Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1659
Статья научная
The purpose for the research is to study the resilience of regional human population against environmental impacts based on evaluation of quality indicators of environmental living conditions and promotion of population's health on the one hand, and on population's mortality for a number of causes related to environmental degradation on the other hand. Indicators of environmental degradation may include expanding industrial production, energy consumption, population density, growing number of motor vehicles etc. The study is initiated by the trends of the second epidemiologic transition according to which diseases and causes of mortality are mostly attributable to endogenous factors related to natural ageing of a human body, its declining age-related vitality and resistance to adverse external impacts including environment. The novelty of the research lies in assessment of both population's resilience against this kind of impacts in regions with varied concentration of population and facilities used for economic purposes, and causes of morbidity and mortality from this type of impacts...
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the urgent researching problems of integration and modeling of foreign economic activity in the little-studied aspect of the relation system “country - region of another country”. It considers the developmental trends of trade and economic integration between the regions of the North-West Federal District and the Republic of Belarus. The article describes a mathematical apparatus of gravitational modeling of foreign-economic interaction that is tested on the base of statistical accountability of the regions of the North-West Federal District and the Republic of Belarus.
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Статья научная
The article considers the issues of improvement of methodological support in assessing the effectiveness of the state social and economic policy in relation to Russia’s northern regions. It provides a brief analysis of methodological approaches and mechanisms to assess the policies based on the function of the area of assessment, the object, subject and target of assessment, and depending on the methods of estimation. The authors point out the absence of a common approach to interpretation of the notions of “effectiveness” and “performance efficiency” of a policy, this fact leads to ambiguity and complexity of assessment. The methodological tools proposed by the authors for assessing the implementation of the policy include key principles and an algorithm. Assessment of policy effectiveness using the proposed tools includes socio-economic, environmental and institutional components. The socio-economic component involves evaluation of the goals and objectives of the policy with regard to Russia’s northern regions on the basis of qualitative and quantitative indicators...
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Methodology and mechanisms of funding the social welfare system in the northern regions
Статья научная
The article deals with the notion ‘social assistance’ as a form of social protection. It gives the definition of the concept ‘social assistance measures’ and analyzes such forms of social assistance as regular monetary payments, lump-sum payments and monetary compensation provided in the Northern regions. Besides, the article analyzes expenditure obligations of the Russian Federation and its subjects on the provision of social assistance measures. Furthermore, it determines the dynamics of structural changes in the categories of population receiving social support in the Northern regions for the period from 2012 to 2020.
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Статья научная
The article examines the features of interactions between Russian scientific organizations and universities and foreign scientists. Despite the effort to collect and compile data on different types of international interactions between scientists, Russian academic literature does not pay sufficient attention to the activities of foreign scientists working in Russia. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to close the gaps in scientific knowledge connected to the research on academic mobility including identification of types and features of interactions between Russian scientific organizations and foreign scientists, to discover the connection between academic mobility and productivity of scientists, and to improve methods of arrangement for the data related to the status and performance of the academia. To accomplish this goal, we propose a methodology for monitoring the interaction of Russian organizations with foreign scientists. We carry out the monitoring taking into account the priorities formulated in the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation (hereinafter - STD Strategy of Russia). The monitoring provided the data about the quantity of foreign scientists, who visited Russian scientific organizations and higher education institutions in 2018 and 2019, the statistics on the distribution of foreign scientists working in Russia by age groups, by scientific fields, by types of interaction, and by Russian regions. The following issues require thorough consideration: the choice of parameters for assessing the work of educational and scientific organizations and the need to take into account priorities of STD Strategy of Russia for monitoring and evaluating the interaction between Russian organizations and foreign scientists, the presence or absence of stable links between the mobility of scientists and their scientific productivity, the absence and fragmentation of data on foreign scientists working in Russia, and flaws in the methods for collecting and monitoring such data. The methodology has been tested using data from previous surveys. Following the test, we propose specific steps for improving data collection on broad participation of Russia in global science processes. The obtained results can be used by private and state organizations, including the management of higher education organizations, heads of scientific organizations (scientific departments), which will serve as the basis for accurate positioning of Russia on the world map of scientific and technological cooperation.
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Статья научная
In the rapidly changing conditions of the current technological paradigm new methodological approaches are required to assess effective management using modern digital tools (digital twins) that help to increase the quality and efficiency of economic processes to make timely and balanced management decisions. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing scenarios for the development of the tourism industry in Kamchatka Krai on the basis of digital twin technology. Scientific novelty of the proposed methodology is the use of structural and situational dynamics methods with the involvement of data processing statistical methods in AnyLogic environment. The developed model is a modern digital tool that helps to convert a set of diverse data into a timely and balanced management decision based on an understanding of the current state of the industry and the prospects for its development. The theoretical significance lies in the scientific justification of the digital twin concepts and their application in simulation modeling in relation to the tourism industry. The practical significance is that the digital twin allows simulating different scenarios of Kamchatka Krai tourism industry development, thereby reducing the number of routine business processes and the influence of human factor on the quality of service. Using the assessment results, we have identified optimal scenarios for the development of the tourism industry in Kamchatka Krai, its bottlenecks, and determined that the introduction of scenario simulation modeling will regularly calculate the basis the tourist expenses and, consequently, the tourist industry income, and through multipliers - the regional budget income, and other integral indicators to improve the competitiveness of the tourism industry in the region. In contrast to the traditional analytics of processes based on tables and linear dependence, the developed digital twin makes it possible to observe the detailed behavior of the system in time, to keep track of tourist preferences and the capacity of tourist attraction points, to give recommendations on the placement of new objects. The obtained results can be used in the formation of proposals for the development of the tourism industry, and the monitoring of its condition and efficiency.
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Статья научная
The development and active introduction of information and communication technologies contributes to the emergence of new forms of citizen electronic participation in socio-political processes and the expansion of the circle of persons involved in these processes. In this regard, it becomes urgent to develop a method for evaluating the effectiveness of the use of existing information and communication technologies to enhance citizen socio-political participation. Currently, the scientific literature and management practice do not possess a single integrated approach to carry out such an assessment. The issue requires further study and elaboration, since the existing methods assume a one-sided assessment, in most cases focused on quantitative indicators. The article presents a four-aspect approach to the development of a comprehensive indicator of the effectiveness of citizens of socio-political activity through information and communication technologies. The proposed methodology is based on the fact that the effectiveness of information and communication technologies in increasing socio-political participation is determined by the ability of citizens, involved with their help in socio-political processes to participate in the policy pursued by the authorities, influence it and even determine it. The effectiveness of such socio-political participation depends on four aspects (technical, economic, social and political), each of which is determined by a set of indicators. All these aspects affect the perception of information and communication technologies, used by citizens for the manifestation of socio-political activity, as well as assessing the level of their accessibility, satisfaction with them and trust in them. The methodology was tested as part of a study of the socio-political participation of the Tyumen Oblast citizens using modern technologies. The study will be interesting for government and business representatives involved in the development, implementation, improvement of existing information and communication technologies for the purpose of citizens’ socio-political participation.
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Статья научная
The formation of a rational transport network and the development of vehicles should be marked by the achievement of socio-territorial justice, which is understood as a guarantee of transport accessibility of social services, increase and economy of man’s free time, reduction in the degree of uncertainty of economic activity in the part that depends on transport factors. According to the author, the priorities of the assessment of transport security include the duration of the trip from the settlements to the centers of social services and year-round transportation. Each type of social services has normative values of transport accessibility, corresponding to the needs of a particular region, and they are the basis for strategic planning in the services sector. For instance, the standard time for provision of emergency medical aid is 40 minutes. The level of transport discrimination is defined as the proportion of the population living outside the standard time. The author proposes a formula for determining the weighted average costs of time that a transport user needs for reaching a certain destination (e.g., hospital, school, etc.) from any other departure point...
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Methodology for assessing the work of small business at the municipal level
Статья научная
In order to promote sustainable socio-economic development in a municipality, its local authorities face the task of establishing an industrial and financial base on their territory, it will help increase its level of economic independence. On the basis of foreign experience and domestic research on territorial development it can be concluded that one of the most effective ways to enhance the level of socio-economic development of the municipality is to boost its small business. Effective management of this economic sector requires adequate assessment of its functioning at the municipal level. The analysis of existing methodologies for assessing the functioning of small business at the municipal level shows that none of them meets the criteria that the author of the present paper has selected and that are necessary for efficient research into the small business sector. In this regard, a methodology for estimating the work of small business at the municipal level was elaborated, and tested on the statistic data of municipal formations of the Vologda Oblast...
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Methodology for defining pivotal settlements in the Russian Arctic
Статья научная
Settlement in new regions of the Russian North, available for new economic exploitation, started at the beginning of the 20th century: the exploration of mineral deposits, its mining and shipment into southern regions commenced at the same time. Experience of building cities as trade and industrial centers, marine ports, and military settlements, which was acquired in the 18th-19th centuries, was insufficient. It was necessary to define forms of settlement, quantitative parameters of emerging communities, and convenience of the latter. Discussions and knowledge acquisition resulted in a consent to build permanently populated large cities. It was suggested to build basic cities in the North and pivotal cities, which would have infrastructural functions, in nearby areas. Quantitative guidelines on population numbers for each type of settlement were proposed: pivotal cities - 300 thousand residents, basic cities - 80-150 thousand people, industrial cities - 15-30 thousand inhabitants, watch and expeditionary villages- 3-5 thousand people. After making the Arctic Zone in the Russian North the independent management unit consisting of nine pivotal areas, it became necessary to justify settlement framework, which would meet new requirements. Thus, the purpose of this article is to develop the methodology of calculating the Index of Pivotal Settlement which would allow us to classify an urban settlement as a multifunctional pivotal settlement, a pivotal settlement, a potential pivotal settlement, and as a settlement which does not meet criteria of a pivotal one. The creation of this index is based on three methodological principles: complexity, consistency, and account of agglomeration effect. The calculation of the index of the Arctic pivotal settlements is carried out due to the concept of demographic gravitation. Acquired results would allow each Arctic pivotal area to determine pivotal settlements, and the centers of surrounding areas development.
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Статья научная
Modern methodological approaches and techniques for studying agglomeration effects are aimed at determining and evaluating the spatial potentials of development and interaction of territories of various hierarchical levels. But the possibilities of modern software that allows detecting intraagglomeration spatial reserves - spatial potentials - on cartographic models are not taken into account. The work uses spatial-functional and synergetic (agglomeration) approaches, as well as potential method, statistical method and cartographic modeling. We reveal the theoretical basis for the formation of spatial potentials in the intra-agglomeration environment and propose a methodological approach to their determination based on agglomeration effects of demographic, settlement and economic structures of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration. According to the calculations obtained, we design cartographic models that correspond to the structures under consideration and reflect spatial potentials of agglomeration effects, which are represented by groups of five clusters. The levels of clusters of spatial potentials and their configurations are obtained with the help of the neural network software “Surfer Golden Software”. We find that groups of clusters within the demographic and settlement potentials structure - gravitational, high-potential, medium-potential and low-potential - have smaller territorial impact areas in contrast to similar groups of clusters of economic structure. At the same time, a very low-potential cluster of demographic and settlement structure significantly exceeds the area of the similar cluster of economic structure and spreads beyond the cities located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration periphery. The areas for future research are related to the development of new methodological approaches and techniques aimed at searching for and modeling agglomeration effects and their spatial potentials in the functional structures of individual cities, urban agglomerations or regions (investment, innovation, environmental, transport, service, cultural and other structures). Another promising area consists in determining spatial potentials based on the agglomeration effects of individual large enterprises with the help of quantitative indicators reflecting their performance effectiveness; this direction is difficult to implement due to the lack of open statistical data.
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Статья научная
The methodology of estimating the milk production technologies efficiency during the summer period is described in the article. Three types of cow housing: stall and pasturable, camping and pasturable, stall and outdoor were analyzed and the results are produced here. It is proved, that for the farms of all types and sizes the camping and pasturable cow housing leads to the lowest values of reduced expenditures and milk cost price during the summer period. These performance indicators can be obtained only if the intensive technologies of milk production are used during the summer period, i.e. the combined green forage chain with the rotational rationed system of livestock grazing and two-shift work scheme.
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Methods for analyzing economic and social development of smart cities
Статья научная
The purpose of the study is to develop a typology of methods for analyzing economic and social development of smart cities. Having reviewed the works indexed in the global database Web of Science Core Collection we selected one and a half hundred articles on economic problems of smart cities development published in 2015-2021 and available in the public domain. We identify various methods for analyzing economic and social development of smart cities, differentiate them using the method of describing the objects under consideration (static and dynamic) and the method of model description (tables, diagrams, matrices, graphs). Static methods include methods for assessing ecosystem characteristics, input-output analysis, development diagrams, data ecosystems coordination analysis, assessment of the ecosystem for elderly residents. Dynamic methods include the Value Creation - Value Capturing matrices, stimulating management elements, “digital ecosystems - entrepreneurial ecosystems”, graphs showing the life cycle of the smart city ecosystem, evolution of civil ecosystems, stage-by-stage digital transformation, dynamic opportunities for innovation and the quadruple helix. We show the applicability of methods for analyzing the development of smart cities for various territories. We present our own results of assessment of the development of smart cities in Moscow, Yekaterinburg, Oslo, Singapore based on the 7I-model (infrastructure, institutions, intranet, integration, interfaces, innovations, implementation). Theoretical significance of the results obtained consists in the development of a theory of ecosystem analysis related to assessing the formation of smart cities; practical significance of the results lies in the development of applied tools for strategic planning in the field of smart city project development.
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Статья научная
The priority of the government policy in the current economic and social situation is to maintain constant innovation development in all social spheres; therefore, the formation of middle class as the guarantee of social stability appears to be particularly relevant due to certain characteristic features of middle class representatives. These features include responsibility, high social activity and consciousness. Therefore, research into the size and structure of middle class is one of the main goals of modern sociology. The article analyses the middle class in the region on the basis of sociological surveys conducted in2008-2013 in the Vologda Oblast and in the Northwestern Federal District. The authors present approaches to studying and assessing the middle class, and make an attempt to determine its size. The article proposes an internal structure of the middle class in the region and draws a portrait of a typical representative of this category. The authors have found out that social mobility of the middle class in the region is low due to a number of socio-economic factors; this fact hampers the growth of the middle class up to the quantity determined in the Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Vologda Oblast for the Period up to 2020.
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Migration attitudes of the students enrolled in arctic-focused higher education programs
Статья научная
The article presents the findings of a sociological survey conducted in the regions that are partially or completely included in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (hereinafter - the Russian Arctic). The goal of our research is to study migration attitudes of students and determine the factors affecting the readiness of future skilled personnel to leave the territory of the Russian Arctic. The survey was conducted among students enrolled in Arctic-focused higher education programs and trained for the needs of the economy and social sphere of the polar regions of Russia in the cities of Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Krasnoyarsk and Yakutsk. The study pays considerable attention to information-related and educational factors associated with the subject matter of the Arctic (“Arctic-focused” education; assessment of the extent of Arctic-related specifics of educational programs; awareness of specifics of formation of the Russian Arctic, and others). According to the results of the survey, migration attitudes of students are identified as quite strong...
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Статья научная
The planet watches a new planning phase of migration flows. In the era of economic globalization, restructuring of labor markets, social, cultural, political and economic transformations, the decision to migrate is linked to reasons such as the existence of pull factors in the destination, of a network linking origin and destination that minimize the constraints and dangers of the journey and, of course, economic aspects represented by the ability to achieve a “better life” with the gains obtained at the destination. It is clear that, although indispensable for the reorganization of the predominant mode of production in our society, the crisis we experience brings great challenges for the global economy. In this chapter, we analyze the importance of the female immigrant entrepreneurship that, faced with an economy that requires movement, could prove an economic and social potential that benefits from occasions and market segments little explored. This is because in the migration process, there may be new contexts for immigrants, which enables the development of its human capital. In other words, the material/intellectual accumulation of these individuals linked to its ability to reinvent themselves end up contributing to new economic arrangements.
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Migration of rural population of the Russian Far East at the beginning of the 21st century
Статья научная
Nearly a quarter of the population of the Far Eastern Federal District, which occupies 40.6% of Russia's area, lives in rural territories. It is obvious that rural population and its migration mobility have territorial differences in such a large region. The purpose of the study is to conduct a spatial and temporal analysis of dynamics and factors of migration processes in rural areas of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation. The work is based on the analysis of official statistical data. Since structural characteristics of migration flows are likely to change because of using a new methodology for accounting internal migration since 2011, we consider the period from January 2012 to January 2020. The authors show that migration is crucial for the formation of rural population. At the beginning of 2020, there was an increase in the intensity of migration processes in the district's rural areas, but the population's migration decline remains. Most migrants from rural areas settle in the Far Eastern Federal District - often, in towns. The flow of migrants from the town to the village retains statistical significance but does not correspond to the territorial structure of the migration outflow of rural residents. Based on the ratio of migration and natural population decline (growth), the authors developed a classification of rural areas in the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District for 2011 and 2019. We analyze the reasons for the arrival and departure of rural population. Most migrants arrive after a temporary absence and leave for personal and family reasons. The authors show the influence of the dynamics of migration processes on the development of rural areas and agriculture in the context of a shortage of labor resources and restrictions on international movements of labor immigrants using a case study of the border region.
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Migratory processes as mirrored by the transformations: border regions in Russia
Статья научная
The article deals with the migration processes which took place in Russia in the post-Soviet transitional period. The migration processes became particularly intense in the border regions thanks to the active policy of the authorities to establish transboundarycooperationwith the foreign countries. The transformational processes in the economic, political and social spheres of Russian society influenced directly over the dynamics of the migration processes.In addition to a detailed analysis of the theoretical foundations of migration researches the authors use the statistical materials, which indicate the dynamics of the migration processes between Russia and the near and far abroad countries.
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Mikhail Fedorovich Sychev celebrates his 80th birthday
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October 23, 2015, Mikhail Fedorovich Syche v, Ph.D. in Economics, Leading Research Associate at the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAScelebrated his 80th birthday.
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