Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
National security strategy - 2021: positive experiences and conflicting expectations
Статья научная
In May 2016, analyzing the interim results of the third presidential term of V.V. Putin, as well as the National Security Strategy, signed by the head of state on December 31, 2015, we have concluded that “the contradictions existing today in the public administration system are a natural result of the President's activities” related to the unresolved task of “bringing the interests of the elites in line with the national security interests” (Source: Ilyin V.A. President Vladimir Putin's third four-year term: contradictory outcomes - an expected result. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast, 2016, no. 2 (44). pp. 9-21). Five years later, in the middle of 2021, a number of internal and external political events (including the new National Security Strategy signed by the President of the Russian Federation on July 2, 2021) again actualizes the question of the need to analyze the key changes that have occurred in the country during this period. How have the Russian society and the public administration system changed? What conceptual problems are still unresolved? And the most important: what role can the current trends in the development of the state and society play in the context of ensuring Russia's national security, taking into account the current situation in the domestic and foreign political arena by the middle of 2021? The following material reflects the authors' point of view on these issues. Based on expert assessments, data of official statistics, and Russian and regional sociological studies, the article analyzes the essence and prospects for the implementation of specific provisions of the National Security Strategy 2021. The authors come to the conclusion that the Strategy objectively reflects the current position of Russia in the domestic and foreign political arena by the middle of 2021, while its key points are aimed at a longterm perspective and are focused primarily on strengthening moral component of the Russian elites and Russian society. This causes positive feelings, but at the same time, based on the analysis of the previous experience in achieving strategic goals and objectives set out in the “May decrees” and national projects, it leaves conflicting expectations about the realism of their practical implementation.
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National security strategy 2015 - a step towards the new phase of Russia's development
Ред. заметка
December 31, 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the new National Security Strategy. Having analysed the key provisions of this document, we conclude that this event can be regarded as a new and historically significant step toward the strengthening of the Russian statehood and transition to a new stage of development. The National Security Strategy-2015 stipulates that “the implementation of the government policy of the Russian Federation in the sphere of national security is carried out through the concerted actions of all the elements of its system under the supervision of the President of the Russian Federation and with the coordinating role of the Security Council of the Russian Federation”. Thus, the President takes on personal responsibility for ensuring the implementation of priority directions of state policy in the sphere of national security, and this is not only a timely step, it also demonstrates Vladimir Putin’s ability to assume the historical role of leader when Russia experiences hard times.
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Статья научная
In the previous issues of our journal12 we have repeatedly addressed the problem of ineffectiveness of the Government’s implementation of the President’s instructions, which Vladimir Putin voiced in his Addresses to the Federal Assembly, in “May Decrees”, etc. In the 2018-2024 political cycle, the main directions of state policy are implemented through 12 national projects. The comprehensive analysis of expert opinions urges us to talk about the threat of disruption of their implementation once again. The following materials analyze the essence of national projects, the dynamics of their implementation, since their adoption (2005), during V. Putin’s third presidential term (2012-2018), as well as the specifics of the current socio-political situation in Russia in 2018-2019, which urgently requires a qualitative increase in the responsibility of the elites for the comprehensive achievement of the targets specified in the national projects for 2018-2024. 1 See, for example, editorials in the following issues of Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast: vol. 11, no. 2 (2018); vol. 10, no. 3 (2017); no. 2 (26) (2013); no. 6 (30) (2013); no. 3(21) (2012).
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Nationwide poverty - “a threat to steady development and our demographic future”
Статья научная
In our paper “Trends in Public Opinion Regarding the Effectiveness of Public Administration. Presidential Cycles 2000-2021” published in the previous issue of the journal (December 2021), we identified several critical internal and external challenges that accompany the process of establishing a new Russian statehood and strengthening Russia’s geopolitical role in the context of the global historical process - the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. We identified the problem of poverty as one of the main “sore spots”, citing expert opinions and official statistical data revealing its scale and the complex nature of its implications. In the present article, we continue this topic and analyze in detail the problem of poverty - its geopolitical significance, objective and subjective components, how the 1 dynamics of the standard of living and quality of life are perceived in various socio-demographic groups, as well as the key reasons that, in our opinion, explain why poverty has been an acute problem for Russia for more than a decade.
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Natural resource-based industries of the Far East :new drivers of development
Статья научная
The goal of the paper is to study the manifestations of institutional innovations currently being implemented within the framework of a new development model for the Far East economy in the region’s natural resource-based sectors; another goal is to study the areas of Russian-Chinese cooperation, which affect the current state and prospects of development of these industries. The study is based on the theories of resource-based economy, and spatial economy, including regional economy. The main scientific problem raised in the article is at the junction of the studies related to the evaluation of public policy efficiency, system effects of resource projects and their localization at the regional level under the influence of foreign economic factors. The novelty of the research consists in the fact that it formulates and implements the research task of joint consideration of institutional innovations and external factors determining the potential for the development of natural resource sectors in the Far East; thus, the research helps obtain new scientific knowledge in the field of spatial economics...
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Статья научная
Entrepreneurship is considered as a source of increasing economic competitiveness, emergence of innovations, creation of jobs, and realization of public goals. The article shows that the achievement of economic goals is associated not only with entrepreneurship, but also with its individual types (necessitybased and opportunity-based). The author pays attention to identifying the types of entrepreneurship (necessity-based and opportunity-based), determining socio-demographic features of population involved in these types, how representatives of the selected types of work perception, realize the accumulated potential, what type of earnings they prefer (stable, but low incomes / high incomes, but with no guarantees for the future). Information data of the research is data monitoring of the quality of labor potential of the Vologda Oblast population for 2020. In the course, the work identifies the groups of factors that affect the prevalence of these entrepreneurship types (in one case, it is macroeconomic stability, institutions, infrastructure, etc., in the other - for technological improvement, for higher education, vocational training, and efficient markets). The research reveals common features of necessity-based and opportunity-based entrepreneurs and their differences. The author proves that opportunity-based entrepreneurs perceive their activities to a greater extent from the position of focusing on earning respect and recognition, gaining new knowledge, and realizing their potential. They are more likely to rate their prospects for professional development, career growth and professional improvement higher than other groups of entrepreneurs. The practical significance of the study is to identify groups of opportunitybased and necessity-based entrepreneurs, characteristics peculiar to each of them, and to highlight their common and different features. In turn, the latter creates prerequisites for the authorities in terms of creating conditions for each of the groups of entrepreneurs, determining the most effective and successful incentives for activating their potential.
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Статья научная
The article addresses the issue of neural network forecasting of human capital size, structure, and dynamics. The object of the research is the socio-economic system. The subject of the study is the practice of applying neural network models to forecasting socio-economic indicators, human capital in particular. The purpose of this work is to apply neural network modeling and adapt its algorithms to build a forecast of the studied indicator for the future. The statistical base is data on demography, the investment volume in human capital of the regional economic system, as well as the indicators of socio-economic development. The investment volume in human capital is determined by budget and private citizens’ expenditures. To forecast the human capital dynamics the authors used the values of investment volumes the forecast of which, in turn, is built using a neural network modeling. The neural network model used in this study is a multi-layer fully connected perceptron with a sigmoid logistic activation function. Neural network modeling of forecast values of investment volumes has shown its effectiveness. Human capital assessment for the period of 2000-2018 and its forecast for the period of 2019-2023 are based on the example of the regional economic system of the Udmurt Republic. Our calculations show that the highest growth rate of the studied indicator has been demonstrated since 2013, and its further increase is predicted. The results obtained correlate qualitatively with the dynamics of changes in the Russian human development index, determined by the UN experts. The proposed method of calculating and forecasting human capital can be used to assess and compare the socio-economic situation of Russia’s regions.
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New basic principles of the state policy in an area of local self-government development in Russia
Статья научная
The purpose of the article is to highlight the most important economic, legal, and institutional foundations which are advised to be included in the new “Basic principles of national policy on local self-government development through to 2030”. It was concluded that it was a late decision to prepare a new version of the Principles which caused significant difficulties in the practical implementation of reforms in the municipal environment of the Russian Federation along with many gaps and numerous subsequent additions and amendments in Federal Law no. 131-FZ “On the general principles of the organization of local self-government in the Russian Federation”. Nowadays, update of the Principles is very important. It is related to five significant novations which make us reexamine aims and instruments of the state policy in the local self-government area. The first one is a global trend of management decentralization that noticeably strengthens the role of a local link of socio-economic systems. The second important novation is the relevance of a task to implement “federalization” of the government’s management of local self-government. The third novation is a necessity to naturally include local self-government in a unified vertical of strategic planning: its efficient functioning takes a crucial part in providing sustainability of the country, its regions, and municipal territories’ socio-economic development. The fourth demanded novation is expediency to secure a formula, or a principle, that would allow stopping an infinite series of reorganizations of Russian self-government together with various dividing and unifying processes in this sphere. Finally, the fifth novation is a necessity to finish the transformation of Russian local self-government from a low-level component of the administrative and command system into a socio-economic institution that naturally combines features of social authority and the beginning of a modern civil society and practically implements an institutional principle of “independent solution of local issues by people”.
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New breath of the “fourth estate”
Статья научная
In rapidly and chaotically developing globalization processes, which are observed in recent years, the media have become increasingly important as factors influencing social consciousness. This phenomenon is associated with the increasing complexity of social structures and psychological relations in the course of natural evolution of mankind, with the development of information technology as well as the tense international situation caused by the deployment of the so-called hybrid warfare. Impact of the media on public knowledge is particularly relevant for the Russian Federation because, first, the “subjective” factor has always been highly important (which was confirmed more than once by the course of historical events) in the mentality of Russian society, and second, Russia plays a major role in the hybrid warfare. The aim of this study is to identify and characterize the specific features of social perception and social well-being prevailing in the public mind under the influence the media...
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New check points of the region's foreign trade
Статья научная
The article considers the problems of the Russian regions’ foreign trade activity, which complicate qualitative transformations in the foreign commerce, are. In many respects these problems are caused by imperfection of the existing mechanism of state regulation. The necessity and the features of the foreign commerce’s regulation in a federative state are shown. The conceptual bases of the mechanism of the foreign commerce regulation at the regional level, which will promote a more full realization of the foreign commerce potential of a territory and transformation of the foreign commerce relations into the effective factor of the regional development, are formulated. The key directions of the foreign commerce policy of a region for the immediate prospects, which realization will allow diversifying export structure and expanding its geography, are proved. The means of regulating influence assisting to the activity’s coordination between the federal and the regional authorities, and to a region’s integration into the world economy’s space are argued. The opportunities of the mentioned means’ use in the Vologda Area are estimated.
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New technological shape of basic branches of RF industrial regions
Статья научная
The article emphasizes the increasing importance of industry in the economic development of both developing and developed countries. It highlights the decisive role of basic industries of the RF industrial regions in ensuring the level of their socio-economic development. The work substantiates the possibility to develop basic industries of some industrial regions as the ones that are knowledge-intensive, high-tech and can meet the requirements of new industrialization. The authors propose their understanding of new industrialization in terms of inclusive development. The article introduces a term “repositioning of the regional industrial complex” as a gradual process of interdependent technological, economic, social- institutional, environmental and organizational change based on innovation. It proves that this complex should be viewed as a network of competitive and structurally balanced productions, satisfying individualized needs of the high-tech sector in knowledge-intensive goods and services and increased quality needs of traditional industries...
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Non-formal institutional environment of social entrepreneurship
Статья научная
Social entrepreneurship as an alternative way to solve social problems is rapidly becoming popular. The efficiency of this type of activity largely depends on the formal institutions operating in the territory under consideration, as well as on the prevailing values, habits, customs peculiar to social groups which do not live on it and form an informal institutional environment. The purpose of the study is to simulate the impact of informal institutional environment on social entrepreneurship in the global space. The article analyzes the approaches to analysis of informal institutions; it is shown that this problem is raised in works of both foreign and domestic researchers. The Inglehart-Welzel concept of modernization, cultural change and democracy was used in analysis of informal institutional environment. The information framework of the research consists of international reports of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, the World Values Survey, the World Bank for 2015 in 30 countries...
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Non-state preschool education: current practices of territorial development
Статья научная
The paper is concerned with the problem of preschool education in Russia and the Vologda region. It shows that in the current context of shortage of places in state nurseries it is necessary to develop private care service providers. Day-care is in great demand among parents having children aged 1-3. The article analyses the main characteristics of preschool educational organizations. It shows that in the Vologda Oblast, particularly in Vologda, private demand for preschool education service is unsatisfied to a wide extent. In Vologda more than ten thousand children are on waiting lists for preschool educational organizations. In total, in the Vologda Oblast about 28.9 thousand children are in line for admitting to a kindergarten, 34% of them are registered in Vologda. The paper provides the results of the study into Vologda private nurseries and day-care carried out in May-June 2015 by method of involved observation. It reveals the key factors hampering growth of private nurseries...
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Noospheric economy as a planetary active economic sphere of civilization development
Статья
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Nowcasting migration using statistics of online queries
Статья научная
Due to international migration’s growing importance in modern countries’ lives, there is an increasing need for reliable and relevant forecasts of this process, especially in today’s turbulent world. However, established migration forecasting procedures suffer from a number of limitations, against which innovative approaches based on big data, notably online searches made by potential migrants, offer many advantages. Because of their novelty, such tools have not yet revealed their full explanatory and predictive properties. The work explores the possibility of using these tools to predict the population flows within the post-Soviet space. We hypothesize that there is a statistical relationship between online queries about migration to Russia made by residents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and subsequent human flows from these countries to Russia. The hypothesis was tested using the migration statistics of Rosstat, the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Google Trends data on search intensity, and Yandex Wordstat service of word matching for validation of search images. As a result of correlation and regression, we found a moderate dependence of the dynamics of human flows on previous queries, which is most evident at a lag of 6-9 months and at zero lag. Obtaining more accurate results in this and similar studies is hindered by the initial limited predictability of migration behavior due to its contextual, sometimes situational and irrational nature, as well as “noisiness” of statistics of queries and often the flows themselves. The search for universal algorithms of determination of relations between queries and migration flows is seen as the main direction of research in this field.
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Objectives and methods of analyzing energy efficiency in the economy
Статья научная
Energy saving and improving energy efficiency of production are among economic development priorities in Russia and its regions. Energy efficiency issues are given a lot of attention in scientific research on the interrelation of economic and power engineering development. In order to select the methodological tools for regional studies, we have reviewed scientific publications that analyze and evaluate energy efficiency in the economy. As a result of the review, we highlight the relevant research objectives: 1) to clarify the trends and factors leading to changes in energy efficiency of the objects under consideration;2) to compare the energy efficiency of similar objects, to determine the causes of differences and possible growth potential; 3) to identify the spatiotemporal properties of energy variables and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth. In accordance with these research objectives we summarize the approaches and methods of statistical analysis, evaluation, and econometric modeling used to address them...
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Статья научная
The main focus of the article is one of the most pressing issues to date: how a public administration system of socioeconomic development of Russian rural territories corresponding to modern realities can be created? The authors have analyzed the main challenges and trends in the transformation of the management object. The first important trend is the formation of an active mobile social group of dachniki (summer residents) breaking the stereotypes about the extinction of the Russian village by their desire to buy real estate in rural areas. And furthermore, they have a request for environmental friendliness and aesthetics of the place of residence. They are joined by enterprising businessmen who are trying to become the leaders of a new resurgent village. However, the unattractiveness of rural areas for business has been revealed due to the lack of access to the main factors of production. All this is happening against the background of outdated rural engineering and social infrastructure, which requires high maintenance costs. However, the world does not stand still and the transition of humanity from an industrial to an information society is characterized by a change in the technological basis, a creative person becomes the main productive force. Today, all spheres of human activity are being digitalized, accessibility borders are being erased, and the time factor is being eliminated. Thus, rural areas should be integrated into these global processes. This, accordingly, requires fundamentally new approaches to the transformation of the subject of management and control actions. The authors propose a new approach for rural areas’ sustainable development through a range of measures: introducing strategic planning and project approach, development of local and territorial public selfgovernment, development of the local mixed economy, cooperation development, introduction of modern technologies, removal of legislative restrictions, introduction of PSEDA (Priority Social and Economic Development Area) mode, effective public administration.
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