Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1640
Russia's defense industry modernization: learning from history
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the issue of the defense industry complex modernization as a key direction in the strategy of strengthening Russia’s national security and ensuring its sustainable economic development, increasing its performance and competitiveness. It analyzes the historical experience of creating and using the science and technology potential of the USSR defense industry.
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Russia-Kazakhstan border-zone: sociological analysis
Статья научная
The article, based on the research conducted by the Center for Regional Sociology and Conflictology Studies of the Institute of Sociology of RAS, discusses the features of cross-border cooperation of Russia and Kazakhstan. It considers works of Western and Russian scientists to identify major approaches to the study of cross-border cooperation. It discusses strengthening of inter-ethnic and socio-economic integration and cross-border cooperation at the regional level. The borderland as a social phenomenon is an object of our study; the research is focused on local communities, understood as residents of Russian regions bordering with neighboring countries. This means that the research is devoted to local communities of the areas, located on Russia's borders with different states - with the new neighbors, which appeared after the USSR collapse (e.g., Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States in the West, Kazakhstan in the East) and the long-existing ones - Turkey, China, Mongolia, etc...
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Статья научная
The article provides an overview of the mechanisms of integration of agent-based models and GIS technology developed by Russian and foreign researchers. The basic framework of the article is based on critical analysis of domestic and foreign literature (monographs, scientific articles). The study is based on the application of universal scientific research methods: system approach, analysis and synthesis, classification, systematization and grouping, generalization and comparison. The article presents theoretical and methodological bases of integration of agent-based models and geographic information systems. The concept and essence of agent-based models are explained; their main advantages (compared to other modeling methods) are identified. The paper characterizes the operating environment of agents as a key concept in the theory of agent-based modeling. It is shown that geographic information systems have a wide range of information resources for calculations, searching, modeling of the real world in various aspects, acting as an effective tool for displaying the agents' operating environment and allowing to bring the model as close as possible to the real conditions...
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Russian arctic in the context of sustainable development
Статья научная
The article analyzes the socio-economic potential of Russian Arctic regions, by applying a standard statistical reporting for 1990-2011. The analysis is based on the method of critical indicators that made it possible to determine and get an objective assessment of processes taking place in the megaregion. The performed analysis has established that the situation in the Arctic regions sets the development of megaregion within resource-oriented paradigm. The preservation of current trends does not create opportunities even for simple reproduction, imposing significant restrictions on the transition to sustainable territorial development.
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Статья научная
Determination of strategic directions for development of Russian journals included in the international database Web of Science requires improvement of methods for assessing their level. The article proposes an approach, the essence of which is determined by the use of bibliometric analysis methods for a comprehensive assessment of the state of Russian economic journals, based on the indicators obtained from both international and national citation systems. Our data sources include indices that form the core of Web of Science and the Russian Science Citation Index. We assess the state of 18 Russian economic journals, including the journal Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast issued by Vologda Research Center of RAS. We summarize the experience of this journal in improving its international visibility. We define the factors that impede the integration of Russian journals into the world scientific and information space and outline strategic tasks that should be addressed so that the journals' position in the international space could be improved. The results obtained can be used by scientific organizations and editors to make decisions on the development of periodicals. The conclusions of our study are important for discussing the problem related to choosing approaches and criteria for evaluating scientific journals.
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Russian economy under tough external sanctions: problems, risks and opportunities
Статья научная
The article examines key issues related to the current economic crisis in Russia caused by large-scale sanctions imposed by Western countries. We analyze main trends that have developed in the Russian economy after the introduction of the sanctions. We provide findings of a questionnaire survey of representatives of Russian enterprises, showing the reaction of domestic producers to the crisis phenomena of 2022. Having analyzed official statistics, sectoral and corporate information, we identify growth points that have emerged in the Russian economy under new conditions and describe main reasons for these “success stories”. We assess major risks and threats related to the development of the Russian economy in the medium and long term and propose methods to deal with them. We show that under dramatic foreign policy pressure on Russia, it is necessary to significantly expand the scope of mobilization (planning) tools. These mechanisms should provide a prompt solution to such structural problems as the full-fledged revival of key economic sectors, infrastructure development, elimination of regional imbalances, etc. Increasing the role of mobilization tools should be ensured by expanding public investment, strengthening protectionism in foreign trade policy, introducing elements of indicative planning and currency control; at the same time, the key function of market mechanisms should be preserved. We argue that Russia’s economy could make a powerful breakthrough in the modern context. This point is justified, on the one hand, by analogy with the situation in the late 1990s (a powerful breakthrough of the Russian economy immediately after the abandonment of inadequate macrofinancial policy), on the other hand, by the survey data of RAS Institute of Economic Forecasting on a sufficiently high modernization activity of Russian enterprises at the present time.
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Russian industrial sector development in the context of new technological revolution
Статья
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Russian model of fiscal federalism: competition or cooperation?
Статья научная
The article presents the characteristic of the Russian model of fiscal federalism, structurally represented by expenditure commitments, tax authorities and financial assistance. The operating effect of the Russian budget model, based on the principles of cooperation with the prevailing elements of centralized management is evaluated. It is noted that the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation have wide range of expenditure commitments, but they do not have sufficient financial sources to cover this liability, and the financial assistance mechanism does not even the situation. Defining the type of the Russian model of fiscal federalism as competitive or cooperative will enable the new reforming of inter-budget relations (which is objectively bound to happen) to be adequate and noncontroversial to the principles and characteristics of mature fiscal model, to bring positive results.
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Russian model of population ageing (in the case of the northern regions)
Статья научная
The article dwells on the characteristics of the Russian model of population ageing, conditioned by the demographic wave, migration and short life expectancy. It has been revealed that Russia is approaching the demographic ageing model, typical of developed countries. The article describes the specific features of demographic ageing in Russia’s Northern regions. These features are conditioned by the ‘younger’ age structure of the population, low life expectancy, and large-scale migration outflows in the last two and a half decades. In addition, the article analyzes economic consequences of population ageing and defines the main social problems of old age.
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Russian president got a constitutional majority in the State Duma of the seventh convocation
Ред. заметка
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Russian society in 2015: what we learned about IT from sociological polls
Статья научная
Modern socio-political history of Russia can be quite clearly divided into several important periods, each of which is characterized by particular political environment and specific social consciousness. The accession of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation in March 2014 is one of the landmark events, a milestone that marks the transition from one phase of this history to the next. This event (or rather, process that started, according to some estimates, in the autumn of 2013, or in February 2014) indicated a sharp turn in Russian foreign policy and in its relations with the West and East. The accession of Crimea has led to phenomenal growth and expansion of support for the policy pursued by Vladimir Putin and for his personality: without exaggeration, he has become not just a political leader but the leader of the nation. The trend set by the accession of Crimea was evolving in 2014-2015; a special feature of this development was that Russia obtained the positive effect almost immediately, and negative consequences followed only after a while...
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Russian specifics of dacha suburbanization process: case study of the Moscow region
Статья научная
Topical issues related to the planning of urban agglomerations development include registration and analysis of changes in suburban areas in the process of socio-economic development. It is manifest, among other things, in urbanization, which in relation to larger cities is replaced by suburbanization. Suburbanization process has been developing to the greatest extent in North America and Western Europe. Scientific research confirms that the majority of large urban agglomerations are in the stage of suburbanization. The pace of suburbanization in the world is different - the authorities of individual countries, regions or cities often take measures to limit or simplify it: they reconstruct central cities, set limits to the construction in peripheral areas, etc. In Russia, the process of suburbanization started to develop rapidly only after the socio-economic transformation of the 1990s that led to the emergence of the free market of housing and land. The aim of the present work is to determine the specifics of suburbanization in Russia on the example of the Moscow Region...
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Russian statehood in the face of the “corruption of the elites” threat
Статья научная
The article is the final part of the series of publications “From the Editor-in-Chief”, published in 2020 in the journal “Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast”. Its central problem is the unsatisfactory quality of the ruling elites in Russia which, for almost the entire post-Soviet period, has been the main problem of stalling reforms and achievement of national development goals. The authors analyze the causes of this phenomenon; provide expert assessments and statistical data that allow us to assess the current state of the ruling elites in the country. The article examines the trends of public sentiment as an indicator of the negative consequences of the public administration inefficiency and the unrealization of social expectations from the government and from the President personally. We pay special attention to the content and results of the anti-corruption campaign initiated by the President of the Russian Federation in the mid-2010s. For this purpose, we analyze data of monthly reports of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation on the state of crime in the Russian Federation for the period from 2003 to October 2020, statistics of the Judicial Department at the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation on the state of criminal records in Russia for the period from 2012 to the first half of 2020, materials of mass media, and opinions of experts. The authors come to the conclusion that it is necessary to move from episodic, or “demonstrative”, criminal cases with a common motive being an internal political processes to systematic preventive work on the nationalization of the ruling elites. Its purpose is not to maintain a balance of interests within the elite groups but to solve the key tasks of national development: achieving social justice, reducing inequality, dynamic growth in the level of income and quality of life of the population. This approach mostly corresponds to the new socially oriented Constitution of 2020, and, ultimately, it allows hoping for the solution of many problems in the system of state administration, as well as for the development of Russian statehood in the civilizational and historical context.
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Статья научная
The COVID-19 pandemic has struck the tourism industry all over the world significantly reducing industry’s revenue and number of jobs. It has had a negative impact on the global economy. In Russia, the tourism sector was one of the most affected areas due to the quarantine restrictions that made the government take several supporting measures to mitigate the coronavirus effects and restore demand for tourist services. It actualizes the problem of assessing economic effects after stimulating consumption of tourism goods and services, as well as identifying and justifying the development directions of Russian tourism in un ntific novelty of the research is to determine, on the basis of inter-sectoral modeling, the effect for the Russian economy from the implementation of the program of subsidizing domestic tourist trips - so-called tourist cashback. The results of the study have identified the importance of stimulating population’s demand for recreation within the country for economy and have found the territorial disparity problem in the distribution of the increase in gross output caused by Russian tourist’s consumption growth. As for the research methodological base, the author uses general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, and tools based on input-output analysis methodology. Information base includes the works of domestic and foreign scientists dealing with tourism development problems in the post-crisis period, the assessment of its impact on economic parameters, as well as information from state statistics authorities, data from the World Bank, the World Tourism Organization, and the Russian Public Opinion Research Center. The prospects for future studies are related to designing regional tourism development areas that contribute to the increase in population’s consumption volume of tourist products and growing competitiveness of the latter.
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Russia’s payment system in the new geopolitical and economic conditions: problems and prospect
Статья научная
Taking into account an unprecedented number and quality of packages of external restrictive measures introduced against the financial and real sectors of the Russian economy, the mechanism for ensuring sustainable development of the national economy obviously needs comprehensive adjustment, from the point of view of updating priorities, and from the standpoint of monitoring the level of compliance and adaptation to the emerging challenges. Among the most sensitive restrictions, as envisioned by their initiators, are measures against the Russian financial sector, primarily the payment system and infrastructure. The article presents the results of analyzing the effectiveness of the national payment system in modern conditions. We highlight emerging trends in the activities of payment agents and payment system operators and substantiate promising directions for the development of the national payment infrastructure. The aim of the study is to determine the degree of influence of current challenges and threats on the efficiency and effectiveness of the national payment system. The novelty of the research is associated with the influence of unique external conditions that affect the functioning of the object of research. The set of indicators proposed in the work to assess the effectiveness of the national payment system allows for the system-wide integration of the most important aspects of the changes taking place in the infrastructure of payment systems. The results of the analysis confirm the need for the Bank of Russia to take and implement preventive decisions and introduce infrastructural changes to the operation of the national payment system in the context of escalating external restrictions. The conclusions of the study contain specific measures aimed at improving approaches to determining the effectiveness of the national payment system operators. Our key recommendation is to increase attention to the issues of priority development of payment turnover based on the implementation of innovation technologies and products, comprehensive infrastructure renovation, countering risks and threats in the policy of the Bank of Russia.
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Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet time: economic strategies and development
Статья научная
This paper studies the main features and results of economic development of Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet period. The purpose was to determine the extent of influence of urban development on the results of development of Saint Petersburg during this period. The method used in this study consists in the processing of a large array of statistical and analytical materials and regulatory framework; determination of the mutual relationship between the achieved results and the implementation of the program-planning documents that define the objectives, priorities and tasks of socio-economic development of Saint Petersburg. In the course of work the authors have highlighted seven key stages in the development of the city’s economy for the past 22 years, and six stages of development of the socio-economic planning system. The research into the specifics of Saint Petersburg economy within these stages shows that external conditionshave a decisive influence on the results of its economic development...
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Sales markets for the goods of the regions of the northwest of Russia: quantitative assessment
Статья научная
Promoting the spatial factor in the development of the national economy requires the implementation of state policy on the transformation of interregional value chains. This task is specific due to the vast spaces and the high degree of polarization of the country’s economic sphere. The purpose of the study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of the sales markets of regions within the Northwest of Russia, taking into account the industry and territorial specifics of their production. The analysis reveals that, in general, in the Northwest of Russia, national and foreign markets prevail over local and macroregional, and interterritorial interaction remains largely fragmented. However, the presence of specialization industries in the regions, combined with relatively stable external demand, can contribute to the development of interregional value chains. It is noted that in Russia, the tasks of optimal zoning and development of value chains are of crucial importance, and it is reflected in the program documents. It is shown that the macroregion uses the potential of internal cooperation only to a small extent, being to a greater extent an array of multidirectionally oriented market zones with Saint Petersburg as its core and a number of value chains, often export-oriented. It is concluded that the nature of supplies to foreign markets is determined not only by the export specialization of the territory, but also by the diversification of the economic system. The findings of our research can be used to develop strategic documents for spatial development, programs for the development of economic sectors and industrial clusters. In the future, we will continue the work on searching for new growth points and the most promising areas of structural changes for the transition of regions and the country as a whole to sustainable socio-economic development.
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Satisfaction with the work-life balance: working women's view (regional aspect)
Статья научная
One of the employee’s objective needs is an appropriate balance between work and private life. The article presents a comparative study of satisfaction with the work-life balance among working women with and without children. Based on the materials of a questionnaire survey of the Vologda Oblast workingage population, conducted in 2018, we investigate the features of perception of the following aspects of work and family life: satisfaction with the ability to combine work and family responsibilities, the impact of work on various aspects of daily life, the ability to organize recreation, the presence of problems related to one’s close environment, qualitative characteristics of work. We have revealed that working women with and without children have predominant positive or neutral impact of work on daily life, and there are no significant differences in the number of working days per month and the actual length of the working day. We have found that women without children often perform extra work, are less able to organize their leisure time, and are harsher in relation to their close environment. However, there are no significant differences in satisfaction with the work-life balance among women with and without children. The paper determines that working women (regardless of parental status) who satisfactorily assess the ability to combine work and family responsibilities are characterized by better indicators of labor activity (fewer delays and disruptions in work, less failure to fulfill plans, etc.), a higher level of realization of physical, personal and professional abilities in work. The similarity of the subjective perception of the work-life balance among working women with and without children may indicate women’s high adaptability to multitasking and time allocation. We highlight the importance of improving the policy on family and employment, in particular in terms of developing flexible employment formats.
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Scenario development forecast of the region under the conditions of economic instability
Статья научная
The problem of the reliable prognoses of economical development is mainframe for making up any strategic document. No methodology can guarantee clear indexes of the long-rang dynamics. Under such circumstances the proper way out can be creating of the alternative scenarios, characterizing the threshold possibilities of the event development. Such point of view is especially relevant under the circumstances of the economic instability.
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