Public finance. Рубрика в журнале - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Статья научная
The paper examines development specifics of sovereign bond markets in the CIS countries. The sample includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, since only these countries, among the CIS members, possess enough sovereign bonds included in the global debt market. The relevance of the study is due to the increasing financial uncertainty, which attracts attention to relatively reliable means of public debt; the need to understand the functioning of debt markets against the background of antiRussian sanctions and the increasing influence of the State. The aim of the work is to empirically verify the connectivity, integration and predictability of the sovereign bond markets of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. Empirical data include daily refinancing rates of national central banks, indices of total sovereign bond yields, G-spreads of international bonds of the countries in relation to the conditionally risk-free US bond yield curve for 2019-2023. The effects of market development features are divided into local, regional and global, such as the reaction to COVID-19 and anti-Russian sanctions after 2022. We use the following methods: dynamics analysis, correlation, factor and regression analysis. The novelty of the research lies in introducing new empirical data into scientific discourse, testing a methodology that allows us to assess the interaction of monetary policies and the functioning of sovereign bond markets, common features and differences in the behavior of these markets before and after the imposition of sanctions against the Russian financial system. We conclude that the integration of the considered markets within the CIS is violated, which poses risks to the effective economic development of the region. We consider the relatively developed and integrated, but poorly predictable markets of Russia and Kazakhstan. Unlike Russia, Kazakhstan has more connectivity regarding its monetary policy, sovereign bond yields and risks. The yield of Azerbaijan’s sovereign bonds is influenced by a more developed market of Kazakhstan, especially in terms of risk assessment, but the market itself is developed poorly. Uzbekistan’s market is even less integrated and developed.
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Studying the stock market of Ukraine with the use of the event analysis
Статья научная
The study presents basic principles of the event analysis developed for the purpose of improving the forecasting of market conditions. The aim of the study is to create the theoretical foundations of the event analysis of the stock market and their empirical substantiation. This type of analysis will make it possible to take into consideration the general trends in the stock market more comprehensively. For this purpose, the authors present the mathematical tools of the study, disclose the theoretical basis and genesis of the method proposed. In addition, the article contains the statistical analysis of the stock market performed with the use of traditional statistical methods and with the tools of the event analysis, first of all, the information elasticity. Empirical testing on the data on exchange rates and PFTS and the Ukraine Stock Exchange indices allowed the authors to establish the connection between events and changes in the indices, to identify several cases of excessive response that may be indicative of insider influence...
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Статья научная
The article shows that the essential tools for managing the public and municipal finances are emerged from the organization of the budget process because this process permeates all areas of fiscal activity of public and municipal authorities. The author emphasizes that the changes in the economic, social and financial policy of the state at a particular stage of development of the country influence over the budget process. The author has focused attention on determining the place and the role of local budgets in the general system of the country's budget process. He considers some new methods in budget planning and forecasting.
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Статья научная
The exacerbation of external sanctions pressure on Russia in 2022, which continues to increase at present, has brought to the fore the national agenda of improving the quality of life and standard of living of Russians, achieving national benchmarks in this area and solving problems on the “inner circuit” in the face of new (including existential) challenges. There is a growing need for the development of a scientific and informational basis for the in-depth elaboration of effective responses to the challenges posed. The article presents the results of the research, which continues our developments in the field of studying the relationship between the quality of employment and living standards, focusing on the identification of features in generation groups: young people (up to 35 years), middle generation (36 years - retirement age), the older generation (retirement age). In this study, based on original developments, we have set out with the aim of identifying the unused potential of employment quality in generation groups of workers and its connection with the economic (un)sustainability of households, which determines their standard of living. The empirical basis was the data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the HSE and the Comprehensive Monitoring of Living Conditions of the Population by Rosstat. The potential quality of employment of generation groups of workers is revealed, which is determined by the mismatch between education and employment (mismatch between the level of education and specialty, required in the workplace), the presence of precarious employment revealed on the basis of the indicators we have proposed. We consider the dynamics of economic sustainability of workers' households, determined on the basis of our developments and formed by the income from employment in generation groups of workers, as a whole and depending on the characteristics of the quality of employment. The results of this study allow us to update public policy decisions in the areas of employment and vocational education to improve the performance of the chain “education - employment - economic sustainability - standard of living”.
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The potential of tax impact on the economic inequality of citizens in Russia
Статья научная
In Russia, the possibilities of smoothing inequality through taxes have not been implemented, despite the consistently high inequality, its acute perception by citizens and attention to the problem at the highest level of government. The aim of the study is to determine the possibilities for smoothing the economic inequality of citizens in Russia with the help of tax instruments. The hypothesis of the study is that the set of instruments of income, indirect and property taxation of citizens in Russia has a significant unrealized potential for smoothing economic inequality. To test the hypothesis, we use correlation and regression analysis and decomposition of tax instruments according to areas (income, property and indirect) and explore the dependence of inequality indicators on tax tools used for smoothing inequality. Based on the data from Rosstat, Federal Tax Service, World Bank, OECD, Credit Suisse and the World Inequality Database, a Data Set was formed which includes 2.6 thousand indicators. The calculations were performed using the Data Analysis Toolpak in MS Excel. The relevance of personal income tax deductions was assessed by using sociological survey dat. It was established that the current tax instruments do not help to smooth inequality in Russia, and sometimes, on the contrary, lead to its growth. It seems advisable to smooth inequality within the framework of income taxation by increasing the progression of personal income tax and introducing a tax-free minimum in conjunction with the minimum wage, increasing the share of social tax deductions. In the field of property taxes, it is advisable to increase the tax burden for owners of expensive or many objects of property, and provide the targeting of tax benefits. In terms of indirect taxes, it is expedient to reduce VAT on goods and services that make up the bulk of consumption expenses of the least well-off citizens, for example, housing and communal services, and to increase VAT on items that form the basis of consumption of the rich, for example, the return of the 20% rate on recreation, hotels, cafes and restaurants. The potential of tax administration in smoothing inequality is determined by the possibilities of ensuring the completeness of taxation of current income, capital and consumption of the most affluent citizens.
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Topical issues of the improvement of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local government
Статья научная
The intension of “intergovernmental dealings” is expounded in the article. It deals with the main problems of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local self-government, which is a fundamental element of the budget system in the Russian Federation. It is difficult to transform the budget sphere of the country without strengthening of it. It is shown that the real local self-government in Russia is determined by the provision of municipalities with their own financial assets. The authors have analyzed the actual state of the financial relationship between the bodies of state power and local self-government. They have outlined a set of measures aimed at the improvement of intergovernmental dealings at the municipal level.
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Why is the self-sufficiency of urban districts budgets not growing
Статья научная
Urban districts occupy a special place in the system of municipalities due to their potential and role in the implementation of governmental economic policy. Possessing the most developed infrastructure, facilities and a good financial basis, large and medium-sized cities accumulate the major part of budget revenues. However, the predominant part of their revenues that amounts, according to various estimates, to 70-85% [1, 6, 15] goes to superior budgets. As a consequence of the reforms of intergovernmental fiscal relations and local government that were held in 2000-2009, cities were left without stable, legislated fiscal revenue sources that were sufficient to fulfill their obligations to the population. Currently, city government can fully dispose of single tax on imputed income, individual property tax and land tax. Significant imbalances in the distribution of budget revenues make cities dependent on the financial assistance of higher levels of public authority and lead to an accumulation of problems...
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