Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Russian president got a constitutional majority in the State Duma of the seventh convocation
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Russian society in 2015: what we learned about IT from sociological polls
Статья научная
Modern socio-political history of Russia can be quite clearly divided into several important periods, each of which is characterized by particular political environment and specific social consciousness. The accession of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation in March 2014 is one of the landmark events, a milestone that marks the transition from one phase of this history to the next. This event (or rather, process that started, according to some estimates, in the autumn of 2013, or in February 2014) indicated a sharp turn in Russian foreign policy and in its relations with the West and East. The accession of Crimea has led to phenomenal growth and expansion of support for the policy pursued by Vladimir Putin and for his personality: without exaggeration, he has become not just a political leader but the leader of the nation. The trend set by the accession of Crimea was evolving in 2014-2015; a special feature of this development was that Russia obtained the positive effect almost immediately, and negative consequences followed only after a while...
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Russian specifics of dacha suburbanization process: case study of the Moscow region
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Topical issues related to the planning of urban agglomerations development include registration and analysis of changes in suburban areas in the process of socio-economic development. It is manifest, among other things, in urbanization, which in relation to larger cities is replaced by suburbanization. Suburbanization process has been developing to the greatest extent in North America and Western Europe. Scientific research confirms that the majority of large urban agglomerations are in the stage of suburbanization. The pace of suburbanization in the world is different - the authorities of individual countries, regions or cities often take measures to limit or simplify it: they reconstruct central cities, set limits to the construction in peripheral areas, etc. In Russia, the process of suburbanization started to develop rapidly only after the socio-economic transformation of the 1990s that led to the emergence of the free market of housing and land. The aim of the present work is to determine the specifics of suburbanization in Russia on the example of the Moscow Region...
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Russian statehood in the face of the “corruption of the elites” threat
Статья научная
The article is the final part of the series of publications “From the Editor-in-Chief”, published in 2020 in the journal “Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast”. Its central problem is the unsatisfactory quality of the ruling elites in Russia which, for almost the entire post-Soviet period, has been the main problem of stalling reforms and achievement of national development goals. The authors analyze the causes of this phenomenon; provide expert assessments and statistical data that allow us to assess the current state of the ruling elites in the country. The article examines the trends of public sentiment as an indicator of the negative consequences of the public administration inefficiency and the unrealization of social expectations from the government and from the President personally. We pay special attention to the content and results of the anti-corruption campaign initiated by the President of the Russian Federation in the mid-2010s. For this purpose, we analyze data of monthly reports of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation on the state of crime in the Russian Federation for the period from 2003 to October 2020, statistics of the Judicial Department at the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation on the state of criminal records in Russia for the period from 2012 to the first half of 2020, materials of mass media, and opinions of experts. The authors come to the conclusion that it is necessary to move from episodic, or “demonstrative”, criminal cases with a common motive being an internal political processes to systematic preventive work on the nationalization of the ruling elites. Its purpose is not to maintain a balance of interests within the elite groups but to solve the key tasks of national development: achieving social justice, reducing inequality, dynamic growth in the level of income and quality of life of the population. This approach mostly corresponds to the new socially oriented Constitution of 2020, and, ultimately, it allows hoping for the solution of many problems in the system of state administration, as well as for the development of Russian statehood in the civilizational and historical context.
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Статья научная
The COVID-19 pandemic has struck the tourism industry all over the world significantly reducing industry’s revenue and number of jobs. It has had a negative impact on the global economy. In Russia, the tourism sector was one of the most affected areas due to the quarantine restrictions that made the government take several supporting measures to mitigate the coronavirus effects and restore demand for tourist services. It actualizes the problem of assessing economic effects after stimulating consumption of tourism goods and services, as well as identifying and justifying the development directions of Russian tourism in un ntific novelty of the research is to determine, on the basis of inter-sectoral modeling, the effect for the Russian economy from the implementation of the program of subsidizing domestic tourist trips - so-called tourist cashback. The results of the study have identified the importance of stimulating population’s demand for recreation within the country for economy and have found the territorial disparity problem in the distribution of the increase in gross output caused by Russian tourist’s consumption growth. As for the research methodological base, the author uses general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, and tools based on input-output analysis methodology. Information base includes the works of domestic and foreign scientists dealing with tourism development problems in the post-crisis period, the assessment of its impact on economic parameters, as well as information from state statistics authorities, data from the World Bank, the World Tourism Organization, and the Russian Public Opinion Research Center. The prospects for future studies are related to designing regional tourism development areas that contribute to the increase in population’s consumption volume of tourist products and growing competitiveness of the latter.
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Russia’s payment system in the new geopolitical and economic conditions: problems and prospect
Статья научная
Taking into account an unprecedented number and quality of packages of external restrictive measures introduced against the financial and real sectors of the Russian economy, the mechanism for ensuring sustainable development of the national economy obviously needs comprehensive adjustment, from the point of view of updating priorities, and from the standpoint of monitoring the level of compliance and adaptation to the emerging challenges. Among the most sensitive restrictions, as envisioned by their initiators, are measures against the Russian financial sector, primarily the payment system and infrastructure. The article presents the results of analyzing the effectiveness of the national payment system in modern conditions. We highlight emerging trends in the activities of payment agents and payment system operators and substantiate promising directions for the development of the national payment infrastructure. The aim of the study is to determine the degree of influence of current challenges and threats on the efficiency and effectiveness of the national payment system. The novelty of the research is associated with the influence of unique external conditions that affect the functioning of the object of research. The set of indicators proposed in the work to assess the effectiveness of the national payment system allows for the system-wide integration of the most important aspects of the changes taking place in the infrastructure of payment systems. The results of the analysis confirm the need for the Bank of Russia to take and implement preventive decisions and introduce infrastructural changes to the operation of the national payment system in the context of escalating external restrictions. The conclusions of the study contain specific measures aimed at improving approaches to determining the effectiveness of the national payment system operators. Our key recommendation is to increase attention to the issues of priority development of payment turnover based on the implementation of innovation technologies and products, comprehensive infrastructure renovation, countering risks and threats in the policy of the Bank of Russia.
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Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet time: economic strategies and development
Статья научная
This paper studies the main features and results of economic development of Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet period. The purpose was to determine the extent of influence of urban development on the results of development of Saint Petersburg during this period. The method used in this study consists in the processing of a large array of statistical and analytical materials and regulatory framework; determination of the mutual relationship between the achieved results and the implementation of the program-planning documents that define the objectives, priorities and tasks of socio-economic development of Saint Petersburg. In the course of work the authors have highlighted seven key stages in the development of the city’s economy for the past 22 years, and six stages of development of the socio-economic planning system. The research into the specifics of Saint Petersburg economy within these stages shows that external conditionshave a decisive influence on the results of its economic development...
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Sales markets for the goods of the regions of the northwest of Russia: quantitative assessment
Статья научная
Promoting the spatial factor in the development of the national economy requires the implementation of state policy on the transformation of interregional value chains. This task is specific due to the vast spaces and the high degree of polarization of the country’s economic sphere. The purpose of the study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of the sales markets of regions within the Northwest of Russia, taking into account the industry and territorial specifics of their production. The analysis reveals that, in general, in the Northwest of Russia, national and foreign markets prevail over local and macroregional, and interterritorial interaction remains largely fragmented. However, the presence of specialization industries in the regions, combined with relatively stable external demand, can contribute to the development of interregional value chains. It is noted that in Russia, the tasks of optimal zoning and development of value chains are of crucial importance, and it is reflected in the program documents. It is shown that the macroregion uses the potential of internal cooperation only to a small extent, being to a greater extent an array of multidirectionally oriented market zones with Saint Petersburg as its core and a number of value chains, often export-oriented. It is concluded that the nature of supplies to foreign markets is determined not only by the export specialization of the territory, but also by the diversification of the economic system. The findings of our research can be used to develop strategic documents for spatial development, programs for the development of economic sectors and industrial clusters. In the future, we will continue the work on searching for new growth points and the most promising areas of structural changes for the transition of regions and the country as a whole to sustainable socio-economic development.
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Satisfaction with the work-life balance: working women's view (regional aspect)
Статья научная
One of the employee’s objective needs is an appropriate balance between work and private life. The article presents a comparative study of satisfaction with the work-life balance among working women with and without children. Based on the materials of a questionnaire survey of the Vologda Oblast workingage population, conducted in 2018, we investigate the features of perception of the following aspects of work and family life: satisfaction with the ability to combine work and family responsibilities, the impact of work on various aspects of daily life, the ability to organize recreation, the presence of problems related to one’s close environment, qualitative characteristics of work. We have revealed that working women with and without children have predominant positive or neutral impact of work on daily life, and there are no significant differences in the number of working days per month and the actual length of the working day. We have found that women without children often perform extra work, are less able to organize their leisure time, and are harsher in relation to their close environment. However, there are no significant differences in satisfaction with the work-life balance among women with and without children. The paper determines that working women (regardless of parental status) who satisfactorily assess the ability to combine work and family responsibilities are characterized by better indicators of labor activity (fewer delays and disruptions in work, less failure to fulfill plans, etc.), a higher level of realization of physical, personal and professional abilities in work. The similarity of the subjective perception of the work-life balance among working women with and without children may indicate women’s high adaptability to multitasking and time allocation. We highlight the importance of improving the policy on family and employment, in particular in terms of developing flexible employment formats.
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Scenario development forecast of the region under the conditions of economic instability
Статья научная
The problem of the reliable prognoses of economical development is mainframe for making up any strategic document. No methodology can guarantee clear indexes of the long-rang dynamics. Under such circumstances the proper way out can be creating of the alternative scenarios, characterizing the threshold possibilities of the event development. Such point of view is especially relevant under the circumstances of the economic instability.
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Статья научная
In a deteriorating geopolitical situation and under the pressure of sanctions on the Russian economy, its manufacturing enterprises are facing significant restrictions in the import of high-tech equipment and materials necessary for technical re-equipment and modernization of the fixed assets they use. These restrictions contribute to increasing the degree of their deterioration and will do so in the future as well. The hypothesis of our study consists in the assumption that the dynamics of fixed assets depreciation at enterprises is influenced not only by the volume of attracted investments, but also by other factors, and that the degree of their impact in different groups of regions is differentiated. The aim of the work is to design forecast scenarios that would show the changes in the degree of fixed assets depreciation at manufacturing enterprises, taking into account the differentiated influence of factors. The study presents a methodological approach based on statistical and regression analysis using panel data and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to identify factors affecting the dynamics of fixed assets depreciation at manufacturing enterprises in various regions and design a system of forecast scenarios for its changes in the future. We group the regions according to the degree of depreciation of fixed assets of manufacturing enterprises (we identify groups of regions with an extremely high level of fixed assets depreciation, and the levels above and below the Russian average). Using regression models we identify the differentiated influence of factors on the dynamics of fixed assets depreciation: in the first and third groups of regions, the key factor in increasing depreciation is the difficult financial situation of enterprises; in the second group - insufficient volume of attracted investments in fixed assets. For each group of regions, autoregressive modeling of the dynamics of these factors is carried out using a moving average to form the most likely forecast scenarios for changes in the degree of fixed assets depreciation at manufacturing enterprises until 2024. As a result of forecasting, we identify regions with the most likely dynamics of further increase in the degree of depreciation of fixed assets of enterprises; these regions should become a priority in obtaining state support for the implementation of industrial policy in Russia.
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Scenario modeling and forecasting of the spatial heterogeneity of innovation development in Russia
Статья научная
Uneven spatial innovation development of Russia is due to many factors such as GRP volume, fiscal capacity of territories, fixed capital investments attracted by enterprises. However, the key factors determining the concentration of innovation industries in territorial systems of various levels are enterprises’ expenditure on innovation activity and the available scientific personnel potential. The increasing spatial heterogeneity of localization and concentration of these resources, according to our research hypothesis, enhances the spatial heterogeneity of innovation development in Russia. To confirm this hypothesis, we aim to assess the spatial heterogeneity of enterprises’ innovation development at the national level and carry out scenario modeling and forecasting of the dynamics of this heterogeneity until 2025. The paper presents a methodological approach to scenario forecasting of the spatial heterogeneity of innovation development of Russia. In the framework of the approach, the heterogeneity is assessed using spatial autocorrelation analysis according to P. Moran’s method, regression analysis of the dependence of the volume of shipped innovation goods and services performed on the costs of innovation activities carried out by enterprises, and the number of research personnel in the regions, as well as autoregressive analysis of the dynamics of their changes using a moving average (ARIMA modeling) to form the most likely forecast scenarios of innovation development for different groups of regions. The novelty of the approach lies in the system-wide use of spatial autocorrelation analysis methods based on various spatial weight matrices, regression analysis methods based on panel data and ARIMA modeling, which in combination with each other make it possible to determine the degree of influence of the factors on the heterogeneity of innovation development in regions and to form a system of various forecast scenarios. The results of the study will serve as the basis for the formation of Russia’s innovation framework. The constructed forecast scenarios will help to form strategies for innovation development in Russian regions, taking into account the identified features of the spatial localization of factors that have a significant impact on innovation development.
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Scenario modeling of tourism services consumption in Russia
Статья научная
Given the unstable geopolitical situation associated with the impact of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries, it is extremely important for Russia to ensure its own steady development pace. Saturating the domestic market with Russian-made high-quality goods and services, and promoting consumption that has declined because people significantly reduced spending due to rising prices, are becoming relevant goals. The task of stimulating domestic consumer demand determines the framework of development of the Russian economy in the near future. To address the issue, Russia possesses a great potential for the formation of new growth points. One of them is tourism, whose high multiplicative effect allows us to consider it as an economic driver. The main priorities for the development of the Russian tourism industry by 2030 are reflected in the national project “Tourism and the hospitality industry”. In the context of economic uncertainty, there is an increasing need to improve the quality of management decisions in the tourism sector. In this regard, the purpose of the work is to develop forecasting tools for scenario modeling and assessment of economic effects obtained due to changes in the volume of domestic tourist consumption. Scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of input-output modeling methodology to determine the economic effects provided by the growth of demand for domestic tourism services. The results of the study have shown that active development of tourism under the optimistic scenario will provide an almost twofold increase in the volume of gross output annually in comparison with the existing rates of tourist services consumption. We use general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, and tools based on input-output methodology. The information base includes the works of domestic and foreign scientists involved in stimulating domestic tourist consumption, scenario modeling and forecasting of the economy, as well as information from state statistics bodies and World Bank data.
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Scenario-based approach to modeling bankruptcy risks for enterprises in various industries
Статья научная
The deterioration of the financial situation of enterprises in various industries, which is currently observed in many regions, creates prospects for reducing their financial stability and the emergence of bankruptcy risks. It is necessary to develop existing methodological approaches so as to assess and forecast the risks of bankruptcy for industries as a whole, rather than for individual enterprises, and form effective state support mechanisms for them. The main goal of our research is to develop these approaches. The novelty of the presented approach consists in the following facts: we develop an algorithm for scenario modeling and forecasting the risks of bankruptcy for industries, including an assessment of the financial stability of the industries under consideration and the probability of bankruptcy; we design regression models showing the dependence of change in the probability of bankruptcy on a whole system of internal and external factors; we conduct autoregressive modeling of the dynamics of internal and external factors using a moving average (ARMA). Autoregressive modeling allows us to form the most probable, inertial forecast scenario for the next five years taking into account the preservation of the noted trends and the corridor of maximum possible values. The forecast values of the dynamics of these factors and the constructed regression models serve as a basis for designing forecast scenarios for changes in the probability of bankruptcy of large, medium and small machine-building enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region. As a result, we reveal that major machine-building holdings of the Sverdlovsk Region that do not have sufficient working capital, have a low level of solvency, and experience a significant debt burden are most susceptible to bankruptcy risks. In order to increase financial stability and effective development of large machine-building enterprises, government support is required.
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Scenarios for the development of the sharing economy: digital technologies and value orientations
Статья научная
The expansion of the sharing economy is related both to the rapid technological and digital development and to the transformation of behavioral patterns based on the development of network relations and the search for new forms of cooperation. However, the scenarios for the spread of this economic system will differ from country to country due to the heterogeneity of socio-economic conditions. The aim of the study is to identify scenarios for the development of the sharing economy, taking into account technological and value characteristics of a territory. The methodology of this study includes correlation and regression analysis, systematization methods, descriptive statistics, and graphical method. The information base for the study is data from the Timbro Sharing Economy Index, the World Bank, and the World Values Survey. As part of the research, we formulated and tested hypotheses on the impact of digital development and values on the development of the sharing economy. We show that the key factors in the development of the sharing economy are the level of digital technology as well as postmaterialist values. In the course of the study we identify and describe clusters of countries distinguished by these parameters. We formulate and describe scenarios for the development of the sharing economy. We reveal that these scenarios differ not only in the level of development of digital technologies and the readiness of citizens to use services of the sharing economy, but also in the scale of the territory to which the principle of collaborative consumption applies. Theoretical significance of the obtained results consists in modeling the development of the sharing economy and forecasting possible directions of its development. Practical significance is the application of these scenarios in the formation of urban infrastructure or the design of smart cities.
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Scenarios of ecological modernization of mining corporations on the basis of innovation
Статья научная
The article considers the objective and subjective reasons interfering with the innovative modernization of the mining and mining and smelting companies on the basis of the analysis of the external and internal environment of the Russian mining corporations, during the post crisis period. On the basis of theoretical notions about the economic category of “modernization” and the analysis of ecological corporate policy of the mining companies, the scenarios of ecological modernization of the basic manufacture and main funds of nature protection appointment and the condition of their implementation taking into account the specificity of mining manufacture are proved.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the article consists in the fact that taking into account modern global economic changes and the specialization of the Russian economy, it (the economy) is searching for ways to integrate optimally into the international division of labor; at the same time, cooperation with China becomes important. The main idea and goal of the study is to conduct a comparative analysis of science and technology development in Russia and China and to identify prospects for their cooperation in the modern world economy. Scientific novelty of the work consists in the fact that it analyzes the state of international cooperation in science and technology, and this analysis takes into account the overall situation in trade and economic cooperation, and manifestations of science and technology cooperation in trade; besides, the analysis takes into account science and technology cooperation factors such as the place of countries in the global innovative development, the presence of similar national priorities of science and technology development, and similar types of policy documents...
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Scientific and technological development of Russia: state assessment and financing problems
Статья научная
Given the current conditions of rapid cyclical economic processes, the urgency of tasks related to ensuring sustainable economic growth is increasing. The available experience clearly indicates that sustainability can only be achieved by ensuring the proper level and pace of scientific and technological development. At the same time, the implementation of spatial development concept is entering into the foreground due to globalization, integration and digital technologies development. The purpose of the work is to assess the scientific and technological development of Russia in the context of international comparisons and to study the system of R&D financing in the country. Based on this purpose, the article considers the evolution of approaches to the scientific and technological development of territories, identifies the need to form a single scientific and technological space in Russia, which will reduce the existing imbalances and ensure the uniformity of regional development; substantiates the significance of the financial subsystem in the formation of a single space; analyzes its state. The conducted analysis has shown that the current system of research and development financing in Russia is contrary to the global trends. The research has revealed that a crucial role in the process of funding is still played by the state; it has demonstrated the low efficiency of the system of R&D financing and offered recommendations for its improving and optimizing, i.e. the formation of regional funds for scientific, scientific-technical and innovation activities; increasing the availability of federal funding sources of scientific and technological development in the regions and the efficiency of venture activity in Russia. Further stages of the research will involve studying other basic subsystems of the scientific and technological space (organizational, managerial, informational, educational, etc.), as well as working out practical recommendations for their development, efficiency and harmonious interaction and functioning.
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Статья научная
In modern developed countries, an active search for new sources of growth has begun. One of them is the scientific and technological potential (STP), implemented through new informational, digital, and industrial technologies. Its development leads to the formation of a new technological structure and the acceleration of labor productivity growth. STP accounts for up to 90% of the total contribution of all factors to the growth of these countries' gross domestic product. The formation of a new order is a modern global trend, which is important to follow in order to maintain the economy's competitiveness. The orientation of the Russian economy toward the export of energy resources poses threats to the economic and technological security of the national economy. Thus, within fundamental technological and structural changes of the world economic system, the task of Russia's transition to a new technological order becomes particularly relevant. Important areas of its solution are the creation of qualitatively new production relations, a favorable regulatory environment and its alignment with the requirements of the new technological order, the formation of appropriate informational and material equipment for the implementation of new technologies and activities. The purpose of this article is to analyze the scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation in the process of transition to the new technological order. The article summarizes the theoretical foundations of the essence of technological changes in the economy in the process of the transition to the new technological order; it studies domestic and foreign experience of implementing national plans and strategies in the sphere of scientific, technical, and innovative development; it analyzes the status and trends of the scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation according to key indicators of a new technological revolution; it reveals issues of the economic development in the process of the transition to the new technological order; it develops a set of measures for the activization of processes of the scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation in a new environment.
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