes it possible to justify the importance of improving the effectiveness of youth and demographic policies.
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Mathematical simulation modeling of the income taxation system with the use of Tukey's q-test
Статья научная
The study deals with the development of a mathematical simulation models for the income taxation system. The paper uses general scientific research methods (analysis, synthesis), mathematical simulation modeling techniques and substantiation of statistical hypotheses. This comprehensive approach is carried out in two stages; this fact distinguished our present study from previously published works on the subject. Flat personal income tax rate is assumed as a basic condition of the system. An effective system of income taxation should take into account two mandatory conditions. The first condition relates to the budget and consists in the non-reduction of tax revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation. The second - social - condition is to eliminate excessive social inequality in the first five decile groups of citizens by income. In order to fulfill the first condition, we create a mathematical simulation model, which includes non-taxable minimum and tax deductions...
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Matters of state regulation of distribution processes and of income use in modern Russia
Статья научная
The article proves that in modern Russia the system of non-optimal and unfair income distribution between the state and managing subject and between the social groups of the population has developed. The author thinks that in order to provide optimal and fair distribution and use of income it’s necessary to refuse from discredited liberal-monetarist policy and to turn to the model of market economy development, regulated by the state.
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Maturity of teenagers' occupational preferences as a factor in their socialization
Статья научная
One of the most acute problems in employment of both the country in general and the region in particular is the structural imbalance caused by the mismatch of professional skills of graduates of educational institutions with labor market requirements. The reason for this process is often an inefficiently structured vocational guidance and lack of close interaction between potential employers and the educational system. The authors analyze the degree of maturity of teenagers' occupational preferences and its impact on timely acceptance of social roles and their skillful performance in accordance with the requirements of the modern innovation-oriented society. The informational base of the study includes data of the 2015 comprehensive survey of children in their mid and late teens enrolled in the Research-Educational Center of ISEDT RAS (8-11 grades). The obtained results suggest that the key issue in terms of occupational self-determination corresponding to teenagers' personal inclinations is their unawareness about the conditions and basic requirements for the profession; about their own physiological capabilities; the inability to compare their preferences with the real abilities...
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Measuring the dynamics of agglomerative processes in the regional economy
Статья научная
The article deals with an approach to studying agglomerations’ socio-economic characteristics on the basis of criterial indicators system. The regional agglomerative process has been measured by calculating numerical scores and generalized estimates according to 16 indicators that correspond to the criteria of agglomerative development. The calculations are based on the statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service. Calculated estimates allow to measure the dynamics of regional agglomerative process, fix recession and growth periods, understand the specifics of this process in every region and manage it. It becomes possible to obtain information not only about the quantitative but qualitative changes in the regional agglomerative process: one can see the areas of region’s lagging or leading and use this information in developing regional policy, strategic planning and management.
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Статья научная
The main prerequisite for successful innovative development is the natural course of modernization of world industries, currently characterized by the transition to “Industry 4.0”, where the main driver is information technology (including digital). With regard to the Kazakhstan economy, the emphasis is increased according to the Message of the President of Khazakhstan Nazarbayev N.A. to the people of Kazakhstan “The Third Modernization of Kazakhstan: Global Competitiveness”, dated 31.01.2017. He delivered “the first priority - accelerated technological modernization of the economy”. At the same time, an important aspect of accelerated technological modernization is the provision that it is important “to cultivate new industries that are created with the use of digital technology”. The purpose for the article is to develop scientific and practical recommendations and effective organizational and economic mechanisms to form IT-clusters in the regions of Kazakhstan on the way to “Industry 4.0”...
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the study of mechanisms of formation and implementation of organizational and managerial components of the region's human capital in the conditions of transition to innovation type of economy. The algorithm of forming the organizational and managerial components of human potential in the conditions of transition to innovation economy is proposed.
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