Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1659
Статья научная
Socio-economic development of any territory is inherently connected with population reproduction, which is predetermined by demographic behavior. Recently, the models for the dynamics of Russia's demographic indicators have been changing, which is characterized by a decrease in the birth and death rates, as well as a relative stabilization of the migration situation. The transformation of demographic dynamics models is a natural result of society's adaptation to the new socio-economic reality. The changes in the behavior of the population are particularly noticeable under the conditions of abrupt transformations of the external environment, observed in the transitional periods of socioeconomic systems functioning. In this regard, the purpose of the study was to determine the main models of the dynamics of demographic indicators of the Russian Federation at the present stage of development, which is characterized by a rapid change in the conditions of life activity. Based on the use of the concept of adaptation in the “human-environment” coordinates, we showed the two-dimensional adaptation of the population to changes in the external environment and constructed a decision-tree for the acts of demographic behavior. In empirical part of the study, using methods of logical and statistical analysis, we studied the dynamics of indicators of reproductive, self-preservation and migration behavior of the population in the period from 2000 to 2019, using, respectively, a set of indicators of birth rate, mortality, life expectancy and migration growth. Based on highlighting the specific characteristics of Russia's socio-economic development in 2000-2006, 2007-2015, and 2016-2019, we identified three stages of demographic indicators dynamics, in accordance with which we proposed three models of demographic indicators dynamics, in order to expand our understanding of this phenomenon. The results obtained allowed us to form a methodological basis for future interdisciplinary research in the field of demographic behavior. They can also be used as a methodological basis for the development of demographic policy measures.
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Статья научная
The experience of effective forest management in the most developed forest countries proves the important role of the institutional environment in this process. Taking into account the territorial specifics is a necessary condition for its formation. In the Russian Federation, there has been a long-standing controversy about the ineffectiveness of the institutional environment existing in forest management. First of all, this applies to the institution of forest plots lease defined in the Forest code. As a rule, the discussions are based on the general indicators of forest development reducing the objectivity of individual elements evaluation. In this regard, one of the most important tasks at the moment is creating a methodology and tools allowing to obtain the estimates related to the development of individual elements of the forest management institutional environment, in particular, the elements of the forest lease system. The main purpose of the research is to develop the general approaches in order to analyze the dynamics of the environment elements formation associated with the lease of forest plots in the region of the Russian Federation and obtain the appropriate models on this basis. To achieve this goal, the system of forest lease in the Vologda region was studied and the models for the development of its main elements were formed. The methods of system approach, analysis and synthesis, generalization and comparison, classification and systematization, mathematical statistics were used. The scientific novelty of the research involves developing approaches to creating the models describing the dynamics of the forest lease system elements development in the Russian Federation using linear approximation of time series of their parameters. The theoretical significance lies in the development of a methodology for studying the dynamics of the institutional environment formation associated with the system of forest lease in the region of the Russian Federation. In practical terms, the research findings will allow to determine the main trends in the development of the forest lease system at a higher quality level for further comprehensive analysis, as well as to make short- and medium-term forecasts.
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Models of matrimonial and reproductive behavior of Russian youth
Статья научная
Based on statistical indicators, the Federal State Statistics Service presented the demographic forecast of the Russian Federation until 2035. In all three forecast options (low, medium, high), natural population growth is negative, only its intensity changes. Population growth is presented only in a high forecast and is corrected by a decrease in the rate of natural decline and intensification of migration growth. It is possible to reverse the negative trends and implement the high version of the forecast if favorable conditions are created for the implementation of the marriage and reproductive behavior of young people as the main demographic resource. The aim of the study is the analytical modeling of the marriage and reproductive behavior of young people under the age of 35 based on the data of the author’s sociological research. The article is based on the methods of estimating average values according to the distributions of respondents’ answers, their ranking to determine the priority of factors. Statistical methods for measuring and analyzing social information are widely used: chi-square statistic for testing hypotheses, contingency tables (cross-tabulation), Pearson and Chuprov’s mutual contingency coefficients, as well as the concordance coefficient (multiple rank correlation). The results made it possible to implement analytical modeling of the matrimonial and reproductive behavior of young people under the age of 35, depending on the self-assessment of their standard of living, in particular, to reliably determine the impact of the standard of living of young people on their decision to start married life and have a child, to identify young people’s opinions about the significance of motives to postpone the birth of a child for different groups depending on the self-assessment of the standard of living.
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Models of revitalization of old-industrial cities: case studies of Siberia
Статья научная
The study of re-industrialization processes in relation to the Russian economy as a whole, to macro-regions, federal districts, separate constituent entities, single-industry towns is a fairly common area of scientific research, both theoretical and applied. However, for many Siberian cities the issue of economic restructuring is also relevant. With the transition to market economy Siberian cities turned from points of economic growth into lagging territorial entities with a full range of socio-economic problems. At the moment, most of them are currently searching for their own way and development model. The main purpose for the research is to assess the prospects of economic re-industrialization in Siberian cities of different size. We introduce the term “economic revitalization” which is more suitable for determining the process of economic restructuring of individual cities. In order to collect information we performed field research in the Kemerovo Oblast, Altai Krai, and Irkutsk Oblast using the methods of observation, monitoring, systematization, and survey...
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Modern Russian demographic policy in the field of fertility: results and areas for improvement
Статья научная
In recent years, Russia has been pursuing the demographic policy focused on the support of the birth of the second and more children. The paper discusses the development of this policy, assesses its effectiveness and suggests areas for improvement. It has been established that the expansion of demographic policy measures by introducing in 2011 the regional maternal capital for the birth of the third child in addition to the federal capital for the second child gave positive results. It helped extend the positive trend in the birth rate as the situation concerning the women of childbearing age began to worsen; it also helped older generations to decide in favor of having children rather than wait for better times; in addition, this policy helped extend the families through additional births, strengthen the family component of fertility, and promote reproductive attitudes of the population. In spite of the fears, the growth in the number of decisions to have children took place not only in older age cohorts...
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Modern development of small and medium-sized cities: trends and drivers
Статья научная
The processes of urbanization occurring in the world and in Russia, in addition to large cities and megacities, also affect small and medium-sized cities. However, while for the former there is a great deal of research on both the inner-city environment and socio-economic development in general, for the latter there is a lack of such studies. The main idea of the article is that an effective policy for the development of a city requires a comprehensive analysis of its place and role in the regional system and an understanding of the factors that ensure economic growth and create attractive conditions for the population. The purpose of the paper is to identify trends in and drivers of socio-economic development of small and medium-sized cities. The study identified problems and “bottlenecks” in the analysis of urban development. They include the weakness of methodological approaches to the assessment of current trends and factors in the development of small and medium-sized cities, taking into account their specifics, as well as the lack of necessary statistical information for a full-fledged analysis. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that we propose our own methodology for determining the trends and factors in development of small and medium-sized cities, which differs from traditional approaches by including the analysis of the distribution of cities in the regional system (according to Zipf’s law) in the dynamics and constructing a system of econometric models of the influence of factors on social and economic development. Testing the proposed approach in the Belgorod Oblast revealed a trend of divergence of small and medium-sized cities, increasing imbalances in population distribution, and the growth of small urban and rural settlements near Belgorod. The scientific hypothesis of the study is that the socio-economic situation in small and medium-sized cities is primarily positively influenced by investment in fixed capital and only then by such factors as an increase in housing stock, educational development, the work of sports and cultural institutions. The factors contributing to the social and economic development of cities are investments in fixed capital, the total number of residents, especially schoolchildren, the housing supply, and the development of sports and cultural institutions. The research findings are of practical value for the design and implementation of development policies for small and medium-sized cities in Russia.
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Modern development of the system of cities in Russia: static and dynamic approaches
Статья научная
The article raises the issues of urban transformation. The provisions of the new economic geography state that large cities get agglomeration effects from overcrowding, businesses and amenities. But practice shows that medium and small cities often have more prospects for development. Borrowed size (the location of a small or medium-sized city or settlement near a larger one) allows residents to use some of the services of neighboring cities without incurring the associated costs. The possibility of borrowing agglomeration advantages is forming a new system of cities. The distribution of population and economic activity does not always occur around administrative centers, there is a polycentricity of spatial development. To analyze the system of cities we proposed to use static and dynamic approaches that allow us to determine more fully the reasons for the attractiveness of cities and population growth. We constructed a system of econometric models of the influence of high order urban functions - factors of economy, education, culture and sports - on the number of residents of cities in the Central Federal District of Russia as a whole and by size categories. The analysis of polycentricity of cities revealed that a high level of the indicator is observed in the Moscow, Vladimir, Belgorod, Tula, Tver and Kaluga oblasts, and low polycentricity is in the Lipetsk, Ryazan, Voronezh and Orel oblasts. It was determined that the attractiveness of cities and the growth of their population are influenced by high-order urban functions (business, science, sports and culture), the ability to take advantage of “borrowed” size, the external effects of the urban network and the level of inter-city cooperation. The most significant factor in the growth of the city is the number of schools. The second factor is the possibility for children and adolescents to join sports clubs. Budget expenditures have a positive impact on the growth of large, big and small cities. Cultural and recreational activities are significant for the attractiveness of cities with a population of up to 10 thousand people and from 15 to 20 thousand people. It was revealed that more than a half of settlements in the Central Federal District are cities and urban-type settlements with population less than 10 thousand people. For this group, all the considered development factors are statistically significant and important. The results can be used to further develop the ideas of static and dynamic analysis to assess the reasons for the attractiveness of cities, substantiate the “borrowed size factor”, and determine general trends in the system of cities formation. The practical value of the work lies in a better understanding of the principles for creating an attractive city for residents at different stages and conditions of its development; it can be used in the development of appropriate socio-economic programs at the city and regional levels.
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Modern forms and methods to motivate the population to engage in creative labor activity
Статья научная
Socio-economic changes are accompanied by the growing complexity of labor and transformation of its content in the direction of innovative and creative aspects. The spread of such labor makes it necessary to search for new approaches to motivate employees to use their labor and creative potential effectively. Our study considers new forms of non-financial incentives such as taking part in participatory governance, creating management systems designed to ensure the involvement of talented and creative employees in innovation projects and promotion of their career advancement. The goal of our research is to study the impact of traditional (fair pay, good working conditions, etc.) and modern (creative approach, participation of employees in corporate management, etc.) motivation factors on the quality of labor potential and parameters of its implementation (in particular, productivity and wages). The novelty of our study consists in the fact that it tests methodological aspects that characterize the quality of labor potential and individual parameters of its implementation in the population groups that differ in their degree of satisfaction with motivation factors, taking into account the degree of their relevance. The difference between the approach we apply and the existing ones is that in our case it is not only possible to overcome the problem of judgment motives as objectified social facts, but also to justify a thesis according to which the role of modern motivation factors in the work of the population is underestimated. In particular, the latter is due to the fact that the results of the analysis have shown that the low importance of modern motivation factors is associated with a higher quality of labor potential, productivity and wages, while the high importance of traditional motivation factors can often lead to opposite results. Methodological provisions regarding the assessment of specific aspects of labor activity and daily life of the population concerning their satisfaction with them and their importance can be used as a tool to analyze the existing or emerging motivation systems at the organizational level.
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Modern particularities of economic interests demonstration in the exchange phase
Статья научная
In modern conditions the development of retail trade as the key element of the exchange phase is one of the priority directions of economic policy of the Russian Federation. At the same time the galloping increase in trade volumes, connected with economic appeal of branch, has more often started to lead to an aggravation of contradictions between the manufacturer, large distributing networks often inclined to monopolization of the prices, and the consumer. The multidimensional analysis of growth of retail trade, and also the basic spheres of display of economic interests of participants of distribution and their contradictions are given in the article.
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Статья научная
The paper considers the trends in fertility in recent years and the factors causing them. The authors identify the changes in the standards of the population’s reproductive behavior, especially reproductive attitudes of different age cohorts and the impact of family income upon the modern reproductive expectations. The conclusion about the urgent need for enhancing the state pro-family population policy is justified.
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Modern territorial and socio-demographic specifics of long-distance commuting in Russia
Статья научная
The uneven spatial development of Russia is manifested not only in the heterogeneity of residents’ settlement, but also in the transformation of the socio-economic sphere, including local labor markets shrinkage, which inevitably affects migration mobility. One of the most common types of migration is return short-term labor migration (otkhodnichestvo), in particular, long-distance commuting. Taking into account the socio-economic and socio-cultural contrasts of urban and rural areas, it is important to understand the differences in the scale of long-distance commuting and in the portrait of migrants themselves. The aim of the research is to assess regional differences in the contribution of rural and urban population to long-distance commuting, to identify socio-demographic characteristics of rural and urban rotational labor migrants. The information base includes data from the All-Russian Population Census-2020 and the selective monitoring of the use of the daily temporal resource by the It is confirmed that rural population is more involved in long-distance commuting. Despite the fact that urban and rural long-distance commuting workers are involved mainly in long-term migration, the proportion of long-term departures is noticeably higher among the former, while shortterm trips are more common among the latter. It is established that the majority of urban residents leave for work to other regions, while every third long-distance commuting migrant from rural areas leaves for work within the region of their residence. It is shown that Russia’s regions are markedly differentiated by the share of urban and rural residents in the total number of long-distance commuting migrants, and by the ratio of the contribution of urban and rural residents to general, short-term and long-term longdistance commuting, as well as intraregional and interregional long-distance commuting work. Typical features were confirmed in the socio-demographic portrait of long-distance commuting migrants, and rural-urban differences were revealed.
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Статья научная
The processes of human resources formation and development are among the topical areas of research on the growth of national economies. China, like other developing countries, is building an innovation economy, and considers its national human capital as a key factor in its further growth. China has the greatest amount of human resources among all countries of the world, which largely ensures its success in the global economy; however, birth control policy and other factors led to the emergence of several issues that may have a significant impact on the formation of human capital and further economic growth of the country. The purpose of the present study is to reveal modern trends in the formation of human resources of China by considering the demographic, urban and economic aspects. The paper defines the concept of national human resources, substantiates the urgency of a comprehensive research into the accumulation of human potential in a populous country such as China...
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Modern ways to boost economic growth in regions
Статья научная
The paper reviews Russian and foreign research on modern ways to boost regional economic growth on the example of regional development institutions. We have chosen project management and regional development agencies as the most promising institutions for regional development. The growing interest in project management is confirmed by the data of the international database ScienceDirect, in which the number of articles on this topic for 1996-2019 was 19.5 thousand, and their annual number has increased 3.8-fold during this period. There is a similar trend in Russia: according to the electronic library eLIBRARY.RU the number of articles on this topic for the period from 2000 to 2019 has increased 87.5-fold, and their total number for this period was 1.2 thousand. Our main research method is cross-country comparative analysis. We investigate advantages and disadvantages of project financing on the examples of the Sydney Opera House (Australia), the Olympic Stadium in Montreal (Canada), the Concorde supersonic airliner (France-UK), the Suez Canal (Egypt), the Hubble Space Telescope (USA-EU), the Humber Bridge (UK). While studying international experience of regional development agencies, we have classified them into three types: agencies for ensuring regional leveling within the country (Scotland, Australia, Canada); agencies for ensuring economic leveling within an international association of countries (EU-Poland, Romania, Portugal); agencies that help countries join the world’s leading nations on the basis of the innovative economy (China, Malaysia, Botswana). A summary analysis of the works that study the activities of regional development agencies has allowed us to present the institutions under consideration on a system-wide basis and to identify their weak and strong points that should be taken into account in the development of this tool that helps enhance economic growth in Russia’s regions.
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Modernization as social becoming (ten theses on modernization)
Статья научная
The paper presents thesis characteristic of modernization in keeping with the key ideas of the social establishment theory. Modernization is a specific way of social establishment that provides the population with wide-open access to the expanding capabilities of human potential implementation. The important task for the pro-modernization authorities is creating the structural and institutional grounds on which people can implement their human potential completely. The era of globalization incorporates numerous types of modernization. Mutual adaptation of that types as well as preservation of local traditions and conditions within the frames of transformation is of crucial importance for the era of globalization and modernization. The composition of innovations with social memory and traditions is the optimal course of modernization. It is important to understand that, besides creation of the new, modernization involves destruction of the old. That is why the ambivalent balance is significant.
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Modernization of a region as a heterarchical system
Статья научная
Modern world is dynamic, variable and full of risks, which requires the development of flexible and dynamic mechanisms to modernize regional social systems. For modern Russian regions, different in pace of development and people's quality of life, it is important to develop such theoretical and methodological approaches to based to identify resources and problem areas of modernization. The research novelty lies in the analysis of modernization in a region using the theoretical and methodological capabilities of the system approach, the concepts of heterarchy and modernization. We emphasize the overlap of subject fields of terms “heterarchy”, “region”, and “modernization” in matters of principles (value basis) of modernization process management in the region using the heterarchy resources. Based on the results of the monitoring sociological study conducted during 2010-2016 in the Astrakhan Oblast sing the interview method at the place of residence according to the Standard Methodology of the all-Russian program “Socio-Cultural Evolution of Russia and its Regions”, we revealed the strengthening of the vertical of power, that is, hierarchical relations in the institutional and regulatory sphere...
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Статья научная
This paper summarizes the approaches to the definition of the category “economic modernization” and identifies its common and specific characteristics. The basic strategies of modernization and development of innovative processes are considered, the classification of economic modernization depending on a way of its realization and character of plant renewal is presented in this paper. The necessity of the Russian economy modernization is also proved, the purpose, problems and priority ways of its carrying out are formulated. It is argued that Russia needs new industrialization (with the active and coordinated participation of government, business, science and society) with creating competitive industry producing the required products for the country.
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Modernization of the economy of Karelia
Статья научная
The article briefly outlines the main directions of the modernization policies directed on maintenance stable sustainable development of economy of the Republic of Karelia. Measures taken by the authorities and business structures to effectively manage the processes that contribute to the socio-economic development of the region are considered.
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Modernization trends of forestry complex in the region (the Karelia Republic's case)
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the issue of the traditional branches’ enhancement. Karelia Republic’s forestry complex is considered as the example of the region’s traditional branch. The comparison of Karelia’s wood industry and Finland’s one is represented. The author chooses labor productivity (the factor of the intensive development) as the key parameter of enhancement. The dynamics of the wood complex’s development in Karelia from 1990 till 2009 is considered. The branch enhancement’s directions are offered according to the revealed tendencies.
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