Public finance. Рубрика в журнале - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Статья научная
The paper examines development specifics of sovereign bond markets in the CIS countries. The sample includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, since only these countries, among the CIS members, possess enough sovereign bonds included in the global debt market. The relevance of the study is due to the increasing financial uncertainty, which attracts attention to relatively reliable means of public debt; the need to understand the functioning of debt markets against the background of antiRussian sanctions and the increasing influence of the State. The aim of the work is to empirically verify the connectivity, integration and predictability of the sovereign bond markets of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. Empirical data include daily refinancing rates of national central banks, indices of total sovereign bond yields, G-spreads of international bonds of the countries in relation to the conditionally risk-free US bond yield curve for 2019-2023. The effects of market development features are divided into local, regional and global, such as the reaction to COVID-19 and anti-Russian sanctions after 2022. We use the following methods: dynamics analysis, correlation, factor and regression analysis. The novelty of the research lies in introducing new empirical data into scientific discourse, testing a methodology that allows us to assess the interaction of monetary policies and the functioning of sovereign bond markets, common features and differences in the behavior of these markets before and after the imposition of sanctions against the Russian financial system. We conclude that the integration of the considered markets within the CIS is violated, which poses risks to the effective economic development of the region. We consider the relatively developed and integrated, but poorly predictable markets of Russia and Kazakhstan. Unlike Russia, Kazakhstan has more connectivity regarding its monetary policy, sovereign bond yields and risks. The yield of Azerbaijan’s sovereign bonds is influenced by a more developed market of Kazakhstan, especially in terms of risk assessment, but the market itself is developed poorly. Uzbekistan’s market is even less integrated and developed.
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Studying the stock market of Ukraine with the use of the event analysis
Статья научная
The study presents basic principles of the event analysis developed for the purpose of improving the forecasting of market conditions. The aim of the study is to create the theoretical foundations of the event analysis of the stock market and their empirical substantiation. This type of analysis will make it possible to take into consideration the general trends in the stock market more comprehensively. For this purpose, the authors present the mathematical tools of the study, disclose the theoretical basis and genesis of the method proposed. In addition, the article contains the statistical analysis of the stock market performed with the use of traditional statistical methods and with the tools of the event analysis, first of all, the information elasticity. Empirical testing on the data on exchange rates and PFTS and the Ukraine Stock Exchange indices allowed the authors to establish the connection between events and changes in the indices, to identify several cases of excessive response that may be indicative of insider influence...
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Статья научная
The article shows that the essential tools for managing the public and municipal finances are emerged from the organization of the budget process because this process permeates all areas of fiscal activity of public and municipal authorities. The author emphasizes that the changes in the economic, social and financial policy of the state at a particular stage of development of the country influence over the budget process. The author has focused attention on determining the place and the role of local budgets in the general system of the country's budget process. He considers some new methods in budget planning and forecasting.
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Статья научная
The exacerbation of external sanctions pressure on Russia in 2022, which continues to increase at present, has brought to the fore the national agenda of improving the quality of life and standard of living of Russians, achieving national benchmarks in this area and solving problems on the “inner circuit” in the face of new (including existential) challenges. There is a growing need for the development of a scientific and informational basis for the in-depth elaboration of effective responses to the challenges posed. The article presents the results of the research, which continues our developments in the field of studying the relationship between the quality of employment and living standards, focusing on the identification of features in generation groups: young people (up to 35 years), middle generation (36 years - retirement age), the older generation (retirement age). In this study, based on original developments, we have set out with the aim of identifying the unused potential of employment quality in generation groups of workers and its connection with the economic (un)sustainability of households, which determines their standard of living. The empirical basis was the data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the HSE and the Comprehensive Monitoring of Living Conditions of the Population by Rosstat. The potential quality of employment of generation groups of workers is revealed, which is determined by the mismatch between education and employment (mismatch between the level of education and specialty, required in the workplace), the presence of precarious employment revealed on the basis of the indicators we have proposed. We consider the dynamics of economic sustainability of workers' households, determined on the basis of our developments and formed by the income from employment in generation groups of workers, as a whole and depending on the characteristics of the quality of employment. The results of this study allow us to update public policy decisions in the areas of employment and vocational education to improve the performance of the chain “education - employment - economic sustainability - standard of living”.
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Статья научная
The dynamics of the financial market depends on the expectations of investors, which are largely determined by economic and political events. To form investment strategies, it is important to understand which events described in the news may affect changes in the value of assets. The purpose of this work is to identify the topics of political news that affect the profitability of shares of Russian companies, and to compare the predictive power of news from Russian and foreign sources. This study investigates the relationship between political news about Russia, obtained from domestic (“Interfax”) and foreign (“New York Times”) sources, and the stock returns of 193 Russian companies over the period from September 1, 2021 to August 31, 2023. There were 30 political dictionaries from each source identified using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, and the differences in the highlighted political themes were noted. Time-series models were used to test hypotheses about the impact of political news on the stock prices of Russian companies. The study demonstrates that the Russian stock market’s dynamics are impacted by news from various sources. Specifically, political dictionaries derived from foreign sources enhance the return predictions for the stocks of 142 Russian companies, whereas those from domestic sources improve the forecasts for 146 ones. Nevertheless, models incorporating political news from domestic sources yield higher-quality return forecasts. Additionally, using the Random Forest algorithm, it is demonstrated that the domestic media’s interpretation of events, which are covered in both Russian and foreign news, exerts a more substantial influence on the domestic stock market. Furthermore, models that integrate political dictionaries from both sources exhibit superior quality compared to those that rely on news from a single source. Based on the results obtained, it is demonstrated that incorporating political news into investment decisions enables investors to construct stock portfolios with higher returns.
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The overdue transformation of the budget policy model in the context of growing economic dynamics
Статья научная
The changes taking place in the Russian economy under the influence of structural shifts and institutional transformations caused by external shocks determine the need to find a balance between budget planning and economic forecasting, taking into account the revealed differences in scenario approaches, deviations in the execution of the federal budget relative to planned assignments, weak connection between budget expenditures and subsequent socio-economic dynamics. It is proved that strong economic growth is associated with the liberation of the Russian economy from the dominance of foreign business in domestic markets. The problem is the discrepancy between conservative fiscal policy and the challenges of economic development, including the development of scenario conditions for a medium-term forecast for it. The unpreparedness of the public sector for high economic growth can become a brake on economic growth and institutional transformations. The directions of expanding the fiscal space in connection with the processes of adaptation of the Russian economy to external shocks are highlighted. These include differences between scenario conditions; between the GDP parameters adopted in the draft federal budget for the first fiscal year and the reporting values of this indicator at the end of the year, faster GDP growth compared with official forecasts; structural, transformational and institutional changes taking place in the Russian economy. To improve the quality of scenario forecasting underlying the development of the federal budget, it is necessary to include ambitious “target” and “crisis” scenarios in the scenario conditions developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation along with conservative and basic ones. The clarification of the scenario conditions should be based on an assessment of the economic consequences of the implementation of budgetary policy measures. The composition of indicators of scenario conditions requires expansion. In addition to the current adjustments to the budget process, deeper reforms should begin to be worked out, corresponding to high economic growth and serious structural shifts in the economy.
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The potential of tax impact on the economic inequality of citizens in Russia
Статья научная
In Russia, the possibilities of smoothing inequality through taxes have not been implemented, despite the consistently high inequality, its acute perception by citizens and attention to the problem at the highest level of government. The aim of the study is to determine the possibilities for smoothing the economic inequality of citizens in Russia with the help of tax instruments. The hypothesis of the study is that the set of instruments of income, indirect and property taxation of citizens in Russia has a significant unrealized potential for smoothing economic inequality. To test the hypothesis, we use correlation and regression analysis and decomposition of tax instruments according to areas (income, property and indirect) and explore the dependence of inequality indicators on tax tools used for smoothing inequality. Based on the data from Rosstat, Federal Tax Service, World Bank, OECD, Credit Suisse and the World Inequality Database, a Data Set was formed which includes 2.6 thousand indicators. The calculations were performed using the Data Analysis Toolpak in MS Excel. The relevance of personal income tax deductions was assessed by using sociological survey dat. It was established that the current tax instruments do not help to smooth inequality in Russia, and sometimes, on the contrary, lead to its growth. It seems advisable to smooth inequality within the framework of income taxation by increasing the progression of personal income tax and introducing a tax-free minimum in conjunction with the minimum wage, increasing the share of social tax deductions. In the field of property taxes, it is advisable to increase the tax burden for owners of expensive or many objects of property, and provide the targeting of tax benefits. In terms of indirect taxes, it is expedient to reduce VAT on goods and services that make up the bulk of consumption expenses of the least well-off citizens, for example, housing and communal services, and to increase VAT on items that form the basis of consumption of the rich, for example, the return of the 20% rate on recreation, hotels, cafes and restaurants. The potential of tax administration in smoothing inequality is determined by the possibilities of ensuring the completeness of taxation of current income, capital and consumption of the most affluent citizens.
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Topical issues of the improvement of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local government
Статья научная
The intension of “intergovernmental dealings” is expounded in the article. It deals with the main problems of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local self-government, which is a fundamental element of the budget system in the Russian Federation. It is difficult to transform the budget sphere of the country without strengthening of it. It is shown that the real local self-government in Russia is determined by the provision of municipalities with their own financial assets. The authors have analyzed the actual state of the financial relationship between the bodies of state power and local self-government. They have outlined a set of measures aimed at the improvement of intergovernmental dealings at the municipal level.
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Transformation of tax incentives for investments in human capital
Статья научная
The study analyzes the experience of tax support for investing in human capital in the Russian Federation, and also evaluates the effects of such support. We systematize tools for tax incentives aimed at the development of human capital by subject (organization and individual), type of taxes, and level at which they are introduced (federal, regional, local). We determine the amount of tax benefits aimed at investments in human capital per taxpayer and assess fiscal significance of the shortfall in budget revenues of Russia’s budgetary system. We put forward directions to develop the system of tax support for investments in human capital in two aspects: classical and comprehensive. The classical aspect assumes parallel tax regulation of the parties to the investment process in human capital (individuals, organizations, infrastructure entities). The complex aspect assumes simultaneous tax regulation of the parties to the investment process in human capital through the system of state support for E-STEM education. The options for making up for the shortfall in budget revenues in connection with the expansion of the package of tax incentives are proposed. Such options, in particular, include: progressive taxation of personal income using indexed graduated scales, legalization of shadow income from renting real estate to individuals through tax deductions, establishment of joint and several liability in social insurance of employees and employers. Practical significance of the work consists in the possibility of using specific proposals to amend the legislation of the Russian Federation in the field of tax incentives for human capital by public authorities in the development of public policy measures aimed at economic growth.
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Why is the self-sufficiency of urban districts budgets not growing
Статья научная
Urban districts occupy a special place in the system of municipalities due to their potential and role in the implementation of governmental economic policy. Possessing the most developed infrastructure, facilities and a good financial basis, large and medium-sized cities accumulate the major part of budget revenues. However, the predominant part of their revenues that amounts, according to various estimates, to 70-85% [1, 6, 15] goes to superior budgets. As a consequence of the reforms of intergovernmental fiscal relations and local government that were held in 2000-2009, cities were left without stable, legislated fiscal revenue sources that were sufficient to fulfill their obligations to the population. Currently, city government can fully dispose of single tax on imputed income, individual property tax and land tax. Significant imbalances in the distribution of budget revenues make cities dependent on the financial assistance of higher levels of public authority and lead to an accumulation of problems...
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