Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1692
Financial well-being of older adults: theoretical and methodological aspects and assessment issues
Статья научная
The tasks to promote active ageing and a prosperous old age, laid down in Russia’s program and strategic documents (federal project “The Older Generation”, “Strategy of Actions in the Interests of Citizens of the Older Generation in the Russian Federation until 2025”, etc.), can be addressed effectively only if financial well-being has been achieved. The aim of the study is to reveal theoretical and methodological foundations of the financial well-being of older adults, reflected in foreign and domestic scientific discourse. The article presents a theoretical and methodological framework for the financial well-being of older adults, and provides its preliminary assessment in the case of older adults in the conditions of Russian reality. As a result of a critical analysis of the scientific literature, we show that the concept “financial well-being” is commonly used in foreign scientific discourse, but it is not widespread in Russian research. We highlight general aspects of financial well-being: good current financial situation; financial stability in relation to shocks; confidence in the security of the future. We put forward a set of indicators to assess the financial well-being of older adults based on data from the All-Russian Survey of Consumer Finance - 2022 (a survey conducted by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia). We apply sociological analysis methods (descriptive analysis, frequency distribution analysis using combination tables). It is revealed that older adults feel more prepared for possible financial shocks, which is facilitated by the orientation toward savings practices and low credit activity. We identify the following sore spots: older adults are more concerned about the likelihood of money shortage, and they also do not feel confident in the sufficient financial security of their future. At the end of the article, we outline promising areas for research.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
Considering the problem of finding ways of significant life changes for the better as fundamental, the author focuses on the research subjects. He compares the guidelines of two important discourses: “Where is Russia going?..” and “Modernization of the Russian economy”, as well as the nature of their dialogue with the federal authorities. Using the results of these comparisons and based on summarizing diagnose assessments of the state of the Russian society produced by Russian scientists in 2017, the author proposes a methodology for a qualitatively new content of respondents’ surveys: it is important not to be limited by finding out the opinions about population’s pressing issues, but to identify the population’s preferences about significant life changes for the better. For this purpose, the author proposes an algorithm of successive stages of surveys. Being aware of the complex objectives and debatable proposals, the author considers it appropriate to announce a competition for best proposals to identify significant life changes for the better preferred by the population.
Бесплатно
Fiscal federalism and inter-budget relations in the Russian Federation
Статья научная
The article deals with the essence of fiscal federalism and its model in the world. Characterized by features inter-budget relations in Russia, their forms and methods of implementation. Represents an acting mechanism of formation and management of income and expenditure budgets of various levels and their relationship. Particularly detailed analysis of the problem of budgetary provision of local budgets, the ways of solving them. It is proved that the basis for the rationalization of inter-budget relations and real fiscal federalism is the progressive development of its economy, increase their own taxable capacity. The successful solution of problems of fiscal federalism, the author believes, depends largely on preserving the integrity of the Russian state, increasing its credibility in the international arena.
Бесплатно
Fish industry of the Murmansk oblast in the system of the regional economic safety
Статья научная
The value of the fish industry of the European North of the Russian Federation in the system of food and economic safety of the region and the country is considered. The structure and the condition of the fishing fleet, fishery economic efficiency, and the potential factors of the development (the raw base, the technical policy, normative legal provisioning) are analyzed. The directions of the increase of the efficiency of the regional fish industry’s functioning are proved.
Бесплатно
Fishery complex in the system of Russia's food security
Статья научная
Theoretical aspects of food safety and role of fish industry in food safety security are considered. Causes of small fish products sales domestically produced on Russian market are examined. Factors which keep back the fish products consumption are estimated.
Бесплатно
Fixed capital formation effectiveness in Russia: trends and scenarios
Статья научная
Designing new methods and approaches to assessing the results of long-term economic development is a relevant task within the framework of analyzing and forecasting the development of industries and industry complexes. The paper substantiates an approach to studying the process of capital formation through the full-fledged use of available resources. Based on the data on the dynamics of metal consumption, we show features of gross fixed capital formation. We consider changes in Russia's economic development and highlight three periods in the accumulation of the country's wealth, estimated by the indicators of the metal stock (the crisis situation of the 1990s, the recovery GDP growth in 2000-2013, and the formation of a new mechanism for the reproduction of fixed assets starting in 2014). We define prerequisites for the formation of imbalances in the investment and stock process related to the increase in the country's wealth. We show that restrictions on attracting resources from abroad and the lack of a reliable domestic investment base determine the key problems of the domestic capital formation mechanism. We arrange countries of the world in groups according to capital formation indicators, including the availability of resources for capital formation and the availability of favorable conditions for the commercial use of investments. We substantiate the need to increase the effectiveness of capital formation management in Russia. We emphasize that investments in the national investment complex can become effective only if the current criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of economic activity are revised. We provide an overview of the positive and negative scenarios for the development of the domestic capital formation system in the medium term. State management of the investment and stock process is singled out as a necessary element of a positive medium-term forecast
Бесплатно
Focus on finances as a factor of Russia's national vulnerability in the 21st century
Статья научная
The research, presented in the current article, is a logical continuation of a previous “Editorial” article, which was about the soullessness of the ruling elites, analysis of its reasons and consequences. This article focuses on common global consequences of liberal capitalistic ideology actively implemented by the ruling elites. The authors explore its historic purpose and tools, use the facts, and analyze results shown in specific changes of social assessments and attitudes. In the context of a comparative analysis of dynamics of public opinion in the key countries of Western Europe, we describe the trends of subjective assessments of the population in the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that many negative consequences of the purposeful policy of global elites (in particular, ones related to the destruction of the system of traditional values and norms) exist in Russia, which requires increased attention and active state policy in matters related to the development of ideology and overcoming the soullessness of the ruling elites as a natural attribute of the historical period of postmodernity. The study is based on respected international sources of official statistical information (World Bank) and sociological measurements (European Social Survey, Edeleman Trust Barometer), as well as on the results of Russian and regional public opinion polls.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the topical issues of trade and economic integration of the Northwestern Federal District of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. It studies the trends in the development of trade and economic activity in their regions. The article describes the mathematical tool of gravity modelling of the trade and economic cooperation, approved by the materials of statistical reporting of NWFD regions and the Republic of Belarus. A forecast of development of trade and economic activity in these regions has been elaborated.
Бесплатно
Forecasting of indicators of the region's socio-economic development
Статья научная
The article analyses the statistical data on the volumes of investment in different spheres of the socio-economic system of the Udmurt Republic in the 1996-2010 period. The values of production and human capitals are predicted for the next five years with regard to the forecasting of the dynamics of investment volume based on economic and mathematical models. The article resolves the task of modeling dynamics of the gross regional product in the Udmurt Republic by applying production function constructed on the basis of statistical methods of correlation and regression analysis, and the issue concerning the forecasting of the dynamics of production and human capitals.
Бесплатно
Forecasting the dissemination of norms and values in Russia with the use of an agent-based approach
Статья научная
The paper presents an agent-based model for dissemination of norms and values and the experience of its use for forecasting the dynamics of opinions in Russian society, taking into account the influence of digital media and deterioration of the economic situation in the country. The chosen modeling method helps to predict the dynamics of population, economy and political system, taking into account their mutual influence. Each agent is assigned an appropriate set of norms and values and a model is designed showing how they change under the influence of the agent’s standard of living, communication with acquaintances and impact of the media. The model we present differs from its known analogues due to its connection with the model of artificial society, reflecting the population and economy of Russia on the basis of current data. The behavior of agents in the model is based on the concept of a social agent, which includes the principles of dividing agents into clusters of social activity, a way to represent the norms and values of the agent in the form of a set of options with varying frequency and the function of constructing subjective assessments of the standard of living based on the comparison of the agent with its environment. Information content of the model is based on the analysis of the results of the seventh wave of the World Values Survey concerning the relationship between the income level, assessment of the work of the political system and the norms of social responsibility, which showed a significant degree of correlation between incomes, political assessments and the norms of residents. On the basis of the developed model, we carried out scenario calculations so as to build a forecast of the likely dynamics of public sentiment in various economic conditions. The results obtained indicate a rather significant relationship between the economic situation and the satisfaction of residents with the actions of the government. In the developed model, the change in a person’s beliefs is limited to their inner world; therefore, implementing new aspirations in attempts to change one’s own life or society is an important direction for future research.
Бесплатно
Forecasting the effects of raising the retirement age on Russia's demographic structure
Статья научная
The paper assesses the possibility of raising the retirement age to mitigate the effects of ageing on the pension system of Russia. The authors make demographic forecasts based on hypotheses about the presence of global demographic trends in population reproduction and manifestations of development features specific for Russia. The demographic forecast is based on the age shifting method according to three scenarios. The forecast takes into account the provisions of a draft law that has already been approved and that provides for a gradual increase in age limit for civil servants, both men and women, to 65 years (by six months each year). The following assumption is made for the purpose of studying the effects of raising the retirement age to 65 years for all categories of Russian citizens. The increase in the retirement age begins in 2016 at the rate of 6 months per year, and it will end for men in 2026 and for women - in 2036. Thus, by 2036, the official retirement age will be 65 years for both sexes...
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The article investigates uneven spatial development of livestock industry in Russia’s regions. It is caused by many factors, including the volume of attracted investments, human resources; and it endangers the food security of territories. The purpose of the study is to assess spatial heterogeneity in the development of the livestock industry in the Sverdlovsk Oblast. To achieve the goal, we set the following tasks: to conduct a spatial autocorrelation analysis of the development of the livestock industry in Sverdlovsk Oblast municipal entities, investigate the impact of human resources investments and costs on the development of spatial heterogeneity in the region’s livestock industry, assess the spatial effects of livestock industry development in territorial systems, design forecast scenarios for its development in the region’s municipal entities up to 2025. Having reviewed theoretical and methodological approaches to assessing spatial heterogeneity at the regional and municipal levels we find out that Russian and foreign researchers use a variety of methods. Their application does not contribute to the comprehensive assessment of spatial heterogeneity in the development of the livestock industry. To solve the problem, we propose a methodological approach, whose novelty consists in the comprehensive application of spatial autocorrelation analysis methods using various matrices of spatial weights, regression analysis using panel data and ARIMA modeling which, when combined, make it possible to determine the impact of investments and other factors on heterogeneity in the development of the livestock industry in the region’s municipalities and design a system of various forecast scenarios. The regression models we constructed have confirmed the differentiated impact of investments and human resources on spatial heterogeneity in the livestock sector in the Sverdlovsk Oblast and outlined the prospects for its development.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The article forecasts indicators of scientific, technological and innovative development of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation and regional institutions of innovative development using recurrent neural networks. Forecasting using neural networks has become widespread and is a relevant, high-quality and reliable way of making economic forecasts and is applicable within the framework of socio-economic analysis, including analysis ofterritories. However, when studying the scientific literature, it was not possible to find works in which the scientific, technological and innovative development of regions was predicted using the neural network method, which determines the scientific novelty of the research being carried out. The relevance of the study is due to the increasing attention on the part of regional authorities to the scientific, technological and innovative development of territories and the need to form state programs of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the field of scientific and technological development. The research hypothesis is that forecasting indicators of scientific, technological and innovative development of the region and the activities of regional institutions for innovative development using recurrent neural networks will give more accurate results than using the linear regression method, moving average model or the Holt - Winters method. As part of the study, a recurrent neural network model was formed based on a system ofinterconnection ofindicators ofscientific, technological and innovative development of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation and regional institutions of innovative development. As a result, a forecast of indicators of scientific, technological and innovative development of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation and the activities of regional institutions for innovative development was obtained, which correlates with the real situation in this area.
Бесплатно
Foreign direct investment in the economy of the Russian Far East
Статья научная
The article considers the trends and patterns of foreign direct investment in the Russian economy in the context of mega-regions, the features of attracting and spatial distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the regions of the Far East. The purpose for the study is to assess the economic effects generated by foreign investment in the Far East. The hypothesis is the assumption that attracting foreign investment in the region is to a greater extent a tool to maximize the economy of scale, rather than eliminating financial imbalances. The initial data of the study are statistical materials of the Central Bank, as well as macroeconomic indicators published by federal and regional statistical agencies. The methodological framework of the study is the concept of modern general theory of foreign direct investment, in particular the concept of spatial distribution of foreign investment. The article presents the assessment results of spatial performance and modification of the spatial-sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Far East, and the macroeconomic effects of their application...
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the urgent research issues on the integration and modelling of foreign economic activity from the little-studied aspect of the system of relations “country - region of another country”. The authors examine the background and the tendencies of development of trade and economic integration of the NWFD regions and the Republic of Belarus. The need for use of mathematic tools to model and to predict the integration processes is founded in the article. The authors describe the mathematic apparatus of gravitation, econometric and inter-branch models. In the range of gravitation model the researchers make regression equations to predict the foreign trade turnover and export of the Republic of Belarus to the Russian Federation.
Бесплатно
Foreign experience of hydrocarbon resources development at the arctic continental shelf
Статья научная
The article examines the experience of hydrocarbon resources of the Arctic zone of the world's leading oil and gas powers in order to identify effective socio-economic approaches to the development of hydrocarbon deposits in the public interest and possible future use in modern Russian conditions. A comparative analysis of natural resources development models by different states and conclusions about their effectiveness are given. The authors discuss aspects of an effective industrial policy in the upstream oil and gas sector in the region, taking into account a wide range of socio-economic problems in various stages of deposits development. The article also addresses the problems of relationships between the state and the oil and gas business, formation of an effective strategy for managing the development of hydrocarbon resources.
Бесплатно
Foreign experience of technology transfer and its application in Russia
Статья научная
The article provides an overview of foreign experience in technology transfer and commercialization. It describes the peculiarities and drawbacks of organizing technology transfer in Russia. In addition, the article proposes the directions for applying foreign experience in the country’s innovation system.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
Nowadays Russian Federation is one of the world leaders according to the number of international labor migrants it receives. Russia is among the top ten countries according to the volume of remittances from foreign workers to their countries of origin. However, it is impossible to provide an exact statistical estimate for the total number of foreign citizens working in the Russian labor market since there continue to exist certain legal regimes within the post-Soviet area concerning entry into Russia and staying there. The present research analyzes a methodology for an indirect estimate of the overall number of foreign workers in the Russian labor market. The methodology is based on the data on money transfers to migrants' countries of origin, on the estimate of their income in Russia and on the structure of their usage. The research reveals that according to the “medium scenario” in 2017 there were about 7.2 million foreigners working in Russia, and only 2.9 million of them worked legally. The following conclusion can be made: about 60% of foreign workers in Russia are not included in the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia and the General Administration for Migration Issues under the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation. The estimate of the foreign workers' contribution to Russian GDP is based on the overall number of foreign labor migrants in Russia. According to our estimate, their contribution was around 6.4% in 2017.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The paper gives substantiation for the implementation of cluster policy in Russia as the key way of increasing the competitiveness of the country. The analysis of foreign and domestic experience of cluster formation was carried out. The concept of cluster supporting framework of the regions of Russia, considering clusters as a node element of the economy and promoting the binding of disparate elements of economic space, is proposed. The algorithm for implementation of cluster policy in the regions of Russia is proposed. The experience of its practical implementation in the Republic of Bashkortostan is given.
Бесплатно
