Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1728
Features of the standard of living and labor situation in households with children and without them
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to improve public policy in order to address current issues concerning Russians’ standard of living and quality of life in the context of new risks posed by the socio-economic impact of a growing external pressure on the country. The article presents findings of a study that identifies the features of the standard of living of households with children (target group) and without children (control group), and considers the role of the labor situation of household members. The standard of living of households was considered through its modeling by per capita money income and by quality of housing conditions that were assessed with the help of social standards. We reveal that the most common models for households with children are those of low and lowest standard of living, which are less typical for households without children. Households with children are much more likely, in comparison to households without children, to face the most vulnerable situation in terms of income and quality of housing conditions. The article considers the labor situation of economically active members of households with different levels of per capita money income. We reveal the differences in the level of employment of persons aged 15 years old and older, with different income levels, living in households with and without children, depending on the age group. We assess the level of income from main employment, which ensures the positioning of households by standard of living (taking into account the actual dependent burden) and reveal that the presence of children increases the risks of households entering the lower strata by standard of living. We consider main reasons for the unemployment of persons aged 15 years old and older (by age group) living in households with children with different income levels and also determine “reserves” for increasing the level of employment in households with children and, as a consequence, their income level.
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Fertility in the North of Russia: Spatial and Ethnic Patterns
Статья научная
The North of Russia comprises cities and districts that differ in fertility and reproductive behavior; this fact makes the territory an interesting object for demographic research. The paper considers fertility in the North of Russia at the regional and municipal levels, both in conditional and in real generations. Such an approach helps to identify spatial and ethnic patterns. Fertility analysis by region and ethnicity has shown a rapid decrease in differences between Russia’s constituent entities, which indicates the accelerated completion of the demographic transition in territories with high fertility. At the same time, reproductive behavior patterns within regions are becoming more diverse, which is a sign of the second demographic transition. Indicators above the level of simple reproduction are preserved only among Tuvans and some small-numbered indigenous peoples of the North. At the municipal level, fertility in conditional generations was estimated using data from the population censuses of 2010 and 2021, and in real generations by calculating the total fertility rate using the indirect standardization method for 2015-2023. We identified groups of territories in the North of Russia with high and low fertility rates. It is shown that the median fertility rate in the northern territories has decreased significantly in recent years. A correlation analysis of fertility rates and the ethnic composition of the population revealed that fertility in a municipality is determined primarily by the proportion of titular ethnic groups and small-numbered indigenous peoples of the North, and among young cohorts - only by the proportion of small-numbered peoples. The results obtained are of interest for developing demographic policy measures and making forecasts at the regional and municipal levels. In further research, it is recommended to pay attention to the dependence of fertility on the development of the social infrastructure in the North of Russia
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Статья научная
Non-ferrous metallurgy has a rather high significance for the Russian economy. The industry creates jobs and demand for highly qualified specialists providing a fairly high salary relative to other industries. Non-ferrous metallurgy is not inferior in importance to ferrous metallurgy. The industry’s products act as indispensable components in the production of electronics and household appliances, batteries, lighting systems, machine tools and equipment, jewelry, various kinds of wires and cables, kitchen appliances, plumbing and other household items. Non-ferrous metallurgy assumes a higher price for final products relative to ferrous metallurgy and lower production volumes. The purpose of the research is to analyze the key financial and economic indicators of the development of foreign trade activities of non-ferrous metallurgy in Russia, as well as to predict further directions for the development of trade turnover in the prevailing new economic conditions. The object of the study is foreign trade relations arising between the Russian Federation and foreign countries regarding the export and import of non-ferrous metals. We use methods such as structural (weight) and dynamic analysis, comparison, systematization, and forecasting. The information base is statistical data on the export-import activities of Russia’s non-ferrous metallurgy; Russian and foreign literature on the industry development; Rosstat statistics, as well as information from the annual reports of the largest Russian non-ferrous metallurgy corporations PJSC Rusal and PJSC Nornickel.
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Financial balances of territories as a tool for modeling the effectiveness of spatial development
Статья научная
The spatial development of the Russian Federation has been actively discussed virtually since the formation of modern statehood. The institutionalization of the problem of single-industry towns in 2014 and the adoption of the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation in 2019 gave a new impetus to such discussions. However, despite a significant amount of research, the issues concerning the effectiveness of spatial development decisions at the level of macro-regions, urban agglomerations and single-industry towns have not been sufficiently worked out; this fact determines the relevance of the work. The aim of our study is to substantiate the tools for assessing the effectiveness of spatial development for various territorial entities. The novelty of the research lies in the methodological substantiation of the use of the System of National Accounts (SNA) for the formation of financial balances of territories at various levels, which in the future can become a single tool for modeling the effectiveness of spatial development. It is proved that the most accurate tool to determine the relationships between regions and evaluate the effectiveness of decisions for macroregions can be the creation of interregional input-output tables, for urban agglomerations the development of individual and combined financial balances of municipalities, for single-industry towns the development of tables for the formation, redistribution and use of financial resources, with the allocation of channels for the outflow/inflow of flows. The article, providing an example of the practical application of the proposed approaches, presents the financial balances of several single-industry towns of the Sverdlovsk Oblast for 2020 in the context of institutional sectors of the economy (“Corporations”, “Public Administration”, “Households”). According to the analysis of the data obtained, we see that the construction of financial balances made it possible to clearly identify the existing imbalances in the economic development of the territories: the Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company (UGMK) has a great influence on financial flows in Urban Okrug Verkhnyaya Pyshma; financial resources are being actively withdrawn from the Kamensk-Uralsky Urban Okrug by corporations and the population; financial balances in Severourasky Urban Okrug show a classic picture of a single-industry town with crisis phenomena. The findings of the study can be used to develop a full-fledged system for modeling the effects of spatial development of various territories of the Russian Federation.
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Financial behavior of the population during the 2014-2015 economic crisis
Статья научная
The article considers the changes in people’s financial behavior that occurred under the influence of the “structural recession” of the Russian economy. Any changes in the economic behavior of the population in the context of its individual types are caused by transformations taking place in society, proceed from people’s adaptation to new conditions and affect the duration and consequences of crisis processes. The goal of our study is to identify changes in people’s financial behavior caused by the economic crisis of 2014-2015. The paper uses official statistical data and materials of national and regional sociological surveys. We analyze manifestations of the 2014-2015 crisis, such as the changes in the level and use of monetary incomes, bank deposits and loan debt of the population. On the basis of regional sociological studies we reveal the changes in people’s financial behavior. We find out that during the crisis processes the growth rates of bank deposits and loan debt decreased, the structure of savings and credit purposes changed, and the violations in the regularity of loan payments became more frequent. In particular, at the regional level (in the Vologda Oblast), the share of inhabitants with savings has decreased significantly, the share of those who are saving money to use when they retire and the share of car loans have decreased; the share of savings for improving housing conditions, for recreation and travel, as well as the share of loans for urgent needs and unforeseen expenses have increased; the number of cases of overdue monthly payments on loans has increased. At the same time, some components of financial behavior turned out to be insensitive to the changing economic situation, among them - the reasons for refusal to form savings, the most common forms of accumulation, and the criteria for choosing a bank. We conclude that there are no mass deviant practices in the financial behavior of the population of the region in the crisis period; in general, people adapt to the changes that take place in the socio-economic situation. We recommend using the results of the monitoring studies of financial and other types of economic behavior in the activities of regional authorities in order to obtain timely information on current changes and make adequate management decisions.
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Статья научная
Power consumption causes economic development and becomes the main pollution source, including air pollution. Power consumption appreciably responds to the economic fluctuation. Different historic crises’ gravity and abrupt economic recession show up in power consumption and hotbed gases’ emission. In this article the analysis of the relations among the financial crisis, economic development, power-saving and the emission’s reduction has been carried out and it shows that the financial crisis will inevitably lead to the power consumption’s reduction and to the emission’s reduction. But the crisis is a short term phenomenon, and the economic growth takes time. As in any developing country, in China the pressure of the reduction of hotbed gases’ emission is intensifying. As for power-saving and emission’s reduction, t is necessary to discuss these phenomena in details; and it is also necessary to develop the low-carbon way, not to ignore it
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Financial instability in the region: assessment methods and elimination tools
Статья научная
Financial instability is one of the most important factors in the level and sustainability of socio-economic development of territories. However, at present, from the viewpoint of methodology, this concept is developed insufficiently in relation to the elimination and forecasting of economic and financial crisis threats. This problem is especially acute at the regional level. For its solution the article proposes a methodology for assessing the risks of financial instability; it helps to determine the indicators of the current state and development of regional finances that are most liable to volatility in the context of the main institutional sectors (government, business, households); the methodology also helps to forecast the probable maximum change in the indicators in the future with the use of the VaR methodology. The calculations carried out according to the proposed methodology on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan show that regional finances are most vulnerable to fiscal risk. As a tool to eliminate budget risk the authors give several suggestions on improving the efficiency of interbudgetary transfers that make it possible to increase the degree of financial autonomy of the regions and to act as an effective incentive to their innovation development.
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Financial possibilities for providing expenditure obligations of local self-government
Статья научная
The article assesses financial provision of expenditure obligations of local self-government. Problems requiring urgent solutions and including decrease of financial autonomy of municipalities and increasing their dependency on decisions and financial support from upper level budgets are revealed.
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Financial provision of investment processes in the regions of the North-West federal district
Статья научная
The presence of various potentialities in achieving economic growth and stirring up investment processes at the regional level is complicated by spatial inequality of financial resources distribution. This study has revealed epy specificity of forming fixed capital financing structure influencing the differentiation level in economic development of regions. Solution of the problem requires improvement of the financial system functioning. Information basis of the study includes statistical collections, published by the Federal statistic service. Methods of statistical analysis are used for the results substantiation.
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Статья научная
The aim of the work is comparative analysis of the problems and methodological approaches to assessing financial effectiveness of measures implemented in the Far East in the context of regional preferential policy in outstripping development territories (ODTs) and in the Free Port of Vladivostok (FPV). We analyze the experience of organizing preferential regimes in ODTs and FPV, substantiate the reasons for difficulties in assessing the implementation of financial measures of preferential regimes related to the political specifics of the implementation of the latter; difficulties in clustering the objects of analysis due to a considerable differentiation of Far Eastern municipalities; difficulties related to the assessment horizon; as well as current problems concerning the substantiation of indicators to comprehensively assess the results of stimulating municipal development. We show how local budgets are affected financially by the extension of local preferential regimes to the entire territory of the Far East and the prerequisites for the emergence of a “tax trap” as a result. Using the example of the Khabarovsk Territory, we assess shortfall in local budget revenues caused by a significant increase in tax benefits. We reveal the consequences of a situation when the volume of tax benefits provided is not limited by the volume of investments in projects. We consider measures to dampen the consequences of the “tax trap” for regional budgets in the case of expanding the zone of local preferential regimes to the entire Far East. We propose to allocate tax benefits to a resident in the form of a money grant, provided that the resident fulfills its obligations to increase employment and develop the real sector of the region's economy, and the total amount of benefits is limited by the amount of investments made by the resident.
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Financial results of the local self-government reform. Experience of the regions of the Far East
Статья научная
The article examines the problems and main results of the 30-year reform of local selfgovernment, concerning the positioning of the institution of LSG in the “vertical of power”, the definition of the structure of powers and rights, and the formation of the financial base of LSG. The purpose of the work is to determine the basic principles and features of the development of the LSG institute and its financial interaction with the state on the example of municipalities of a large macro-region, which is the Russian Far East. In order to identify statistical patterns, general scientific methods were used based on official data from the Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance, Rosstat, regional authorities and local authorities of the Far Eastern constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The analysis of the dynamics of changes in the spatial classification of municipalities of the Far East over the years of reform, as well as the state and conditions for the formation of budgets of municipal districts and urban districts of the Far Eastern constituent entities of the Federation for 2011-2019 is carried out. It is shown that in the Far East the situation with the financial security of local self-government is determined not so much by local or Far Eastern, as by all-Russian tendencies. Revealed the presence of a serious stagnation of revenues and expenditure of the municipalities of the Far East; the prevalence of low financial independence of the budgets of the civil society and, especially, of the municipal districts; a decrease in the possibility of free disposal of budgetary resources for municipalities of the Far East, since during the analyzed period the share of grants-in-aid in the revenues of the budgets of municipal districts decreased by 8.6 percentage points, up to 15.9%, and in the revenues of urban districts - to 1.8%, with an increasing share of subventions and subsidies in budget revenues. In general, over the years of reform, the legislative strengthening of the powers and rights of LSG, declared at the federal level, has not received adequate financial support in the region. Proposals for improving the financial component of the LSG reform in the framework of the evolutionary approach have been substantiated. It is shown that constitutional changes, while remaining formally neutral to LSGs, will require clarification of federal legislation for their implementation, which can give rise to a number of latent threats and undermine the principle of organizational isolation and financial independence of LSG bodies. The novelty of the research task is actualized by considering the aforementioned range of issues in comparison of federal trends and the situation in the macroregion under the conditions of changes in the Constitution of the Russian Federation and an increasing understanding of the need to strengthen the financial base of LSG. The materials of the article can be used in the educational sphere and in the activities of public authorities and LSG.
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Financial situation in regional energy supply
Статья научная
It is important to monitor the financial condition of energy supply organizations in regional management and development of energy infrastructure. This condition depends on economic factors, tariff regulation and budget subsidies. The article presents indicators of aggregated financial statistics on energy supply in the regions of Russia's European North. For the purpose of comparative analysis, the author formed a comprehensive indicator of financial stability and evaluated trends in the dynamics of past due debt and profitability. The analysis shows the following sectoral and regional characteristics: the financial situation in the electric power sector is relatively stable, but it is unsatisfactory in heat supply; the increase in negative trends, such as the decrease in repayment ability, low and negative profitability, and the accumulation of considerable arrears. Financial instability becomes a system-wide characteristic of heat supply. It is necessary to introduce a multi-step process of financial recovery of the industry as a whole...
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Financial tools to develop social entrepreneurship
Статья научная
Social entrepreneurship, being a relatively new activity for the Russian economy, requires the development of conditions and support mechanisms; this helps address social issues in society and also stimulates civic activity in this regard. Our paper classifies financial tools according to types of investors with different financial requirements, and analyzes the availability of these tools for the development of social entrepreneurship. We place special emphasis on mezzanine financing, social impact bonds, impact investing, and hybrid financing. In order to determine the availability of financial tools that are used to develop social entrepreneurship in Russia, we analyze financial statements of social entrepreneurs included in the catalog, formed by the Fund “Our Future”. The analysis used the coefficients of autonomy, current liquidity, profit (EBIT) and its growth rate in 2017. We have revealed that only nine of the considered organizations, which is less than 22%, meet the stated requirements and can apply for loans. Thus, we show that it is necessary to develop investment tools with lower financial requirements. Theoretical importance of our research findings consists in the fact that they expand theoretical and methodological provisions for studying social entrepreneurship in terms of systematization of financial tools used in international practice. The findings of our research are relevant in the practical aspect as well, because they help identify low availability of financial tools used in the Russian practice. The obtained data can be used to elaborate a strategy for development of this type of activity at different levels of management.
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Financial well-being of older adults: theoretical and methodological aspects and assessment issues
Статья научная
The tasks to promote active ageing and a prosperous old age, laid down in Russia’s program and strategic documents (federal project “The Older Generation”, “Strategy of Actions in the Interests of Citizens of the Older Generation in the Russian Federation until 2025”, etc.), can be addressed effectively only if financial well-being has been achieved. The aim of the study is to reveal theoretical and methodological foundations of the financial well-being of older adults, reflected in foreign and domestic scientific discourse. The article presents a theoretical and methodological framework for the financial well-being of older adults, and provides its preliminary assessment in the case of older adults in the conditions of Russian reality. As a result of a critical analysis of the scientific literature, we show that the concept “financial well-being” is commonly used in foreign scientific discourse, but it is not widespread in Russian research. We highlight general aspects of financial well-being: good current financial situation; financial stability in relation to shocks; confidence in the security of the future. We put forward a set of indicators to assess the financial well-being of older adults based on data from the All-Russian Survey of Consumer Finance - 2022 (a survey conducted by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia). We apply sociological analysis methods (descriptive analysis, frequency distribution analysis using combination tables). It is revealed that older adults feel more prepared for possible financial shocks, which is facilitated by the orientation toward savings practices and low credit activity. We identify the following sore spots: older adults are more concerned about the likelihood of money shortage, and they also do not feel confident in the sufficient financial security of their future. At the end of the article, we outline promising areas for research.
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Статья научная
Considering the problem of finding ways of significant life changes for the better as fundamental, the author focuses on the research subjects. He compares the guidelines of two important discourses: “Where is Russia going?..” and “Modernization of the Russian economy”, as well as the nature of their dialogue with the federal authorities. Using the results of these comparisons and based on summarizing diagnose assessments of the state of the Russian society produced by Russian scientists in 2017, the author proposes a methodology for a qualitatively new content of respondents’ surveys: it is important not to be limited by finding out the opinions about population’s pressing issues, but to identify the population’s preferences about significant life changes for the better. For this purpose, the author proposes an algorithm of successive stages of surveys. Being aware of the complex objectives and debatable proposals, the author considers it appropriate to announce a competition for best proposals to identify significant life changes for the better preferred by the population.
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Fiscal federalism and inter-budget relations in the Russian Federation
Статья научная
The article deals with the essence of fiscal federalism and its model in the world. Characterized by features inter-budget relations in Russia, their forms and methods of implementation. Represents an acting mechanism of formation and management of income and expenditure budgets of various levels and their relationship. Particularly detailed analysis of the problem of budgetary provision of local budgets, the ways of solving them. It is proved that the basis for the rationalization of inter-budget relations and real fiscal federalism is the progressive development of its economy, increase their own taxable capacity. The successful solution of problems of fiscal federalism, the author believes, depends largely on preserving the integrity of the Russian state, increasing its credibility in the international arena.
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Fish industry of the Murmansk oblast in the system of the regional economic safety
Статья научная
The value of the fish industry of the European North of the Russian Federation in the system of food and economic safety of the region and the country is considered. The structure and the condition of the fishing fleet, fishery economic efficiency, and the potential factors of the development (the raw base, the technical policy, normative legal provisioning) are analyzed. The directions of the increase of the efficiency of the regional fish industry’s functioning are proved.
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Fishery complex in the system of Russia's food security
Статья научная
Theoretical aspects of food safety and role of fish industry in food safety security are considered. Causes of small fish products sales domestically produced on Russian market are examined. Factors which keep back the fish products consumption are estimated.
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Fixed capital formation effectiveness in Russia: trends and scenarios
Статья научная
Designing new methods and approaches to assessing the results of long-term economic development is a relevant task within the framework of analyzing and forecasting the development of industries and industry complexes. The paper substantiates an approach to studying the process of capital formation through the full-fledged use of available resources. Based on the data on the dynamics of metal consumption, we show features of gross fixed capital formation. We consider changes in Russia's economic development and highlight three periods in the accumulation of the country's wealth, estimated by the indicators of the metal stock (the crisis situation of the 1990s, the recovery GDP growth in 2000-2013, and the formation of a new mechanism for the reproduction of fixed assets starting in 2014). We define prerequisites for the formation of imbalances in the investment and stock process related to the increase in the country's wealth. We show that restrictions on attracting resources from abroad and the lack of a reliable domestic investment base determine the key problems of the domestic capital formation mechanism. We arrange countries of the world in groups according to capital formation indicators, including the availability of resources for capital formation and the availability of favorable conditions for the commercial use of investments. We substantiate the need to increase the effectiveness of capital formation management in Russia. We emphasize that investments in the national investment complex can become effective only if the current criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of economic activity are revised. We provide an overview of the positive and negative scenarios for the development of the domestic capital formation system in the medium term. State management of the investment and stock process is singled out as a necessary element of a positive medium-term forecast
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Focus on finances as a factor of Russia's national vulnerability in the 21st century
Статья научная
The research, presented in the current article, is a logical continuation of a previous “Editorial” article, which was about the soullessness of the ruling elites, analysis of its reasons and consequences. This article focuses on common global consequences of liberal capitalistic ideology actively implemented by the ruling elites. The authors explore its historic purpose and tools, use the facts, and analyze results shown in specific changes of social assessments and attitudes. In the context of a comparative analysis of dynamics of public opinion in the key countries of Western Europe, we describe the trends of subjective assessments of the population in the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that many negative consequences of the purposeful policy of global elites (in particular, ones related to the destruction of the system of traditional values and norms) exist in Russia, which requires increased attention and active state policy in matters related to the development of ideology and overcoming the soullessness of the ruling elites as a natural attribute of the historical period of postmodernity. The study is based on respected international sources of official statistical information (World Bank) and sociological measurements (European Social Survey, Edeleman Trust Barometer), as well as on the results of Russian and regional public opinion polls.
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