Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Methodological aspects in forecasting innovation development of dairy cattle breeding in the region
Статья научная
Due to the fact that Russia is now a member of the World Trade Organization, long-term forecasting becomes an objectively necessary condition that helps choose an effective science-based long-term strategy for development of dairy cattle breeding that would take into consideration intellectual and innovative characteristics. Current structure of available statistical information does not meet modern challenges of innovation development and does not reflect adequately the trends of ongoing changes. The paper suggests a system of indicators to analyze the status, development and prospects of dairy cattle breeding in the region; this system provides timely identification of emerging risks and threats of deviation from the specified parameters. The system included indicators contained in the current statistical reporting and new indicators of innovation development of the industry, the quality of human capital and the level of government support. When designing the system of indicators, we used several methodological aspects of the Oslo Manual, which the Federal State Statistics Service considers to be an official methodological document concerning the collection of information about innovation activities...
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Статья научная
Globalization of the economy and increased competition leads to the need to strengthen the functions of the Russian government to ensure food security of the country and, accordingly, the consolidation of mechanisms of state regulation of agricultural economy and food markets. The importance of solving the problems of information security, a high degree of reliability of the information provided by the Government of the relevant statistical authorities is growing. The relevance of obtaining high-quality statistical information for the adoption of timely and informed decisions by the government on the management of the national economy has increased significantly during the period of political and economic confrontation between Russia and the West in terms of sanctions and counter-sanctions. Taking fishing industry and its product - the water biological resources - as an example, the author of the present study carried out a structural analysis of the methodology for composing the balance of fish and fish products to determine the per capita level of consumption, described the different approaches to assessing the level of consumption of water biological resources, structured export indicators of water biological resources gathered from various official sources, on the basis of which the author revealed significant differences in the assessment of the situation...
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Methodological aspects of governing residential solid waste management sphere
Статья научная
The article is based on the results of our research on government regulation of waste treatment. The goal of the first phase of the study is to substantiate methodological provisions on arranging residential solid waste management in the region (municipality). Informational and empirical base of the research was formed with the use of the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, materials of monographs, surveys on environmental policy in foreign countries, publications in periodicals, information presented on official websites of enterprises and state and municipal authorities, as well as the data that we obtained while analyzing the situation and making observations. The object of the research is organization of residential solid waste management. Our working hypothesis that we prove is the thesis that state regulation mechanisms dominate in managing the development of waste treatment sphere and that there is a possibility of limited admission of market self-regulation tools managing residential solid waste treatment in the region (municipality)...
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Статья научная
When it comes to the development of industrial enterprises, there is always the possibility of a crisis; therefore, for continuous sustainable operation it is necessary to develop preventive tools to predict the crisis processes in advance. The present paper covers the objective of developing and testing models for estimating the probability of bankruptcy based on logistic regression for sustainable development of domestic industrial enterprises. The study was conducted within the pharmaceutical industry, yet the methods of development and the testing technique can be applied in other industries. The paper presents the stages of model development (predictor formation, correlation and regression analysis) and its testing (evaluation of statistics parameters, comparative analysis with existing models). The use of the logistics model of bankruptcy assessment helps analyze the correlation between the indicators of enterprise’s economic condition and its degree of bankruptcy. Moreover, such a model can quantify the probability of bankruptcy at an industrial enterprise. The reliability and validity of the presented results is confirmed by the generalization of theoretical and methodological studies of experts in this field, the applied results are based on a large amount of financial information of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises and confirmed by the use of algorithms of economic and mathematical modeling recognized in the scientific community. The study used indicators of economic condition based on public reporting of 266 pharmaceutical companies, where one hundred companies were engaged in model development and the rest - its testing. The developed model is able to predict the probability of bankruptcy of pharmaceutical enterprises two years ahead. The small amount of calculations and lack of highly technical calculations helps quickly obtain information about the economic condition and versatile calculation makes it possible to conduct a comparative analysis of enterprises in the context of one industry.
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Methodological aspects of the assessment of the investment and innovation potential of a region
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is caused by the fact that the increase of the investment activity, which has remained low over the last few years, is a necessary condition for the transition of the country's economy to an innovative development path. It leads to the preservation of technological backwardness which conserves the structure of the economy with a low share of the knowledge-intensive sector. The interdependence and interconnectedness of investment and innovation processes allows us to review the investment and innovation potential as the basis of their development. While studying scientific papers, it was revealed that issues of content, structure, and the evaluation of this potential are debatable, and they require further comprehension. The purpose of this article is to develop methodological provisions for assessing the investment and innovation potential of the region. In the course of studying the works of domestic and foreign scientists, the authors of the article investigated approaches to determining innovation and investment potentials and methods of their assessment, clarified the content of investment and innovation potential, identified its structural elements, and proposed a methodological approach to its assessment, which allows establishing the relationship between used investment resources and the results of the innovation activity. During the study, we assessed the investment and innovation potential of Russian regions, identified problems of its formation and the usage, as well as trends that make it possible to determine the guidelines for the development of investment and innovation processes. The methodological basis of the research are the methods of system analysis and synthesis, comparison, generalization, grouping and statistical methods. The results of the study may be of practical interest for regional authorities' activities and the management in order to improve the effectiveness of investment and innovation processes. Theoretical generalizations, contained in the article, might be used as materials for the discussion in a scientific discourse.
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Methodological foundations of sustainable development of the agricultural sector
Статья научная
The paper analyzes the different perspectives on the concept of “sustainability”, “sustainable development”, the content of sustainable development of the agricultural sector as a complex socio-ecological-economic system is clarified and supplemented. The factors and indicators of sustainable development of agriculture are identified.
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Статья научная
The article deals with the issues of territorial planning in tourism sphere. It characterizes the concept of ‘cluster’, identifies the purposes of its creation and its main elements. Besides, the article investigates the possibility of creating a tourism and recreation cluster on the territory of Zaonezhye in the Republic of Karelia. It also provides a simplified cluster model and identifies its main features. Moreover, the barriers impeding the creation of the cluster are defined, and measures for their elimination are proposed here.
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Methodological issues of assessing the effects of social inequality in Russia's regions
Статья научная
The article deals with the issue concerning the assessment of the impact of social inequality on the socio-demographic characteristics of society. The authors evaluate the impact of the social inequality growth in the Russian Federation subjects on the basis of the analysis of the decile ratio dynamics. They propose a methodological approach to determine the degree of dependence of crime rate on the growth of social inequality. The authors compare the influence of the decile ratio and purchasing power on mortality rate in the regions of Russia.
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Статья научная
The purpose for the research is to study the resilience of regional human population against environmental impacts based on evaluation of quality indicators of environmental living conditions and promotion of population's health on the one hand, and on population's mortality for a number of causes related to environmental degradation on the other hand. Indicators of environmental degradation may include expanding industrial production, energy consumption, population density, growing number of motor vehicles etc. The study is initiated by the trends of the second epidemiologic transition according to which diseases and causes of mortality are mostly attributable to endogenous factors related to natural ageing of a human body, its declining age-related vitality and resistance to adverse external impacts including environment. The novelty of the research lies in assessment of both population's resilience against this kind of impacts in regions with varied concentration of population and facilities used for economic purposes, and causes of morbidity and mortality from this type of impacts...
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the urgent researching problems of integration and modeling of foreign economic activity in the little-studied aspect of the relation system “country - region of another country”. It considers the developmental trends of trade and economic integration between the regions of the North-West Federal District and the Republic of Belarus. The article describes a mathematical apparatus of gravitational modeling of foreign-economic interaction that is tested on the base of statistical accountability of the regions of the North-West Federal District and the Republic of Belarus.
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Статья научная
The article considers the issues of improvement of methodological support in assessing the effectiveness of the state social and economic policy in relation to Russia’s northern regions. It provides a brief analysis of methodological approaches and mechanisms to assess the policies based on the function of the area of assessment, the object, subject and target of assessment, and depending on the methods of estimation. The authors point out the absence of a common approach to interpretation of the notions of “effectiveness” and “performance efficiency” of a policy, this fact leads to ambiguity and complexity of assessment. The methodological tools proposed by the authors for assessing the implementation of the policy include key principles and an algorithm. Assessment of policy effectiveness using the proposed tools includes socio-economic, environmental and institutional components. The socio-economic component involves evaluation of the goals and objectives of the policy with regard to Russia’s northern regions on the basis of qualitative and quantitative indicators...
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Methodology and mechanisms of funding the social welfare system in the northern regions
Статья научная
The article deals with the notion ‘social assistance’ as a form of social protection. It gives the definition of the concept ‘social assistance measures’ and analyzes such forms of social assistance as regular monetary payments, lump-sum payments and monetary compensation provided in the Northern regions. Besides, the article analyzes expenditure obligations of the Russian Federation and its subjects on the provision of social assistance measures. Furthermore, it determines the dynamics of structural changes in the categories of population receiving social support in the Northern regions for the period from 2012 to 2020.
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Статья научная
The article examines the features of interactions between Russian scientific organizations and universities and foreign scientists. Despite the effort to collect and compile data on different types of international interactions between scientists, Russian academic literature does not pay sufficient attention to the activities of foreign scientists working in Russia. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to close the gaps in scientific knowledge connected to the research on academic mobility including identification of types and features of interactions between Russian scientific organizations and foreign scientists, to discover the connection between academic mobility and productivity of scientists, and to improve methods of arrangement for the data related to the status and performance of the academia. To accomplish this goal, we propose a methodology for monitoring the interaction of Russian organizations with foreign scientists. We carry out the monitoring taking into account the priorities formulated in the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation (hereinafter - STD Strategy of Russia). The monitoring provided the data about the quantity of foreign scientists, who visited Russian scientific organizations and higher education institutions in 2018 and 2019, the statistics on the distribution of foreign scientists working in Russia by age groups, by scientific fields, by types of interaction, and by Russian regions. The following issues require thorough consideration: the choice of parameters for assessing the work of educational and scientific organizations and the need to take into account priorities of STD Strategy of Russia for monitoring and evaluating the interaction between Russian organizations and foreign scientists, the presence or absence of stable links between the mobility of scientists and their scientific productivity, the absence and fragmentation of data on foreign scientists working in Russia, and flaws in the methods for collecting and monitoring such data. The methodology has been tested using data from previous surveys. Following the test, we propose specific steps for improving data collection on broad participation of Russia in global science processes. The obtained results can be used by private and state organizations, including the management of higher education organizations, heads of scientific organizations (scientific departments), which will serve as the basis for accurate positioning of Russia on the world map of scientific and technological cooperation.
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Статья научная
In the rapidly changing conditions of the current technological paradigm new methodological approaches are required to assess effective management using modern digital tools (digital twins) that help to increase the quality and efficiency of economic processes to make timely and balanced management decisions. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing scenarios for the development of the tourism industry in Kamchatka Krai on the basis of digital twin technology. Scientific novelty of the proposed methodology is the use of structural and situational dynamics methods with the involvement of data processing statistical methods in AnyLogic environment. The developed model is a modern digital tool that helps to convert a set of diverse data into a timely and balanced management decision based on an understanding of the current state of the industry and the prospects for its development. The theoretical significance lies in the scientific justification of the digital twin concepts and their application in simulation modeling in relation to the tourism industry. The practical significance is that the digital twin allows simulating different scenarios of Kamchatka Krai tourism industry development, thereby reducing the number of routine business processes and the influence of human factor on the quality of service. Using the assessment results, we have identified optimal scenarios for the development of the tourism industry in Kamchatka Krai, its bottlenecks, and determined that the introduction of scenario simulation modeling will regularly calculate the basis the tourist expenses and, consequently, the tourist industry income, and through multipliers - the regional budget income, and other integral indicators to improve the competitiveness of the tourism industry in the region. In contrast to the traditional analytics of processes based on tables and linear dependence, the developed digital twin makes it possible to observe the detailed behavior of the system in time, to keep track of tourist preferences and the capacity of tourist attraction points, to give recommendations on the placement of new objects. The obtained results can be used in the formation of proposals for the development of the tourism industry, and the monitoring of its condition and efficiency.
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Статья научная
The development and active introduction of information and communication technologies contributes to the emergence of new forms of citizen electronic participation in socio-political processes and the expansion of the circle of persons involved in these processes. In this regard, it becomes urgent to develop a method for evaluating the effectiveness of the use of existing information and communication technologies to enhance citizen socio-political participation. Currently, the scientific literature and management practice do not possess a single integrated approach to carry out such an assessment. The issue requires further study and elaboration, since the existing methods assume a one-sided assessment, in most cases focused on quantitative indicators. The article presents a four-aspect approach to the development of a comprehensive indicator of the effectiveness of citizens of socio-political activity through information and communication technologies. The proposed methodology is based on the fact that the effectiveness of information and communication technologies in increasing socio-political participation is determined by the ability of citizens, involved with their help in socio-political processes to participate in the policy pursued by the authorities, influence it and even determine it. The effectiveness of such socio-political participation depends on four aspects (technical, economic, social and political), each of which is determined by a set of indicators. All these aspects affect the perception of information and communication technologies, used by citizens for the manifestation of socio-political activity, as well as assessing the level of their accessibility, satisfaction with them and trust in them. The methodology was tested as part of a study of the socio-political participation of the Tyumen Oblast citizens using modern technologies. The study will be interesting for government and business representatives involved in the development, implementation, improvement of existing information and communication technologies for the purpose of citizens’ socio-political participation.
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Статья научная
The formation of a rational transport network and the development of vehicles should be marked by the achievement of socio-territorial justice, which is understood as a guarantee of transport accessibility of social services, increase and economy of man’s free time, reduction in the degree of uncertainty of economic activity in the part that depends on transport factors. According to the author, the priorities of the assessment of transport security include the duration of the trip from the settlements to the centers of social services and year-round transportation. Each type of social services has normative values of transport accessibility, corresponding to the needs of a particular region, and they are the basis for strategic planning in the services sector. For instance, the standard time for provision of emergency medical aid is 40 minutes. The level of transport discrimination is defined as the proportion of the population living outside the standard time. The author proposes a formula for determining the weighted average costs of time that a transport user needs for reaching a certain destination (e.g., hospital, school, etc.) from any other departure point...
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Methodology for assessing the work of small business at the municipal level
Статья научная
In order to promote sustainable socio-economic development in a municipality, its local authorities face the task of establishing an industrial and financial base on their territory, it will help increase its level of economic independence. On the basis of foreign experience and domestic research on territorial development it can be concluded that one of the most effective ways to enhance the level of socio-economic development of the municipality is to boost its small business. Effective management of this economic sector requires adequate assessment of its functioning at the municipal level. The analysis of existing methodologies for assessing the functioning of small business at the municipal level shows that none of them meets the criteria that the author of the present paper has selected and that are necessary for efficient research into the small business sector. In this regard, a methodology for estimating the work of small business at the municipal level was elaborated, and tested on the statistic data of municipal formations of the Vologda Oblast...
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Methodology for defining pivotal settlements in the Russian Arctic
Статья научная
Settlement in new regions of the Russian North, available for new economic exploitation, started at the beginning of the 20th century: the exploration of mineral deposits, its mining and shipment into southern regions commenced at the same time. Experience of building cities as trade and industrial centers, marine ports, and military settlements, which was acquired in the 18th-19th centuries, was insufficient. It was necessary to define forms of settlement, quantitative parameters of emerging communities, and convenience of the latter. Discussions and knowledge acquisition resulted in a consent to build permanently populated large cities. It was suggested to build basic cities in the North and pivotal cities, which would have infrastructural functions, in nearby areas. Quantitative guidelines on population numbers for each type of settlement were proposed: pivotal cities - 300 thousand residents, basic cities - 80-150 thousand people, industrial cities - 15-30 thousand inhabitants, watch and expeditionary villages- 3-5 thousand people. After making the Arctic Zone in the Russian North the independent management unit consisting of nine pivotal areas, it became necessary to justify settlement framework, which would meet new requirements. Thus, the purpose of this article is to develop the methodology of calculating the Index of Pivotal Settlement which would allow us to classify an urban settlement as a multifunctional pivotal settlement, a pivotal settlement, a potential pivotal settlement, and as a settlement which does not meet criteria of a pivotal one. The creation of this index is based on three methodological principles: complexity, consistency, and account of agglomeration effect. The calculation of the index of the Arctic pivotal settlements is carried out due to the concept of demographic gravitation. Acquired results would allow each Arctic pivotal area to determine pivotal settlements, and the centers of surrounding areas development.
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Статья научная
Modern methodological approaches and techniques for studying agglomeration effects are aimed at determining and evaluating the spatial potentials of development and interaction of territories of various hierarchical levels. But the possibilities of modern software that allows detecting intraagglomeration spatial reserves - spatial potentials - on cartographic models are not taken into account. The work uses spatial-functional and synergetic (agglomeration) approaches, as well as potential method, statistical method and cartographic modeling. We reveal the theoretical basis for the formation of spatial potentials in the intra-agglomeration environment and propose a methodological approach to their determination based on agglomeration effects of demographic, settlement and economic structures of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration. According to the calculations obtained, we design cartographic models that correspond to the structures under consideration and reflect spatial potentials of agglomeration effects, which are represented by groups of five clusters. The levels of clusters of spatial potentials and their configurations are obtained with the help of the neural network software “Surfer Golden Software”. We find that groups of clusters within the demographic and settlement potentials structure - gravitational, high-potential, medium-potential and low-potential - have smaller territorial impact areas in contrast to similar groups of clusters of economic structure. At the same time, a very low-potential cluster of demographic and settlement structure significantly exceeds the area of the similar cluster of economic structure and spreads beyond the cities located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration periphery. The areas for future research are related to the development of new methodological approaches and techniques aimed at searching for and modeling agglomeration effects and their spatial potentials in the functional structures of individual cities, urban agglomerations or regions (investment, innovation, environmental, transport, service, cultural and other structures). Another promising area consists in determining spatial potentials based on the agglomeration effects of individual large enterprises with the help of quantitative indicators reflecting their performance effectiveness; this direction is difficult to implement due to the lack of open statistical data.
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Статья научная
The methodology of estimating the milk production technologies efficiency during the summer period is described in the article. Three types of cow housing: stall and pasturable, camping and pasturable, stall and outdoor were analyzed and the results are produced here. It is proved, that for the farms of all types and sizes the camping and pasturable cow housing leads to the lowest values of reduced expenditures and milk cost price during the summer period. These performance indicators can be obtained only if the intensive technologies of milk production are used during the summer period, i.e. the combined green forage chain with the rotational rationed system of livestock grazing and two-shift work scheme.
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