Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
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Hybrid organizations in the non-governmental sector of social services: a sociological analysis
Статья научная
Issues regarding the development of the third sector are among major ones in research on Russia’s modern socio-economic system. Current trends in the transformation of the social services sector include the emergence and development of hybrid organizations whose activity combines social goals and commercial objectives. At the same time, hybrid forms in the social sphere have not been given due attention; Russian authors consider hybrid organizations mainly in relation to the development of public-private partnership in the field of economics. The aim of our research is to analyze theoretical approaches to understanding the hybrid model of organizations and consider specific examples of implementation of hybrid forms among Russian non-governmental organizations, which determines the scientific novelty of the work. Another task is to identify the most successful and innovative practices in the development of hybrid organizations representing the relationship between non-governmental and business structures. To solve it, we analyzed two cases: Penza and Kislovodsk, which represent a cluster of organizations providing services to children and adults with special needs. The results of the study showed that the tendency toward the development of hybrid forms for non-governmental organizations is largely related to the desire to achieve financial security. Currently, there exist other hybrid forms besides publicprivate partnerships and non-governmental organizations founded by large commercial organizations and affiliated with them; there emerge new institutional forms when non-governmental organizations establish commercial enterprises that, as a rule, provide additional services or replicate successful social practices on a commercial basis. Such organizations are intended to ensure financial stability of nongovernmental organizations, since part of the profit goes to support the latter. This process opens up significant opportunities for the development of the non-governmental sector, but requires finding a balance between the commercial and social components of such a partnership. The hybrid format creates new prospects for the third sector, allowing for the diversification of resources through the interaction of non-governmental and commercial structures and building more effective interaction with regional authorities. Further research in this area may be related to analyzing the effectiveness of hybrid forms in comparison with traditional NGOs, as well as studying long-term consequences of hybridization for the development of the third sector.
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Статья научная
During the years of market transformation Russia witnessed significant reduction in the share of science-intensive sector in the national and regional economy (there has been a decrease in the demand for the results of RD the real wages of researchers declined; the value of professional research activity decreased in the eyes of the public; the inflow of young people in science reduced as well). Overcoming these negative trends requires new approaches to the formation of the country's research potential. The integration of education and science is the most important of these approaches. The article covers the experience in this area, gained at the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS through the establishment and organization of the work of the Research and Education Centre (REC) for Economics and Information Technologies, which has been functioning for ten years already. The article presents certain conceptual and methodological approaches to the formation of REC, the teaching methods used for educating young people in the chain “school - university - postgraduate studies - research activity”...
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Статья научная
The paper substantiates and identifies the characteristics and emerging trends of structural change in the research and innovation process in the conditions of formation of post-industrial economy and transition to post-industrial technology. The characteristics and developments concern the structure of the research and innovation process, research and development quality, the role of basic science and high technology, the place of services in research and innovation products, and the spatial context of the structure. The evolution of the concept and content (structure) of the research and innovation process determines the initial trend in the specific features of structural change in the research and innovation process. The authors of the article investigate the dynamics of the main indicators of innovation activity as an integrated result of boosting the efficiency of the research and innovation process, the indicators of development of high-tech industries with special emphasis on nanotechnology and information and communication technology, the indicators of dissemination of post-industrial economic services, in the spatial context as well...
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Статья научная
The article proposes an approach to the definition of the directions of transformation of scientific and innovation space, and ways of its development from the viewpoint of improving the interaction between different regions, expansion of the involvement of regions in the research and innovation process for ensuring greater dissemination of research findings and innovation. The research is conducted in the context of the necessity to expand the role of science in the post-industrial era. This approach is based on the author’s methodology of selecting different regions by assessing their innovation development. The methodology consists in making the statistical distribution of Russian regions by selected indicators, identifying groups of regions that are close to each other by the degree of innovation development, on the basis of the standard deviation, and establishing the link between the identified groups of regions that reflects the possibility of interaction between the groups of regions on creating scientific results and their promotion in the spatial dimension...
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Identification of interconnection between health and employment of retirement age women
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Recently, Russia has been actively developing and implementing the state policy of encouraging theemploymentofpeopleoftheoldergeneration. Thepurposeofthepaperistoidentifytheinterconnection between the employment of pensioners and their health (on the example of pension age women in the most active age group), which will allow justifying the more efficient policy in this area. The study is aimed at the test of two hypotheses, put forward due to the analysis of theoretical models and sociological surveys of the population. The first one suggests that retirees’ labor activity contributes to the preservation of their health; the second one states that only retirees, whose health allows doing it, continue to work. A diagram of the dependencies between the retirees’ employment, their health, and other factors, which formed the basis of the regression models, is generated. As a criterion of testing the hypotheses set in the research, two multivariate linear regression models, which evaluate the statistical dependence between employment, health status of pensioners, and other variables, were constructed. Based on the calculation of the determinant of the correlation matrix, the existence of linear dependence between explanatory variables in regression models was excluded. The study was conducted on the example of women at the age of 55-59 according to statistical data of Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Service for Supervision in the Sphere of Nature and of the Federal Treasury. The results of the regression analysis confirmed only the first hypothesis, the second one was rejected. The proportion of working women at the age of 55-59 is largely statistically associated with the mortality rate of women of the same age. In turn, economic growth, tensions on the labor market, and the level of pension provision appeared to be statistically significant factors influencing the employment of women at the age of 55-59.
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Статья научная
Due to the difficult socio-economic situation of Russia’s regions, it is necessary to involve nongovernmental providers of socially significant services to eliminate government failures. In this regard, socially oriented nonprofit organizations play an important role. As practice shows, despite the recognized importance of such organizations, their potential in the regional economy is not implemented to the fullest extent. Reasons for such a situation are studied in a large number of works, but they do not always take into account territorial specifics, which makes it difficult to identify specific areas of problem solving. Thus, the aim of this study is to identify barriers to and prerequisites for the sustainable development of socially oriented nonprofit organizations as an active subject of the regional economy, effectively implementing its functions in socially significant sectors of the economy on a systematic and long-term basis. To achieve this goal, we analyze the functioning of socially oriented nonprofit organizations (using the example of Perm Territory). The information base includes a set of relevant regulatory documents, data from state and departmental statistics, ratings of RF constituent entities, findings of sociological research commissioned by the Grants Fund of the Governor of Perm Territory in 2020-2022. We systematize the problems that socially oriented nonprofit organizations deal with in their work, according to the impact on the organization, respectively, related to the external and internal environment. On this basis, we outline the conditions necessary to increase the sustainability of the development of socially oriented nonprofit organizations in the region.
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Статья научная
Within the framework of the article, we assess regions and countries that in the future may become new foci of economic and civilizational activity. This issue is relevant because many countries are now witnessing the exhaustion of demographic growth opportunities, which in turn will hinder intensive economic growth in them. To address the issue, we propose a two-stage econometric modeling procedure. The first econometric dependence links population growth rate with total fertility rate, and the second dependence reveals the impact of economic, institutional and cultural factors on fertility rate. Empirical testing of models was performed for a sample of 15 countries (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, France, Germany, Iran, Japan, China, Mexico, Egypt, Great Britain, USA, Canada and Australia) and showed high productivity and invariance of the proposed model scheme. Based on the constructed models, we put forward several quantitative characteristics of national demographic regimes. The most important of them is the long-term demographic effect of scale, taking into account the reaction of the population to the growth of per capita welfare. Applied calculations show that the U.S. still has the potential to maintain its growth regime for quite a long time, while China, Japan and Germany have almost exhausted this resource. The most likely foci of a new round of development of human civilization may be Russia, Kazakhstan and Iran, which, taking into account neighboring countries, form a kind of regional cluster in the center of Eurasia. It is in this area of the planet that we should expect the greatest economic and political activity in the next two to three decades.
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Статья научная
The problem of identifying the dynamics of changes in the human potential of the Eurasian Economic Union is in the focus of attention of the EAEU member states; each of them takes its own measures against economic and political risks and threats on the way toward ensuring national demographic security. Russia has formulated and operates its own systems for assessing and monitoring demographic security. However, due to the complex nature of the problem of ensuring the demographic security of the EAEU countries, it must be considered and solved through the implementation of state programs not only within the country, but also within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union as a whole. Our aim is to identify negative trends in demographic development in all post-Soviet countries during the collapse of the USSR, which led to a decrease in human potential in Russia and other EAEU countries, and to substantiate the system of indicators and indices of demographic security in the context of Eurasian integration. We consider the resource opportunities that the EAEU countries obtain due to the functioning of a single integration association, and provide the overview of trends, problems and contradictions of integration processes. Based on the comparative analysis of the demographic situation in the EAEU member states, we can talk about the general indicators of crisis changes: a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality, increased mobility of the population, although each country in these years was characterized by its own special dominants reflecting the demographic situation. Our systematic measurements of the dynamics of changes in Russia’s human potential in the context of integration processes, based on the idea of an empirical model of integration, planning and forecasting within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, allowed us to identify quantitative and qualitative signs of the functioning of the demographic development of the EAEU countries and develop a number of significant recommendations. The results of the study can be used in the development of the state policy of Russia and the EAEU countries in the field of ensuring the stability of demographic security in the conditions of integration.
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Identifying the effect of decoupling in major economic sectors of the Komi Republic
Статья научная
The concept of decoupling is currently recognized as a strategic basis for moving toward an environmentally sustainable economy. This fact is confirmed by a review of publications discussing the possibility of achieving an imperative distinction between economic activity, welfare, and resource utilization. In this regard, the relevance of the problem of ensuring sustainable eco-economic development of the region is increasing, which determined the purpose of the work - to obtain the evidence base proving the actual achievement of decoupling in basic industries (extractive, manufacturing, energy). In order to assess the relationship between economic activity and environmental impact at the industry level, we adapted the Tapio decoupling model known as the Decoupling Diamond, which includes eight decoupling states depending on economic growth rate, resource consumption or environmental impact and the value of the elasticity coefficient representing the growth ratio of these indicators. Determining the state of decoupling in each industry includes calculating the rate of change in gross value added (in comparable prices) and environmental indicators: water abstraction, dirty discharge, air pollutant emissions, production waste generation for the period 2010-2019. The results obtained indicate that the rates of change in gross value added, consumption of natural resources, and the negative impact on the environment are related, separated, or negatively divided. For all of the industries under consideration we have revealed a weak negative decoupling on the dirty discharge, for the energy industry - a weak decoupling on the production waste generation. We have identified a downward trend in current and investment environmental costs in the extractive and manufacturing industries, as well as an increase in the proportion of payments for negative environmental impact (NEI) and a decline in innovation activity. The results of the study indicate the need to improve the economic performance of basic industries and strengthen their environmental protection activities; subsequently, the results may be in demand for regulation of eco-economic relations.
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Статья научная
One of the factors determining the structure of the expenditure part of Russia’s federal budget is represented by considerable imbalances in the spatial development of the country. The impact of this factor consists in the annual need to allocate funds to non-self-sufficient regions in the form of subsidies, which can be directed, for example, to the development of business in prosperous entities. The aim of the research is to carry out an accurate and adequate quantitative assessment of the degree of such an imbalance over a long retrospective period of time. Practical significance of the assessment is due to the fact that it will allow us to see which decisions of the authorities aggravated the problem under consideration, and therefore to develop recommendations for levelling off these imbalances. When choosing a method to achieve the goal, we decided to use the Herfindahl - Hirschman index that contains a modification proposed by Professor S.G. Svetunkov, which eliminates its disadvantage consisting in the dependence of the final value on the number of units included in the set under consideration. The use of this indicator has become the main element of the scientific novelty of the study. Having assessed the degree of heterogeneity of the Russian economic space on the basis of information retrieved from the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service, we use regression analysis to derive an equation describing its impact on the structure of the expenditure part of the federal budget. According to the viewpoint that we share, the key tool consists in smoothing out the imbalances within the economic regions that form the country. Their assessment is carried out in a similar way and is also an element of the scientific novelty of the study. Guided by the results obtained, we identify regions where the elimination of vulnerabilities can reduce the heterogeneity of the economic space of the respective economic regions and Russia as a whole. The indicator tested in the study can be used in the future, for example, to assess the degree of uneven distribution of various resources (material, financial, etc.) on the territory of Russia.
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Impact of global financial crisis on emerging markets
Статья научная
This article is focused on the implications of the financial crisis for emerging markets. The author analyses the impact of financial turmoil on the economic growth in emerging economies and gives possible recommendations to mitigate this impact.
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Статья научная
The successful development of Northern and Arctic areas depends on sustainable functioning of the agricultural sector. Agriculture and fishing agriculture is a way of life of the indigenous population. The article discusses the state of agriculture and food self-sufficiency in the Komi Republic in the years of relatively stable development (1960-1980) and in the conditions of market reforms. It analyzes production and consumption of food and shows a positive effect of modernization processes on the agricultural sector in the pre-reform period. It studies market transformation of the agrarian economy, accompanied in the 1990s by the sharp decline in agricultural production, degradation of productive capacity, rural demography, rural infrastructure, decrease in living standard of farmers, and disparity of prices on agricultural and industrial products. The paper discloses trends in food self-sufficiency of the northern region in 1980-2013 and reveals reasons for the decrease in its level in the period of market reforms...
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Статья научная
The paper presents findings of a research, the goal of which was to evaluate the effectiveness of state measures aimed to promote the birth rate in Russia and its northern regions, their impact on the increase of birth rate intensity in 2007-2015. The relevance of choosing these territories for the study is determined by the high migration outflow of the population of reproductive age in most regions of the North, aggravating the growing adverse effects that the changes in the age structure have on fertility, the changes are due to the country's demographic history. Scientific novelty of the study consists in the fact that it determines the total demographic effect of current measures of pro-family policy, evaluates the results of enhancing its activities and makes a contribution to scientific studies on identifying the impact of the behavioral component of fertility on the formation of the final number of children in the family in terms of government incentives provided to families...
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Impact of remittances on the trade balance in the countries of the South Asian region
Статья научная
The present study empirically examines the relationship between trade balance and remittances in five selected countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Besides the joint impact of remittances on the trade balance, the individual impact of remittances on Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Nepal and comparison among these countries are also provided. To conduct this analysis, annual data of 20 years from 1991-2019 were collected from World Bank and Penn World database. Pooled OLS, random effect, and fixed models are used to estimate the joint impact of remittances. Further, dummy variable interaction models are used to estimate the individual impact of remittances on five South Asian countries. Our panel regression analysis confirms the increasing impact of remittances on the trade deficit of five South Asian countries by triggering import-led consumption expenditures. Other control variables, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, investment, and human capital have a significantly negative impact on the trade balance. On the other hand, rent has a significant positive impact on the trade balance of SAARC countries. Dummy variable interaction model confirms the negative impact of remittances on India, Nepal, and Pakistan, while remittances have an insignificant impact on Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The paper provides various policy impactions for SAARC region.
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Статья научная
The state and possibilities of use of hunting resources are of great cultural and socio-economic importance for the indigenous population of the North; they also affect the safety of people living in sparsely populated Arctic territories. The paper considers the historical experience of organization and legal regulation of hunting as a type of economic activity in the Arkhangelsk Governorate [ Arkhangelskaya guberniya ] in the 19th - early 20th century; it also provides the quantitative and cost characteristics of hunting resources. We present the results of sociological surveys of hunters from Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Arkhangelsk Oblast conducted in 2015-2016, the data on the population status of game animals hunted by people in the Arctic territories. Hunting in the Arkhangelsk Governorate was most developed in Pinezhsky, Pechorsky, and Mezensky counties [ uezdy ]; there was almost no government intervention in this activity until the end of the 19th century. It was assumed that a small number of hunters (less than 3% of the population of the Governorate) can not cause irreparable damage to the population of game animals...
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Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer market in Russia and China
Статья научная
For many decades, Russia and China have been major trade and economic partners, whose close and effective cooperation is of particular importance in the context of Western sanctions. New strategic guidelines of Russian-Chinese relations determine the scientific relevance and practical significance of studying the consumer markets of the two countries. It is especially important to study the features and trends of changes in consumer markets in the conditions of the epidemiological crisis. The purpose of this work is to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on four areas of the consumer market in China and the Russian Federation: e-commerce market, luxury goods market, food delivery market and online education market. Studying the impact of crisis processes on the consumer markets of individual countries seems to be very relevant for the development of effective measures to overcome similar situations in the future. To achieve the research goal, we use methods of analysis and synthesis of statistical data. The research results prove that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant negative impact on the consumer market in Russia and China. A large-scale epidemiological crisis has led to deterioration in the material well-being and consumer opportunities of both countries. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has also led to a number of positive changes in certain sectors of the consumer market in Russia and China: further rapid development of distance trading, growth of the goods delivery market, acceleration of the trend of online education development. Such positive trends will contribute to further information and innovation development, economic growth of Russia and China. The scientific novelty of the research is to identify the consumer market areas that have felt the greatest impact of the pandemic in terms of accelerating their development, as well as a comparative analysis of these areas in cross-country comparison.
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Статья научная
The development of digital technology causes rapid transformation in the sphere of work and the emergence of new forms and formats of employment. The ongoing changes bring to the fore the issue of work-family balance, because it is necessary to promote the well-being of employees with children. The aim of our research is to study the impact of the digitalization of employment on the work-children balance. The empirical base includes findings of a survey of working age women and men, with work experience, living in the territory of the Russian Federation, and raising children under the age of 14 (N = 954); the survey was conducted in May - June 2023. Based on the data obtained, we reveal differences in satisfaction ratings among respondents who intensively use information and communication technologies and do not intensively use/do not use them in their work; the latter have a higher average satisfaction rate concerning the time spent on parental responsibilities. This indicates the ambiguous impact of information and communication technologies on the satisfaction rate regarding the time spent on parenthood. Second, there is no direct relationship between the amount of time parents spend with their children and subjective satisfaction with the time spent on parenthood; this is in line with the results of other studies. Third, we reveal a contradiction between a high assessment of the expected positive effect of a hybrid work format on the time spent on children and low satisfaction regarding the time spent on children in women that work under a hybrid employment scheme. The revealed contradiction indicates difficulties in the practical implementation of this work format, which significantly reduce women’s satisfaction regarding the time spent on parenthood. The determinants of this effect require further verification with the use of qualitative techniques.
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Статья научная
The article presents the analysis and indicates the extent of the problem concerning territorial differentiation of the quality and security of the rural population employment, as compared with the city residents of Perm Krai by indicators of wages and unemployment level. The impact of territorial differentiation of the quality and security of employment on the shrinkage in Perm Krai rural areas is revealed. Territorial shrinkage is characterized by rural population decrease, higher employee attrition rate, as compared to cities, reduction in the number of workers per one pensioner, deterioration of agricultural material and technical base; crop areas reduction.
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Impact of trade mega-formats in the APR on Russian export
Статья научная
He purpose of the research is a quantitative assessment of indirect effects from the Russian export because Russia does not participate in the APR mega-formats. We show that modern processes of trade and economic cooperation in the APR are manifested in the creation of trade mega-formats: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership were signed, and the expansion of the CPTPP for the USA, as well as the creation of a free trade zone within the APEC, was considered a promising area. The authors prove that the lack of motivation of the Russian side in joining the APR trade mega-formats is caused by a low level of tariffs on Russian commodities from the APR countries, and the risks of Russian goods replacement are not considered. After evaluating indirect effects, it was defined that there might be a slight negative impact on Russian export due to Russia not participating in the APR mega-formats. On the other hand, the competitiveness of Russian products on the market of the sub-global region may decrease in the following product groups: food products, goods of chemical industry, metallurgy, and mechanical engineering. The obtained estimates suggest that the integration processes in the Asia-Pacific Region will indirectly contribute to the weakening of the product diversification of Russian exports on the market of the sub-global region by shifting it toward a single-product raw material specialization. We show in this work that the formation of relationships of the APR mega-formats with third countries, depending on their closed or open configuration, will have a fundamental importance for Russia. The creation of closed trade blocks in the APR might mean an active substitution of Russian products and decline of the amounts of Russia’s exports on the APR market. However, if open trade blocks are created, then the discrimination toward Russian goods would not be that clear.
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Статья научная
The main goal of this paper is to examine the impact of on the performed impairment of assets on the market valuation of companies listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange in the conditions of an economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The research undertaken in the project helps recognize the correct behaviour (in the short term) of the issuers' shares in a period of uncertainty and increased volatility of securities prices on capital markets. To this purpose, was adopted a research hypothesis indicating that disclosure of information about the impairment of the company's assets results in negative abnormal returns of their share prices, which was dominant position in the research of previous authors. The research undertaken in the article helps identify the rules of behaviour whether the reaction of investors on updating the company's assets in crisis conditions is different than in times of prosperity. The main hypothesis will be verified using the event study methodology. The author intends to verify whether the level of abnormal returns occurring on the days adjacent to the announcement regarding impairment of assets is significantly different from the average level. The subject of the article will be all reports on impairment of assets submitted by 140 biggest issuers listed on the main trading floor in WSE during the Covid-19 pandemic (year 2020). The effect of the article will be interpretation of certain relationships that characterize the stock exchange in Poland as well as an indication of the importance of the occurrence of impairment of issuers' assets for their share prices in economic crisis situation.
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