Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1709
Reflections on the concept “crisis”
Статья научная
In the preface to the book “The Crisis of Our Age” its author Pitirim Aleksandrovich Sorokin argues that “every important aspect of the life, organization and the culture of Western society is in extraordinary crisis”. And he continues his words of prophecy: “Its body and mind are sick and there is hardly a spot on its body which is not sore” [Sorokin, 1948 (1942): 7]. Sorokin, of course, was not the only one who perceived their modernity as being in a crisis. T.G. Masaryk wrote about many aspects of the “crisis” of his time in the late 19th century. Georg Simmel studied the crisis of culture in the beginning of the 20th century [Simmel, 1983]; Sigmund Freud warned about the dangerous potential of human destructiveness, Oswald Spengler announced the “decline of the West” [Spengler, 2011], and Joseph Alois Schumpeter argued that cyclical manifestations of economic crises1 relate to the economy like heartbeat to a living organism. While Adolf Hitler was consolidating his power, Edmund Husserl [Husserl, 1972] lectured on “the crisis of the European Sciences”, and Georges Friedmann spoke about the “crisis of progress” [Friedmann, 1937]...
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Статья научная
Dear reader!You are looking at the 50th issue of the journal “Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast”, the leading periodical of RAS Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories.In cooperation with the Department of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, regional government and Vologda City Administration, ISEDT RAS promotes academic scientific knowledge in the Vologda Oblast for over 25 years. Throughout its development the Institute has always focused on deep historical traditions of domestic and world science and, simultaneously, on innovation trends emerging in accordance with the needs of socio-economic and socio-political life. The system built in a quarter of a century was formed exclusively for one purpose - to create a cell of self-developing fundamental scientific knowledge in the Vologda Oblast.The history of the journal “Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast” largely reflects the development of ISEDT RAS itself and the Department of Social Sciences...
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Reforming individual income tax is the crucial factor in stabilizing the budgetary system
Статья научная
The reason for writing this article was a statement of the First Deputy Finance Minister Tatyana Nesterenko who claimed that in 2017 the government would run out of money to pay salaries to budgetary sphere employees [3]. Indeed, the reserves accumulated in the fat years are running out1. The Government of the Russian Federation finds the following sources to cover the growing budget deficit: first, privatization of the remnants of state property, which will create a momentary effect and will not become a stable channel for filling the treasury; and second, major cuts on spending that on the eve of the electoral cycle can aggravate protest moods of Russians caused by a sharp deterioration of the standard of living. The majority of representatives of the expert and scientific community, including ISEDT RAS employees, consider the urgent need to reform the system for taxation of individual income tax by introducing a progressive tax scale as one of the main solutions to the growing imbalance of the budgetary system...
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Region management in terms of sustainable development
Статья научная
The article considers the approach towards the improvement of the management of regional development, which is based on determining the character and direction of the influence of a number of factors on regional development by applying the method of principal components. The approbation of the suggested approach to the statistical data of Russian regions for 2000-2010 in terms of the region's major subsystems indicated the absence of progressive development tendencies, as well as made it possible to determine the character and the direction of the influence of the investigated factors, which in the regional management practice permit taking the regions to the sustainable development pathway, to be determined.
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Region's agrarian and industrial complex: lessons of reforming and conclusions for prospect
Статья научная
The article considers the consequences of reforming of economy of agrarian sector and social sphere of rural territories of the Vologda region for last 20 years. The author has analyzed the tendencies of formation of multi-structural agriculture in region. On the basis of integrated index the region’s municipal formations are differentiated by the level of agrarian potential. Taking into account the lessons of market reforms, domestic and foreign experience the author brings out the ways to overcome negative consequences of transformation processes in agrarian sector for the near-term and medium-term prospect.
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Статья научная
The paper estimates the dynamic investment function on the basis of the flexible accelerator model according to the data for 2000-2016 for the Far Eastern Federal District and its constituent entities. In general, the dynamics of investment in the Far Eastern Federal District are significantly influenced by the change in expected demand with an average investment accelerator value of 1.78. Having assessed the partial adjustment parameter, we see that on average per year, investments cover 40% of the difference between the actual and desired capital stock in the Far East, and the parameter increases over time. This indicates that the gap between the desired and actual capital stock in the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District increased during the study period due to the growth in demand. This gap is larger for the resource-based regions like the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Sakhalin Oblast; it is due to a higher level of expected output driven by high external demand...
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Regional budget for 2013 - 2015: stability or survival?
Статья научная
The next three-year budget has been enacted in the Vologda Oblast. According to the Senior Executive Vice-Governor of the Vologda Oblast A.A. Travnikov, the discussion of the main financial region’s law has been “the hardest over recent years because it is too difficult to drop down, especially after a long period of sustainable growth”1. For the first time, the regional budget has not been adopted in the first reading because it has left out of account the resources due to acute debt burden, which are necessary for eliminating the crisis disproportions, making the conditions for economic growth and dealing with the vitally important tasks of growth in the population’s prosperity defined by the President of the Russian Federation in his election programmes. Meanwhile, clear and strict implementation of these tasks is not only a matter of authorities’ prestige, but also social and political stability. According to the basic parameters of the budget, the situation in the budgetary sphere will not improve in the short term...
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Regional budget for 2015-2017: doing away with deficit or doing away with development?
Статья научная
Regional budget in the Vologda Oblast for 2015-2017 was formed under difficult socio-economic conditions caused not only by a longstanding dependence of Russia’s economy and its budget system on the external economic environment, but also by a number of new factors associated with the aggravation of geopolitical tensions and the application of sectoral sanctions by Western countries. Despite an uncertainty in economic development trends, the new budget is announced to be deficit-free. It would seem that the balance of revenues and expenditures, a fundamental principle of the budget system, has been achieved. However, an analysis of the expenditure part of the budget shows that the balance is achieved at the expense of introducing the austerity regime followed by the restriction of all directions of funding. For 2015-2017 the share of the regional budget expenditures in GRP will decrease to 9.8% vs.13.6% in 2014. If macroeconomic dynamics maintains its downward trend, such fiscal policy in the long term will suppress the economy even more significantly and will ultimately lead to the taxable capacity reduction...
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Regional budget for 2017-2019: surplus or economic growth?
Статья научная
At the end of 2016, the Vologda Oblast approved its budget for 2017-2019. At first glance, its parameters are quite optimistic if we recall that from 2009 to 2015 the budget was significantly unbalanced. The planned annual surplus of 2.5 billion rubles is planned in the upcoming budget cycle. The budget surplus exceeding this sum was registered only in 2004. These projections are not based on the expected sustained economic growth, but on the terms of agreements with the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation on the allocation of financial assistance to the oblast in the form of budget loans. The forecast of socio-economic development elaborated by the Vologda Oblast Government retains low growth rates of all macroeconomic indicators; due to this fact it is unlikely that sufficient financial resources could be generated: the average annual growth rate of the budget's own revenues will not reach even 4%. The positive balance of the treasury is expected to be reached with the help of fiscal consolidation: the amount of government spending as a share of gross regional product will decrease to 9% to 2020 against 13% on average over the period of 2005-2016...
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Regional budget of 2012 - 2014: stability is delayed
Статья научная
The article presents the new results of ongoing research carried out in ISEDT RAS on regional budgeting of the Vologda Oblast in the medium term1. Judging by the main budget parameters, the situation in the budget sphere will become aggravated in foreseeable future. According to forecasts, the deterioration of financial conditions of metal manufacture, the basic industry in the region, will not allow the regional budget to restore its pre-crisis level of revenues in 2012. They will be below the level of 2011. The reduction of federal financial support creates additional dangers for the regional budget burdened with debts. The public debt of the Vologda Oblast, which has reached a critical level, increases the risk of providing the investment with financial resources, which are necessary to modernize the regional economy. However, despite this dramatic situation, there are the reserves to ensure social security in the region.
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Regional budget-2016: priorities do not change
Статья научная
The budgets of all levels of the Russian Federation for 2016 were drawn up in conditions of the systemic social and economic crisis in the country, the worsened foreign situation, connected with the instability of commodity markets and the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions. These factors prompted the Russian Government to abandon the practice of three-year budget planning and return to a one-year budget. The results of the budget process show that the pressure on sub-federal budgets continues to grow. According to the ISEDT RAS calculations, 76 of the 85 regions had a deficit budget in 2015, in 60 regions the real income tax payments decreased and the debt burden exceeded 50% of their own revenues. Unfortunately, the Russian Government did not propose any measures to address the budget crisis of regions observed since 2012. On the contrary, the primacy of inter-budgetary cooperation was to shift social obligations from the state to the RF subjects and replace grant financial support of these commitments by budgetary loans...
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Regional competition for confidence: features of formation
Статья научная
The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels), and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today's environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories...
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Regional corruption in business
Статья научная
On the basis of sociological studies by monitoring the article discloses the corruption indicators in the business field under the conditions of the subsidized region. It is noted that under the conditions of bureaucratization of public relations the corruption becomes a specific social institution, within the framework of which the relationship between business and authority is formed. The business representatives’ view on the peculiarities of corruption spread in the Arkhangelsk region is under review.
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Статья научная
As an attempt to extract positive experience to overcome difficulties of an extraordinary nature, we tried to appeal to historic examples of active participation of science in solving problems of regional development due to the general national tasks. The paper deals with the experience of the Commission for Study of Natural Productive Forces under the Head of the Republic of Komi (1993-2004), which is of scientific interest regarding the use of the results of research works of strategic planning and project management, taking into account the extraordinary circumstances caused by the sharp transformation of Russia’s economic structure. The article shows that it happens in a more constructive way when researchers and practitioners are united organizationally within the framework of the “problem - program” methodology. The second line of analysis of such experience is to identify the correspondence between the scientific interpretation ofthe concept of“productive forces” and the content ofstate strategic planning documents. To return productive forces to the system “science - practice”, it is necessary to eliminate the substitution of this concept by resources and production and to select appropriate indicators of their measurement. The main subject of this dimension becomes “force”, which is presented as the force and result of natural processes, scientific and technological progress and new forms of production organization.
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the issue of housing affordability on the Russian market. Based on official statistics, the authors reveal the main trends of the regional housing market development. The article reviews government priorities in the housing policy and presents calculations of the housing affordability index in the Vologda Oblast according to several scenarios. The authors present the results of the ISEDT RAS population survey conducted in the Vologda Oblast concerning the level of people's satisfaction with their housing conditions. The results indicate that only 37% of the population are satisfied with their housing, 13% - rated their living conditions as bad. The authors research best practices of a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in order to address the shortage, quality and affordability of housing. Numerous studies by Russian scientists indicate the necessity of forming and introducing new tools and mechanisms to improve housing affordability in the Russian practice...
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Regional innovation system construction and deepening reformation
Статья научная
The article considers the stages of formation of innovation systems in China’s regions. It presents the current condition of these systems and the specifics of their present and future development. The topical issues concerning the improvement of innovation development management at the regional level are highlighted.
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Статья научная
The importance of studying policy-making issues related to anti-sanctions legislation and practical measures to support the population and business at the level of Russia’s Arctic regions in the context of sanctions pressure is associated with the major role of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, which has geopolitical, strategic and socio-economic significance. The article provides a brief overview of the history of sanctions pressure and response measures based on a comparative analysis of foreign and Russian studies; we also conduct a content analysis of the anti-sanctions legislation in the Russian Arctic regions for 2022-2023 and current regional measures to support businesses and population to ensure socio-economic stability. Among the Arctic regions, the Komi and Sakha (Yakutia) republics are leaders in terms of the number of regulatory legal acts and the number of regional anti-sanctions measures, while the Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous areas are outsiders. The Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Yamal- Nenets Autonomous Area, the Republic of Karelia, the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions are Arctic territories that conduct quite moderate activities fulfilling the requirements of Presidential Decree 121, dated March 16, 2022. In this regard, it is necessary to continue to improve and update anti-sanctions legislation and anti-sanctions measures at the regional level in order to adjust the socio-economic sphere properly. It is necessary to study certain areas of regional support, for example taxation issues, more thoroughly. It is recommended that the authorities of the Arctic regions pay attention to regional taxes, which can play an important role in ensuring socio-economic stability. The content analysis also shows that there is no uniformity in policy-making activities at the level of the Russian Arctic regions, and a multidirectional practice of using state support measures to ensure socio-economic stability in the face of sanctions pressure is applied. Currently, it is necessary to streamline and balance the anti-sanctions legislation and measures it envisages at the level of the Russian Arctic regions.
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Статья научная
After the adoption of the Strategy for Spatial Development of the Russian Federation until 2025 in February 2019, special importance was attached to the issues concerning the formation of the coherent system of the RF entity’s regional policy on the development of municipalities, which takes into account socio-economic and geographical features of different territories. In this regard, the goal of this article is to develop methodological tools for efficiency assessment and for analyzing the specifics of interregional policy in the RF entity (on the materials of the Vologda Oblast). Scientific novelty of the research consists, first, in the fact that it uses expert opinions, which were obtained during a questionnaire survey of the Vologda Oblast municipalities heads, and second, in the analysis based on our own criteria of spatial (territorial) aspects reflection in strategies for development of constituent entities within the Northwestern Federal District. The research uses methods such as analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, methodological tools based on economic and statistical, comparative analysis, and expert survey. We reveal that, despite the efforts of state authorities of the Vologda Oblast to develop municipalities, the number of problems, concerning interregional policy implementation, still exist. They are: insufficient consideration of specifics and features of certain municipalities’ development; bureaucratic obstacles in the cooperation between state and local authorities; limited powers of local authorities, etc. The results of the conducted research might be used in the activities of state authorities of the Russian Federation entities. Also, the research might serve as the foundation for further scientific studies on the ways to improve the forms, methods, and tools of the interregional policy implementation.
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Regional public debt: trends and formation specifics
Статья научная
The paper shows that current problems in the Russian economy are largely internal; external factors only multiply them. A significant reason for the emergence of regional public debt in modern Russia lies in the instability of the main types of budget revenues amid growing expenditure obligations. Their growth was significantly dominated by the directives of the federal center, including the first and second editions of the President’s May Decrees, which are, as a rule, only partially supported with transfers from the federal budget or not supported with them at all. At the same time, the structure of regional budgets has been experiencing a continuous increase in the share of mandatory social expenditures and a continuous decrease in the share of capital investments. We show that in these conditions constituent entities of Russia borrow funds to address social issues rather than to stimulate regional investment development. The “residual” principle of financing the social sphere is replaced by the “residual” principle of financing the regional economic sphere of production development and regional infrastructure. It is empirically established that the investment activity of regional authorities involves intensification of debt activity. Having compared the volume and dynamics of debt obligations of Russia’s constituent entities with the provision of expenditures with budget revenues we see that the rapid growth of debt obligations of the authorities of Russia’s constituent entities and the increase in the debt burden on sub-federal budgets pose an actual threat to the stability of territorial budget systems and economic security of regions and the state. We show that territorial convergence of regional public debt in the context of federal districts hides the territorial divergence of regional debt that has increased under the load of obligations to implement the May Decrees and under the lingering and extremely high differentiation of regional budget revenues.
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