Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1659
Статья научная
The paper studies the relationship between the minimum wage and the subsistence level in the Russian economy. In particular, we analyze the degree of elaboration of the issue and reveal its aspects that are studied most extensively, less extensively and those aspects that remain debatable. We use a methodology of normative-positive analysis and reveal a causal relationship, according to which the subsistence level should determine the consumer basket and the minimum wage, respectively. However, as we note in our paper, in the current economic practice the specified relationship has the opposite direction as well. We consider the main trends in the change of the subsistence level, the consumption basket and the minimum wage at the level of the Russian economy and conclude that their nominal and legally established equality does not promote real simple reproduction of labor force in certain regions. Moreover, the data obtained in the course of empirical analysis show that there is a differentiation in the level of wages between the regions of one type of activity. Scientific novelty of our study consists in the fact that it considers the complete cycle of circulation of the commodity form of the simple labor force, including the receipt of the advanced minimum wage, the minimum disposable income, and the subsistence level. The data on Russia obtained during the analysis show that the minimum wage remains behind the real subsistence level; such a situation impedes the creation of conditions for the simple reproduction of labor force. The results we have obtained can be used to develop regulations at the federal and regional levels, to develop target programs to support rural areas and to study the correlation between the subsistence level and the minimum wage differentiated by sector, region and level of professional training of employees.
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Статья научная
The paper explores the development of bank lending to individuals in relation to Russian people's incomes. Using the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service, and with the help of EXCEL software, we carry out statistical analysis of the indicators characterizing people's satisfied demand for bank loans and compare them with the indicators of per capita income in 2010-2017, in the context of the federal districts of the Russian Federation, the city of Moscow, the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol (after 2014): we consider the volume of loans issued by banks during the year per inhabitant of the relevant territory, we calculate the correlation indicators of average per capita cash incomes and loans issued by banks per capita taking into account the purpose of lending; we estimate the distribution of the volume of loans issued per capita depending on the average per capita income. We find that the increase in per capita income is not accompanied by a proportional increase in bank loans per capita...
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Статья научная
The availability of qualified IT specialists is an important factor that contributes to the development of the digital economy. The need for personnel training for the IT industry is stated in the national project “Digital economy of the Russian Federation until 2024”. Educational organizations are an important source that supplies IT specialists for the economy. However, today there is an acute problem of inconsistency between the educational system and the labor market. The aim of the study is to identify problems of non-compliance of the level of IT personnel training with the requirements of employers, and to determine ways to address these problems (on the example of the Vologda Oblast). Using the data from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, we analyze the number of graduates in information technology-related fields in the Vologda Oblast. We also review educational programs at universities of the region and reveal problems in the formation of professional competencies in students. Based on the results of a survey conducted in 2020 by VolRC RAS, we have obtained information on the compliance of the level of competencies in graduates of IT specialties with the requirements of employers in the IT industry. In the final part of the article we highlight problems related to personnel training for the IT industry of the region and outline main ways to address them. Scientific novelty of our work consists in the application of a system-wide approach that help us study the viewpoints widespread in the education system and among employers, in order to identify problems related to the training of in-demand personnel for the IT industry. The materials of our study can be used by researchers, postgraduates and students who deal with the issues of digital economy development and those related to the staffing of this industry. Practical significance of our work lies in the fact that our proposals for solving the problems under consideration can be used by federal and regional authorities and management bodies, when it would be necessary to adjust plans for the implementation of national projects “Digital economy” and “Education”; our proposals should also be the basis for goal-setting and reflected in the tasks of other regulatory documents in the field of education at the federal and regional levels.
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Model of strategic managing the competitiveness of the integrated company
Статья научная
The author's interpretation of strategic managing the competitiveness of the mining company is offered, the theory-methodological bases of the model are developed, and application of the resource theory of strategic management, value-based management, and also the theory of real options are proved. The model of strategic evaluating and managing the competitiveness should be based on interest multiplicity of stakeholders which are carriers of financial, intellectual, social and natural capital.
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Modeling and forecasting public debt in South Africa
Статья научная
The principal interest of any developing country like South Africa is to preserve sustainable public debt. Recently, for developing economies there has been a growing concern regarding the importance of debt in setting the path for development and growth. The objective of this paper is to model and forecast total public debt in South Africa. Public debt in South Africa has grown substantially since the financial crisis in 2008 until now and it has not recovered. Debt is a crucial instrument for the small to medium economy such as South Africa and a vital source of fiscal policy. The study applied the ARIMA model to select the appropriate model to estimate and forecast public debt. As it is conventional for any time series modelling to assess the order of integration of the series used. The study employed the ADF unit root test to determine the order of integration and the results show that public debt variable is integrated of order one. The second step was to identify the best model to forecast public debt. In all the competing models the study identified that ARIMA13,1,1 was selected according to the coefficient significance and Akaike information criteria. The forecast shows that, there is an expected reduction in the stock of public debt in the future. It is therefore recommended by this study that fiscal policy makers should adopt a strong fiscal reform to keep the public debt to a minimum.
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Modeling complex financial sustainability of a corporation in the age of global economic crises
Статья научная
Currently, the socio-economic content of the concept of sustainable development in relation to enterprises and corporations is actually replaced by a system of managing financial risks of investment, the effect of which aims to prevent a financial crisis. Major financial strategies ceased to be functional; they acquired a role comparable to the corporate economic strategy, and began to control the establishment of criteria of risks and the feasibility of enterprise’s existence. The goal of the present research is to provide methodological support to the process of returning the priority of the financial concept of sustainable development from the sphere of financial growth (permanent capital growth) to the sphere of financial and economic development, by offering a new analytical tool of strategic level that does not contradict the interests of large businesses in its application. Taking into account the great contribution of transnational corporations to the initiation of global crises implemented with the help of stock market tools, the version of the financial-analytical method (visual modeling), which we present in the paper, reduces the dependence of corporate governance on the financial market assessment and directs risk management process in the field of real capital management of associations of enterprises...
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Modeling economic security risks for Russian regions in the context of sanctions pressure
Статья научная
The article investigates the problem of ensuring Russia's economic security in the conditions of increasing sanctions pressure. In order to assess and analyze emerging risks, we propose a multifactorial model that considers the economic security of Russian regions as a complex multidimensional system influenced by various interrelated risk factors. We use a list of indicators for monitoring and assessing Russia's economic security, approved by Presidential Decree 208, dated May 13, 2017. For the purpose of risk modeling, we establish two-level threshold values (“soft” and “hard”) of indicators based on expert assessment. The information base of the study includes data of the Federal State Statistics Service for Russia, as well as data in the context of constituent entities of the Ural Federal District by month for the period from January 2016 to March 2023. According to the calculation results, the aggravation of sanctions imposed by unfriendly countries has negatively affected the economic security of Russia as a whole and that of constituent entities of the Ural Federal District. Within the analyzed period, the risks created are significantly lower in comparison with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and they tend to decrease. Regional analysis shows that the most significant risk factor is the condition of agriculture, which has been significantly affected by the quarantine and sanctions restrictions imposed. Modeling economic security risks for Russian regions on the basis of the proposed approach in dynamics will help to promptly assess the current situation and put forward management recommendations in a timely manner, when economic security is compromised.
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Modeling of diversification of market as a basis for sustainable economic growth
Статья научная
The article considers the issue of dependence of key macroeconomic indicators on the energy supply price dynamics, especially oil price, relevant to the modern Russian economy. In order to overcome the negative trends related to oil price dynamics, the authors propose to consider the measures on the gradual diversification of the Russian economy as an effective tool of state regulation. To test the hypothesis that diversification contributes to the increase in sustainability of the national economic system, the authors review the simultaneous equations model, the endogenous variables of which include structural values which reflect the structure of national production system. The share of gross value added (hereinafter, GVA) generated in the i-th sector in the total GVA and the base GVA index generated in the i-th sector similar to the industry output index sequentially serve as endogenous variables in this study. The test of the hypothesis was carried out in two stages: at the first stage, according to the results of econometric modeling, the indicator of the real effective ruble exchange rate to foreign currencies was chosen as the main exogenous variable; at the second stage, the basic system of equations was evaluated...
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Modeling of equilibrium operation of economy in the north-west federal district
Статья научная
The article presents the results of economic equilibrium evaluating in the regions of North-west federal district from 2000 to 2008 made on the basis of the simple mathematical models reflecting the dynamics of consumers’ demand, labour supply and usage of the labour potential in the market operation of the regional economy.
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Modeling of innovation development in machine-building complex
Статья научная
Innovative level research of the Vologda region and its trades were realized at the article. It was displayed the strengths and weaknesses of outcomes the effectiveness of scientific-and-technological development of regional machinery, its recently meaning and trends. It was suggested multiple-factor innovative models, which furthers to growth the share of new and improved production manufactured by machine-building enterprises.
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Modeling renewable electricity production in Azerbaijan
Статья научная
Azerbaijan is an oil-rich country in the South Caucasus with great potential for developing the renewable energy sector, which currently accounts for only a small share of total energy production. Increased electricity generation from renewables can bring various economic and environmental benefits, such as greater energy security, sustainability and resource conservation, decentralized power generation, technological innovation, and climate change mitigation. Although there are a growing number of studies on Azerbaijan’s green energy or energy transition, the dynamics of its relatively longitudinal per capita renewable electricity generation have not been fully explored. Moreover, most studies ignore the role of technological change and profound institutional and policy variables in the energy transition. Our study fills this gap by applying dynamic ordinary least squares modeling (DOLS) on annual data to identify the key economic, institutional, and policy determinants in the period from 1990 to 2021. We reveal that economic variables such as oil prices, trade openness, CO2 emissions, accession to the Kyoto Protocol, and crisis periods were positively and statistically significantly associated with renewable electricity production in Azerbaijan. However, institutional quality variables (e.g., government effectiveness), GDP per capita, and primary energy consumption were negatively and statistically significantly associated with renewable electricity. Our findings hold the potential to furnish essential insights into enhancing renewable energy production across both short- and long-term horizons. Consequently, policymakers, decision-makers, and scholars stand to gain valuable insights from the outcomes of our research.
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Modeling socio-demographic asymmetry of territorial development
Статья научная
The article explores the issues of modeling socio-demographic asymmetry using spatial econometrics. Its relevance is associated with the growing disproportions of demographic dynamics in the regional space that undoubtedly requires scientific understanding and development of appropriate management decisions. The purpose of this study is to substantiate the methodological provisions for modeling the socio-demographic asymmetry of territorial development using a case-study of a specific region. Based on an analysis of domestic and foreign publications on the study of the territorial development asymmetry, including socio-demographic one, the author proposes a typology of methodological approaches and methods of its modeling and evaluation and substantiates the need to use spatial econometrics methods, the advantage of which is not only an opportunity to assess the presence of the asymmetry phenomenon, but also to determine the links between studied territorial entities and evaluate their mutual influence in the conditions of uneven development of regional space. The calculation of Moran’s global and local indices using a case study of the Sverdlovsk Oblast’s settlement system allowed us to obtain the following results: (1) the presence of socio-demographic asymmetry in the form of spatial autocorrelation of the population indicators of the region’s municipalities was confirmed; (2)a typology of municipalities is proposed according to their contribution to the formation of socio-demographic asymmetry, which allowed us to determine the points of agglomeration attraction, as well as to show the presence of direct and inverse spatial relationships between the region’s key territories; (3) the author substantiates the trend of increasing socio-demographic asymmetry in the region as a result of the increasing role of the Yekaterinburg agglomeration and the decline in the value of other two attraction points in the settlement system. The results obtained can be used by interested specialists to justify measures to regulate the socio-demographic and spatial development of the region by using positive and leveling negative effects of the socio-demographic asymmetry.
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Статья научная
Banking capital plays a significant role in providing the financial foundations for the development of institutional sectors in regional systems, which include financial and non-financial corporations, households, public administration sector and foreign institutions. However, a study of the processes of banking capital flows between them shows that the banking sector currently does not perform its traditional functions of saving institutional sectors’ capital and providing them with loans, but carries out a speculative policy, contributing to a significant outflow of financial resources abroad and causing serious harm to the Russian economy. In this regard, the purpose of the work is to study the imbalances in the processes of banking capital flows between institutional sectors and to model the impact of bank investments attracted by institutional sectors on the socio-economic development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. We have developed a methodological approach based on the methodology of forming balanced matrices of financial flows between institutional sectors using data from the primary accounting statements of loan institutions, the methodological principle of double entry bookkeeping of the System of National Accounts and methods of regression analysis using panel data. We built matrices of financial flows in the regions, characterizing the processes of bank capital flows between the sector of financial and non-financial corporations, public administration, households and foreign institutions, regression models characterizing the impact of bank investments attracted by each institutional sector on the indicators of socio-economic development of regional systems. The study has found that the capital raised by banks in the sector of non-financial corporations has a positive impact on the dynamics of the gross regional product of Russia’s constituent entities, leads to a decrease in unemployment in the regions, the number of people with incomes below the subsistence level, the degree of capital consumption, as well as an increase in the balanced financial performance of enterprises and the average monthly nominal wage.
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Modeling the impact of resource factors on agricultural output
Статья научная
The relevance of the research is justified by the need to find the sources of agricultural production growth due to the effective use of resource factors. The purpose of the work is to model the influence of the labor factor and the capital factor on the production of agricultural products. The research method consists in using the Cobb-Douglas production function to build a model of the influence of enlarged production factors on output. The novelty of the author's approach lies in using cost characteristics of labor and capital costs, which allows to obtain more reliable indicators of elasticity by presenting the resource costs in a single calculation. The data from international statistics presented in the development of the international research project World Input-Output Database (WIOD) is proposed to be use as indicators describing the costs of factors of production. Capital expenditure is characterized by the Capital compensation indicator; to estimate labor costs, it is more appropriate to use the Compensation of employees indicator, which reflects labor costs in the form of employees' total wages. Calculations of the production function for various time intervals allowed to estimate the elasticity of output of Russian agricultural production in terms of labor and capital costs in absolute and relative terms in retrospect. The author makes a conclusion about the priority influence of the labor factor on output in the agricultural sector, about the high labor intensity of agricultural production in Russia in the absolute measurement of labor costs. Based on the obtained parameters of the production function, using the data from Russian statistics, the researcher presents a three-variable forecast of gross agricultural production dynamics, depending on changes in labor productivity and capital return. The models built allow to make predictive assessments of the industry complexes development, and can also be used in the development and adjustment of the main directions of the state agricultural policy for the effective use of the resource potential.
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Статья научная
Digital platforms and the sharing economy contribute to a more efficient allocation of resources by releasing underutilized assets and reducing transaction costs; this opens up additional opportunities for socio-economic development. However, the rapid introduction of digital platforms and changing consumption patterns necessitate the adjustment and transformation of the current institutional environment. The aim of our study is to model the impact of the formal and informal institutional environment on the platform economy and the sharing economy in various countries. We apply theoretical analysis to show possible impact of formal and informal institutions on the development of digital platforms and the sharing economy; on this basis, four relevant hypotheses are formulated. In the study, we use data from the Digital Platform Economy Index 2020, Smart City Index 2021, WJP Rule of Law Index 2020, Social Capital Index 2020, Barometr Trust Index 2021 for 26 countries. With the help of a correlation and regression analysis, we construct linear models demonstrating the impact of the formal institutional environment on the development of the platform economy, as well as the influence of informal institutions on the services of the sharing economy. We prove that a low level of corruption and the transparency of public administration are major factors in the formal environment that affect this type of activity. The informal environment is characterized by the level of trust and social contacts in the country, expressed through social capital. The novelty of our findings consists in determining the nature of influence of the formal and informal institutional environment on the development of the sharing economy. The significance of the results lies in the possibility of using the identified patterns for the development of digital platforms and the sharing economy
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Modeling the interrelation between formation factors of labor demand and its supply
Статья научная
The remaining problem of the imbalance on the Russian labor market determines the relevance of studying labor demand and its supply. For this purpose, the objective of identifying the interrelation between the factors of demand and supply formation on the labor market, described using two sets (vectors) of indicators, was set and achieved. The study model also includes labor migration, informal employment, and labor activity of elderly population as factors of labor supply, which ensure that the labor shortage is filled, and the labor market is balanced. The statistical base of the study is 2006-2018 Rosstat data for Russian regions. The results of the study showed that, since 2014, there has been a growing trend in the interconnection between the factors of labor demand and its supply. In difficult macroeconomic conditions, the Russian labor market adapts not by freeing up the labor force, but by expanding labor relation practices (including underemployment of population) while maintaining a low unemployment. Economic decline has led to a reduction in the need for labor, which, on the background of a narrowing supply of labor resources caused by population ageing, has strengthened the balance between supply and demand on the labor market. The growth of partial and part-time employment has become a key process in reconciling the demand for labor and its supply. The inclusion of all factors, studied in this research, in the model allowed us to assess their impact on the balance of labor demand and supply. Employment of population aged 60-72 years was the most significant factor among all supply and demand indicators on the labor market, which indicates a high potential of ensuring their balance.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the work is due to the increased need to improve the efficiency of the state investment policy against the background of limited external sources for financing investment processes. The goal of the paper is to develop methodological tools for assessing the impact of changes in the volume of investments in fixed capital on the economic growth of the regions for the purpose of identifying the types of economic activities that have the greatest impact in terms of national economic development. The novelty of our approach consists in the fact that we integrate two tools for assessing investment effectiveness: the Cobb-Douglas production function, which is used to calculate the growth of gross output as a result of commissioning of fixed assets; and the balance model, which shows the movement of financial flows in the region (matrix of financial flows) and which is used to calculate direct and indirect economic effects arising from investment activities. We calculate and analyze sectoral production functions for four regions with different specialization and level of socio-economic development - the Sverdlovsk, Vologda, Chelyabinsk and Kurgan oblasts; we also calculate the marginal return on capital in 16 types of economic activity. We build matrices of financial flows for the regions under consideration for the year 2016, on the basis of which we calculate four groups of sectoral multipliers, reflecting the impact of the growth of gross output in individual industries on the aggregate growth of gross output (in the economy of the region as a whole), value added, household income and consolidated regional budget revenues. The paper shows that the cumulative effect manifested in growing GRP and tax revenues of the regional budget due to the growth of fixed capital, depending on the industry, may differ several times. Our study identifies statistical anomalies that indicate significant flaws in the data available; this fact prevents us from obtaining more accurate results. The approach we have developed and the results we have obtained can be used by the authorities to work out investment policy, taking into account the regional sectoral specifics of multiplicative economic effects.
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Modelling of economic systems with Petri nets
Статья научная
Modelling is one of the most important tools to study complex systems. Components of both continuous and discrete nature are present in the behavior of contemporary economic systems. The article uses formalism of nested hybrid Petri nets as a tool to study complex economic systems. The author describes basic approaches of simulation modelling, concepts of classical Petri nets, modified means of nested hybrid Petri nets, benefits of their use for systems modelling. The article presents the concept of a universal system of simulation modelling. On the basis of considered approaches the article proposes to develop a universal system of simulation modelling on the basis of the modified machine Petri nets.
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Modelling of food security in the region
Статья научная
The article considers indicators that can be used for evaluating the condition of food security in the region. Taking into consideration the approaches existing in scientific literature, the authors have substantiated optimal and critical values of the ratios of sufficiency of consumption and affordability of food. Statistical data on the Vologda Oblast have been processed and on this basis the economic-mathematical models have been built, which reflect the influence of various factors on food security. The authors have determined that the main factors include the per capita volume of import and domestic production of food, the level of intensity of agriculture and economic activity of population, and the proportion of residents with incomes below the subsistence level. Trend models have been composed for each of the factor variables; these models, with the help of extrapolation method, have been used for calculating forecast values and determining the parameters of the coefficients of sufficiency of consumption and economic affordability of food. The revealed relationships have helped identify key areas of regional policy that contribute to improvement of food security in the Vologda Oblast.
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Статья научная
Investigating models for adapting foreign economic activity of Russian companies to the sanctions pressure of unfriendly countries is relevant, since it is necessary to form approaches to obtaining data on trends and priority strategies for overcoming negative consequences in the current situation. The aim of the work is to assess trends in the use of models that help to adjust foreign economic activity of Russian companies to the sanctions pressure. Research methodology is based on economic analysis methods; application of foreign economic activity adaptation models is reflected using objective indicators that characterize the dynamics of revenue, net profit and investments of companies after the application of restrictions in connection with the economic sanctions of unfriendly countries. The research findings indicate that the inability to replace a large number of raw materials included in the value-added chain has maintained the level of demand for export goods and formed a high motivation for mediation in foreign economic transactions, which made it possible for Russian companies to implement an adaptive export switching model. Adaptation to import restrictions, based on differentiated high-value goods, is carried out bypassing sanctions by companies from unfriendly countries due to the lack of alternative sales markets. Despite the generally favorable position of Russian companies, about a third of enterprises were unable to successfully reorient product sales to new international destinations, which led to a reduction in revenue by the end of 2023. Also, about a third of the companies that showed revenue growth compared to 2021 experienced a reduction in financial performance, which indirectly indicates an increase in costs due to the use of the import switching model. Although the import figures show a pre-crisis level in general, the cost of imports has increased significantly, due to the complexity of logistics and the formation of a chain of intermediaries. Data on the use of the adaptation model of international cooperation show that large enterprises do not use this mechanism due to the risks of secondary sanctions for foreign partners. The findings contribute to the methodology for studying models of companies’ adaptation to sanctions pressure by forming methodological foundations for determining the directions to adjust foreign economic activity based on the current system of statistical observation. The developed methodological foundations, along with survey methods for obtaining information related to models for Russian companies’ adaptation to sanctions, can be used to monitor the identified issues and verify research on relevant topics.
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