Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1785
Статья научная
We substantiate areas of improving the tools designed to assess the quality of socio-economic development strategies for large cities. In particular, we developed and tested a methodology for assessing the quality of socio-economic development strategies for large cities based on the principles of strategic planning and social corporatism. At the first stage, it involves analyzing the dynamics of key indicators of socio-economic development in large cities, reflecting the growth rates of the number of city residents (“Citizens” indicator, provides a comprehensive assessment of the dynamics of development and targets of the urban community); the number of registered enterprises and organizations in the city (“Business” indicator, provides a comprehensive assessment of the dynamics of development and targets of the entrepreneurial community); the volume of housing construction (“Municipality” indicator, provides a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of municipal management through land use, interaction with residents and construction companies), as well as the faith of people and investors in the city and its future. At the second stage, we assess the use of five main mechanisms of social corporatism in the development strategies of large cities via contextual analysis: project management, urban sociology, territorial public self-government, municipal-private partnership, participatory budgeting. At each stage, we arrange large cities into groups in accordance with the criteria under consideration. At the final stage, we design a “Strategy - Development” matrix and put forward proposals for finalizing the strategies of large cities, taking into account their features. The approbation of the methodology has shown the heterogeneity of the quality of strategic planning and the dynamics of socio-economic development in Russia’s large cities. This may indicate that they are all at different stages of development of social corporatism. Therefore, it is necessary to use different approaches, tools and directions when developing city strategies, taking into account their characteristics and potential.
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Expansion of subcultural movements as a result of social disunity among the young population
Статья научная
This article deals with the problem concerning the estrangement of Russian and Ukrainian society from the fundamental institutions of socialization. The acute issue of subcultural movements among the post-Soviet youth population is discussed as one of the negative consequences of this process. The article presents the main reasons for the spread of informal youth associations, as well as the mechanisms of subcultural attitudes’ influence on the younger generation. The basic directions of preventing the negative impact of subcultures are determined.
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Experience in agent-based modeling of interregional value chains
Статья научная
Solving the problem of implementing powerful socio-economic breakthrough in Russia requires the formulation and implementation of the latest practices for the development of the corporate sector, civil society, and state institutions. In theory, these practices should be the product of some innovative activity in the management sphere. However, world experience shows that initiatives correlating with the current development paradigm and are its logical continuation can provide no less effective results. In particular, we are talking about the Russian policy of industrial diversification and import substitution. The country is definitely making progress in these areas, but it is too early to talk about confident results. Meanwhile, a reasonable and, most important solution of the issue, which is not contrary to the interests of the elite, has been in the focus of the scientific community for several years, this is the value chains. Handled properly, they can act as a driver for the development of territories, business, and the social sphere. The purpose of the research is the formulation and testing the tools for value chains modeling. In turn, the novelty of the tools lies in the possibility of taking into account the interregional factor of interaction and the availability of functionality for the implementation of variable calculations of the developing phenomena in the economy. The model peculiarity is provided by the synthesis of methods of intersectoral balance and agent-based modeling which, according to other research teams, provides greater accuracy and realism of modeling. In the course of the study, the authors analyze domestic and foreign experience in designing value chains, and present their characteristics in the regional context. The researchers represent a consequence assessment associated with stimulating consumer demand and the expected effect that can be caused by the value chains value chains development.
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Experience in project management of socio-economic processes at the municipal level of government
Статья научная
Project management of socio-economic processes is of considerable strategic importance, since it is an effective tool for solving problems in conditions of limited resources and instability in the market economy. The use of project management at the municipal level in the implementation of urban development strategies has the following advantages: high flexibility in the formation of a list of projects; ability to choose forms, methods, resources and participants in the implementation of projects; harmonizing interests, organizing constructive dialogue and pooling the resources of various social groups (government, business, society), etc. In this regard, the aim of the work is to investigate the use of project management in the activities of public authorities and its development to achieve the goals of socio-economic development of territories. We consider major theoretical approaches to project management and present a general outline of the system of levels and tools related to the strategic management of territory’s development. We analyze the experience of project management in Vologda and prove the effectiveness of its use in the implementation of territory’s development strategy. In addition, we propose main directions for the application of advanced management technologies - the implementation of project management based on ESG principles. It includes addressing environmental issues (E - environmental), social responsibility (S - social) and personnel governance (G - governance). Analyzing theoretical foundations and Russian experience, we identify directions for the development of project management based on ESG principles, reveal current problems and propose a set of measures for further improvement of project work in the field of public administration in order to address strategic tasks of territorial development. The information base includes the works of Russian and foreign scientists, project management specialists, and data from official websites of Russia’s constituent entities. We use the following methods: analysis, comparison, generalization, sampling and grouping. The scientific provisions set out in the article may be useful to government officials and researchers interested in the implementation and application of project management.
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Experience in supporting large families: an overview of successful practices
Статья научная
A new protracted wave of depopulation in Russia, caused by birth rate decline and high mortality, poses serious risks to the labor potential, economic and social development of the country. In recent years, the government has been taking active measures to raise birth rate. Taking into account the fact that the growth potential of birth rate lies in an increase in the proportion of large families, it is necessary to update effective mechanisms for regulating the number of children in families. In this regard, it is interesting to study the tools for supporting families with children implemented by foreign governments in the context of the recorded population fertility dynamics. The aim of this study is to review government measures to stimulate fertility and support large families in countries around the world. The information was derived from electronic databases of Russian and international statistics, websites of foreign governments, and scientific literature on the research topic. In the course of the work we used general scientific and empirical research methods. The analysis showed that in most countries there are no measures to support large families as a special category, and demographic policy is limited to providing women with short-term paid maternity leave and monthly childcare benefits. Most of the aid goes to poor families. Some countries provide tax and pension benefits for large families, and childcare allowances that increase with the birth of a subsequent child. The demographic and family policy being implemented in Russia is focused to a greater extent on families with children, including those with many children, which has the status of state priority. The following formats of support for families with children are of practical interest from the point of view of potential application in Russia: Polish programs “500+”, “Big family card”, “Mother 4+”; programs implemented in some oil and gas exporting countries: “Marriage bonus (loan)”, allocation of housing to a young family, opening an account for a newborn and its regular replenishment, tuition fees; “maternity leave” for men and the opportunity to use parental leave for eight years in the Nordic countries; partial or full compensation for babysitting services, including for close relatives caring for a child; payment for preschool educational institutions, vacation clubs, etc. in a number of European countries. Practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of taking into account international experience in the development of federal and regional programs to support potential and actual families with many children
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Extended forecast of economic results: instrumental potential of the fuzzy sets theory
Статья научная
The article proposes an approach based on the fuzzy sets theory, in which the uncertainty, being originally a factor, hindering the adoption of grounded long-term management decisions, becomes a tool for their development. At that, the uncertainty of various data, characterizing the economic indicators of the process under study in the long run, is expressed by a single indicator using the modified method of the hierarchy analysis.
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Статья научная
The article discusses extra-role performance behavior of teachers and their identification with the teaching staff under the conditions of modernization of the education system and optimization of the network of educational institutions in Russia. The author provides a review of the literature on the subject and specifies the concept of extra-role performance behavior of teachers, what factors cause or promote such behavior, and what it means to be a “good teacher”. Understanding the importance of extra-role performance behavior as an essential component of labor efficiency will help educational organizations’ heads to use it in the recruitment, selection and certification of teachers, and in the development of personnel reserve. The author selects three factors predicting extra-role performance behavior: work experience, the school as an organization, and identification with the school staff. Regression models based on data on school teachers of Vologda (N = 78.6 schools), explained extra-role performance behavior associated with a change in the functioning of the organization (Model 2...
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Facilities of energy security projection of the northern region
Статья научная
In the article the significance and current preconditions for sustainable development of the Russian northern cities are considered and analyzed. Necessity of strategic management methods use for achievement of sustainable development goals by the cities is proved. Problems of perspective estimation of energy security are designated in the paper. Using hierarchies analysis method is proposed for making such estimation; the method allows to rank alternative scenarios of social-economic development of a region by criterion of achievement energy security. The results of the first attempt to apply the method to Murmansk oblast are given. Restrictions of using hierarchies analysis method and the necessity to combine it with indicative analysis method are specified.
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Статья научная
The goal of the paper is to assess the possible impact of international labor immigration on the prevalence of the following diseases which are dangerous to others: HIV, active tuberculosis, syphilis, drug addiction, enterobiosis, pediculosis, acute and chronic viral hepatitis B and C in Russia’s regions. We analyze the works on the impact of migration on the health of the population of the host territory. The main research methods that we use include econometric and correlation analysis. We construct panel models for each of the diseases. The models test various socio-economic indicators (including education level, cash income, housing improvement and the incidence of alcoholism), as well as climatic, geographical and demographic indicators. In order to calculate the indicators characterizing the level of labor immigration in the regions we use Rosstat data on the legal employment of foreign citizens in the regions of the Russian Federation and on the number of foreign citizens who arrived in Russia...
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Factors of migration of the northern regions’ population
Статья научная
In the article migration factors and their influence on the process of the population formation in the northern regions are considered, their classification is given; it is probable to operate the population migration through influencing controlled factors such as legal, economic, organizational and informational ones; the reasons of the population migration in 2005 and in 2008 are represented.
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Factors of social investment dynamics at the enterprise
Статья научная
Corporate social responsibility is the best form of interaction between business and society. Based on the materials of the Mordovia's state unitary enterprise “Teplichnoye”, the article deals with the factors that influence the dynamics of social investment in the company, their impact on the production level and its efficiency.
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Статья научная
Citizens’ participation in managing the country’s development contributes to the formation of civil society and acts as a key element of democracy. In Russia, where three-quarters of the population are urban residents, it is especially important to study these issues in relation to cities, so as to understand the processes taking place in society and work out effective strategies for its development. The aim of the work is to consider ways in which residents of cities in the European North of Russia participate in state and municipal administration and to identify its features in settlements of different sizes. Based on the data of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation we analyze the turnout of residents of 68 cities of the European North of Russia for the presidential election of the Russian Federation (2018) and the election to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (2021). We also assess the level of voter support provided to President Vladimir Putin and the United Russia party. It is revealed that the electoral activity of residents is determined to a greater extent by the peculiarities of the structure of the city’s economy rather than the size of the city. Based on the analysis of the results of voting for the choice of urban improvement objects, it was found that residents of sparsely populated cities are more motivated and involved in these processes. We also find out that territorial public self-government is most actively used in small, rather than large, cities. In order to assess the informal mechanisms of citizens’ participation, we analyze the availability of official profiles of local self-government bodies on VKontakte social media and the number of their subscribers, as well as data on the number of participants in informal urban communities. We have revealed that this method of communication with the authorities is mostly used by residents of small settlements. Scientific significance of the study lies in determining the features of dissemination of various mechanisms of civic participation, depending on the type of city. Practical significance lies in the possibility of using our findings by the authorities in improving the policy of involving citizens in management processes.
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Статья научная
Study and monitoring of the current condition of Russian single-industry towns are among the most relevant issues of the state’s socio-economic policy: especially within the implementation of national priority projects and the strategy of the spatial development. The purpose of the article is to define specifics of the socio-economic development of single-industry towns in the Republic of Bashkortostan on the basis of complex analysis of empirical data using sociological set of instruments. To achieve this goal, we conducted the analysis of the current state of social and labor sphere, sociological and statistical indicators of population’s living standards. We also studied demographic processes and trends of the Republic’s single-industry towns. The research of six single-industry towns (Blagoveshchensk, Uchaly, Neftekamsk, Belebey, Beloretsk, Kumertau) allowed us to define features of each territory and to rank them according to the level of the socio-economic welfare. The results differed from characteristics (categories) given in the latest list of Russian single-industry towns provided by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. According to updated data, only Neftekamsk could be called a town with the stable socio-economic situation. Blagoveshchensk, Uchaly, Belebey are at the risk of the socio-economic situation worsening. Beloretsk and Kumertau are among towns with the most difficult socio-economic conditions. Towns with high business potential were identified (Belebey, Beloretsk, Blagoveshchensk). However, this potential is usually implemented in the informal sector of the economy, which significantly worsenspopulation’ssocialwell-being. Businesspotentialofothertowns(Uchaly, Neftekamsk, Kumertau) is very low. In Uchaly and Kumertau, there are almost no employment alternatives: it defines citizens’ heavy dependence on the town-forming enterprise. At the same time, municipal authorities do not have an opportunity to change the socio-economic situation in towns. Usage of sociological instruments in the course of the research allowed us to reveal internal factors and features of single-industry towns’ development, which are manifested in the population’s life attitudes and social well-being, but they are not reflected by statistical indicators. Developed methodology might be used for complex studies of other Russian single-industry towns and the search for efficient strategy of their modernization.
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Features of the standard of living and labor situation in households with children and without them
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to improve public policy in order to address current issues concerning Russians’ standard of living and quality of life in the context of new risks posed by the socio-economic impact of a growing external pressure on the country. The article presents findings of a study that identifies the features of the standard of living of households with children (target group) and without children (control group), and considers the role of the labor situation of household members. The standard of living of households was considered through its modeling by per capita money income and by quality of housing conditions that were assessed with the help of social standards. We reveal that the most common models for households with children are those of low and lowest standard of living, which are less typical for households without children. Households with children are much more likely, in comparison to households without children, to face the most vulnerable situation in terms of income and quality of housing conditions. The article considers the labor situation of economically active members of households with different levels of per capita money income. We reveal the differences in the level of employment of persons aged 15 years old and older, with different income levels, living in households with and without children, depending on the age group. We assess the level of income from main employment, which ensures the positioning of households by standard of living (taking into account the actual dependent burden) and reveal that the presence of children increases the risks of households entering the lower strata by standard of living. We consider main reasons for the unemployment of persons aged 15 years old and older (by age group) living in households with children with different income levels and also determine “reserves” for increasing the level of employment in households with children and, as a consequence, their income level.
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Fertility in the North of Russia: Spatial and Ethnic Patterns
Статья научная
The North of Russia comprises cities and districts that differ in fertility and reproductive behavior; this fact makes the territory an interesting object for demographic research. The paper considers fertility in the North of Russia at the regional and municipal levels, both in conditional and in real generations. Such an approach helps to identify spatial and ethnic patterns. Fertility analysis by region and ethnicity has shown a rapid decrease in differences between Russia’s constituent entities, which indicates the accelerated completion of the demographic transition in territories with high fertility. At the same time, reproductive behavior patterns within regions are becoming more diverse, which is a sign of the second demographic transition. Indicators above the level of simple reproduction are preserved only among Tuvans and some small-numbered indigenous peoples of the North. At the municipal level, fertility in conditional generations was estimated using data from the population censuses of 2010 and 2021, and in real generations by calculating the total fertility rate using the indirect standardization method for 2015-2023. We identified groups of territories in the North of Russia with high and low fertility rates. It is shown that the median fertility rate in the northern territories has decreased significantly in recent years. A correlation analysis of fertility rates and the ethnic composition of the population revealed that fertility in a municipality is determined primarily by the proportion of titular ethnic groups and small-numbered indigenous peoples of the North, and among young cohorts - only by the proportion of small-numbered peoples. The results obtained are of interest for developing demographic policy measures and making forecasts at the regional and municipal levels. In further research, it is recommended to pay attention to the dependence of fertility on the development of the social infrastructure in the North of Russia
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Статья научная
Non-ferrous metallurgy has a rather high significance for the Russian economy. The industry creates jobs and demand for highly qualified specialists providing a fairly high salary relative to other industries. Non-ferrous metallurgy is not inferior in importance to ferrous metallurgy. The industry’s products act as indispensable components in the production of electronics and household appliances, batteries, lighting systems, machine tools and equipment, jewelry, various kinds of wires and cables, kitchen appliances, plumbing and other household items. Non-ferrous metallurgy assumes a higher price for final products relative to ferrous metallurgy and lower production volumes. The purpose of the research is to analyze the key financial and economic indicators of the development of foreign trade activities of non-ferrous metallurgy in Russia, as well as to predict further directions for the development of trade turnover in the prevailing new economic conditions. The object of the study is foreign trade relations arising between the Russian Federation and foreign countries regarding the export and import of non-ferrous metals. We use methods such as structural (weight) and dynamic analysis, comparison, systematization, and forecasting. The information base is statistical data on the export-import activities of Russia’s non-ferrous metallurgy; Russian and foreign literature on the industry development; Rosstat statistics, as well as information from the annual reports of the largest Russian non-ferrous metallurgy corporations PJSC Rusal and PJSC Nornickel.
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Financial balances of territories as a tool for modeling the effectiveness of spatial development
Статья научная
The spatial development of the Russian Federation has been actively discussed virtually since the formation of modern statehood. The institutionalization of the problem of single-industry towns in 2014 and the adoption of the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation in 2019 gave a new impetus to such discussions. However, despite a significant amount of research, the issues concerning the effectiveness of spatial development decisions at the level of macro-regions, urban agglomerations and single-industry towns have not been sufficiently worked out; this fact determines the relevance of the work. The aim of our study is to substantiate the tools for assessing the effectiveness of spatial development for various territorial entities. The novelty of the research lies in the methodological substantiation of the use of the System of National Accounts (SNA) for the formation of financial balances of territories at various levels, which in the future can become a single tool for modeling the effectiveness of spatial development. It is proved that the most accurate tool to determine the relationships between regions and evaluate the effectiveness of decisions for macroregions can be the creation of interregional input-output tables, for urban agglomerations the development of individual and combined financial balances of municipalities, for single-industry towns the development of tables for the formation, redistribution and use of financial resources, with the allocation of channels for the outflow/inflow of flows. The article, providing an example of the practical application of the proposed approaches, presents the financial balances of several single-industry towns of the Sverdlovsk Oblast for 2020 in the context of institutional sectors of the economy (“Corporations”, “Public Administration”, “Households”). According to the analysis of the data obtained, we see that the construction of financial balances made it possible to clearly identify the existing imbalances in the economic development of the territories: the Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company (UGMK) has a great influence on financial flows in Urban Okrug Verkhnyaya Pyshma; financial resources are being actively withdrawn from the Kamensk-Uralsky Urban Okrug by corporations and the population; financial balances in Severourasky Urban Okrug show a classic picture of a single-industry town with crisis phenomena. The findings of the study can be used to develop a full-fledged system for modeling the effects of spatial development of various territories of the Russian Federation.
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Financial behavior of the population during the 2014-2015 economic crisis
Статья научная
The article considers the changes in people’s financial behavior that occurred under the influence of the “structural recession” of the Russian economy. Any changes in the economic behavior of the population in the context of its individual types are caused by transformations taking place in society, proceed from people’s adaptation to new conditions and affect the duration and consequences of crisis processes. The goal of our study is to identify changes in people’s financial behavior caused by the economic crisis of 2014-2015. The paper uses official statistical data and materials of national and regional sociological surveys. We analyze manifestations of the 2014-2015 crisis, such as the changes in the level and use of monetary incomes, bank deposits and loan debt of the population. On the basis of regional sociological studies we reveal the changes in people’s financial behavior. We find out that during the crisis processes the growth rates of bank deposits and loan debt decreased, the structure of savings and credit purposes changed, and the violations in the regularity of loan payments became more frequent. In particular, at the regional level (in the Vologda Oblast), the share of inhabitants with savings has decreased significantly, the share of those who are saving money to use when they retire and the share of car loans have decreased; the share of savings for improving housing conditions, for recreation and travel, as well as the share of loans for urgent needs and unforeseen expenses have increased; the number of cases of overdue monthly payments on loans has increased. At the same time, some components of financial behavior turned out to be insensitive to the changing economic situation, among them - the reasons for refusal to form savings, the most common forms of accumulation, and the criteria for choosing a bank. We conclude that there are no mass deviant practices in the financial behavior of the population of the region in the crisis period; in general, people adapt to the changes that take place in the socio-economic situation. We recommend using the results of the monitoring studies of financial and other types of economic behavior in the activities of regional authorities in order to obtain timely information on current changes and make adequate management decisions.
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Статья научная
Power consumption causes economic development and becomes the main pollution source, including air pollution. Power consumption appreciably responds to the economic fluctuation. Different historic crises’ gravity and abrupt economic recession show up in power consumption and hotbed gases’ emission. In this article the analysis of the relations among the financial crisis, economic development, power-saving and the emission’s reduction has been carried out and it shows that the financial crisis will inevitably lead to the power consumption’s reduction and to the emission’s reduction. But the crisis is a short term phenomenon, and the economic growth takes time. As in any developing country, in China the pressure of the reduction of hotbed gases’ emission is intensifying. As for power-saving and emission’s reduction, t is necessary to discuss these phenomena in details; and it is also necessary to develop the low-carbon way, not to ignore it
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