Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1728
Статья научная
Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization has serious risks for the economy of the Republic of Belarus. This will affect such sectors of the Belarusian economy dominating in exports to Russia as agriculture, machine-building, chemical industry. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a detailed analysis of the rules and regulations that exist in the economy in the nearest future. For this purpose, the methods of harmonization and unification of external economic relations between Belarus and Russia have been developed. The practical application of the developed methods will reveal the non-compliance of them with WTO law enforcement practice, which will give an opportunity to take immediate action to minimize losses in this sphere because of Russia’s accession to WTO.
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Free port of Vladivostok: development conditions, prospects, risks
Статья научная
One of the priority directions of Russia's state policy with regard to territories' development is the development of the Far Eastern region. The free port of Vladivostok is one of the key projects that are currently being implemented in the southern part of Primorsky Krai and they focus on boosting the socio-economic development of Vladivostok city, Primorsky Krai and the Far Eastern region as a whole. The goal of this research is to consider the conceptual issues of the free port of Vladivostok, to outline the conditions and prospects of its operation and identify risks associated with its future development. The article defines the modern concept of “free port”, characterizes historical experience of the “free port” regime in Vladivostok in the end of the 19th century, substantiates the strategic importance of using the free port of Vladivostok as a tool of intensive growth of Russian Far Eastern territories. The article also discloses the essence of the free port of Vladivostok as a means to promote free entrepreneurship, which is used to increase freight traffic through the port of Vladivostok, increase foreign trade, attract new investments, create new industries and develop the port's infrastructure...
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From a Robinson Crusoe economy to a pure exchange economy
Статья научная
The pure exchange model is considered as the first stage of the analysis of a simple exchange economy; at that, the research is based on the patterns of behavior of the “economic man” that were identified while studying the Robinson Crusoe model. The interpretation at this stage of production as an exogenous factor helps to determine in “pure form” the forces leading to the formation of exchange relations, to introduce into analysis and to reveal basic features of the main phenomena and processes in the sphere of circulation. Proceeding from well-known approaches to the impact of redistribution of the initial bundle of goods on the individual well-being of members of society, we pay considerable attention to the difference between the exchange of bundles of goods and the exchange of individual goods, the two possible forms of exchange that implement such redistribution. While studying the market form of exchange, we additionally analyze the known options for achieving general equilibrium - on the basis of equilibrium and a series of non-equilibrium proportions of exchange. We show that due to institutional reasons, competition between the participants of the exchange, as a tool for reducing transaction costs, cannot eliminate the costs completely; therefore, the path of moving toward the contract surface inevitably turns out to be multi-stage, accompanied by the use of non-equilibrium proportions of exchange. But the final (limit) point on this path will necessarily be a point of general equilibrium, and the number of such points that can be reached from the initial position is infinitely large. The latter is explained by the multitude of proportions of exchange that can be used by its participants at each of the nodal points of the path. The paper develops our viewpoint formulated in an earlier publication: the possibility of introducing credit relations into the analysis at this stage is associated with the existence of consumer goods of long-term use. At the same time, only the goods of long-term use can serve as the object of the credit and it is impossible to single out an "interest rate component" in the supplies that ensure the repayment of the credit.
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From regional science to “smart cities”: intellectual legacies and possible ruptures
Статья научная
We have entered the 21st century facing a global trend of massive urbanization leading to an increasing concentration of population in relatively few, large cities. This exacerbates the share of GDP produced in cities (80%). Today, more than 54% of the world population lives in a city and this number will likely increase by the end of this century to 80%. This trend implies a redefinition of what a city, and what an agglomeration, is. There is then no doubt that the city has become the central point in various social sciences and that agglomeration economics have become an important topic in development economics. Smart Cities have become in this context an important topic in Regional science and in applied economics and geography. There is no doubt that the development of new technologies and especially information technologies have created their own issues. Actually, Smart cities are combining a production function and a housing and living environment one. But one can also see “Smart cities” as a new form of the industrial district issue...
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From the demographic dividend to population ageing: world trends in the system-wide transition
Статья научная
In the 21st century, the increasing intensity of quantitative and qualitative demographic changes is becoming one of the most important factors that determine the direction of socio-economic development. Global downward trends in the birth and death rates have created conditions for the demographic system to shift to a new qualitative state. Humanity is at the crossroads of a transition between two phenomena it has not witnessed before: demographic “window” and population ageing. Under the circumstances, the research on the factors and implications of this system-wide transition is becoming increasingly important, because obtaining relevant information about the actual and forecast states of the demographic system is one of the key tasks of strategic planning for sustainable development. In this regard, the goal of the present research is to study the patterns, characteristics and driving forces of transition of the world population from the stage of realization of the demographic dividend to the stage of ageing. In our research we use fundamental works of foreign and domestic scientists and United Nations and World Bank statistics. In the first part of the article we consider approaches to the term “demographic dividend” and its conceptual substantiation, drivers of its formation and options to implement the demographic window. The second part of the paper presents the results of testing the methodology for determining the degree of implementation of the demographic dividend and the transformation of the age structure towards its ageing. We conclude that in the countries that are implementing the catching-up development model (from both the economic and demographic points of view; the “yellow group”) the intensity and depth of the implementation of the demographic dividend is significantly higher than in the countries that have already completed it (mainly developed countries - the “red group”). At the same time we argue that the width of the demographic window of opportunity is directly proportional to the scale of potential impact of population ageing, which inevitably follows the stage of the dividend implementation.
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From “Munich-2007” to “Valdai-2023”: sixteen years that changed Russia and the world
Статья научная
October 5, 2023, at the 20th anniversary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech that many experts believe to be a continuation of what he had said at the Munich Security Conference on February 10, 2007. Over the past 16 years, the key theses that the President voiced in Munich (that “the unipolar world did not take place” and that “Russia is a country with a history that spans more than a thousand years and has practically always used the privilege to carry out an independent foreign policy. We are not going to change this tradition today”) have acquired real outlines and concrete forms. The future of Russia as a sovereign civilization-state, which is part of a multipolar world, has become obvious, natural and inevitable, as the President stated at the Valdai Forum in 2023. As an illustration of this thesis, the article examines in detail the results of the election campaigns that took place in Russia on September 10, 2023 and convincingly confirmed that the majority of voters support the current course of foreign and domestic policy implemented by the head For citation: Ilyin V.A., Morev M.V. (2023). From “Munich 2007” to “Valdai 2023”: Sixteen years that changed Russia and the world. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 16(5), 9-31. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2023.5.89.1 of state. The article presents our calculations based on official data of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; we carry out an in-depth comparative analysis of the results of the regional elections of 2018 and 2022, and analyze voting results in the context of regional centers; we also consider factors that influenced voter turnout. This makes it possible to identify new and more in-depth features of public sentiment, according to which a significant part of voters demands that the current elites (political, economic, cultural) be brought in line with the national socio-political agenda related to the goals of the special military operation and the positioning of Russia as a civilization-state. In general, the analysis has shown that both inside Russia and in the international political arena, there are still a lot of forces desperately clinging to the “old” world order and hindering the natural course of the changes taking place. This suggests that the process of transformation of Russia and the whole world, which in fact began 16 years ago, has not yet been completed and, apparently, this task is postponed for 2024-2032 - the period that may become the next presidential term for Vladimir Putin. At the same time, the successful achievement of all the goals of the special military operation was and remains the main prerequisite for the implementation of Russia’s transformation.
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Functions of small business in the development of the middle class in Russia
Статья научная
As international experience shows, small business performs a significant function in the development of middle class. It is therefore necessary to characterize the state of small business in today’s socio-economic system of Russia, to identify the characteristics of small businesses representatives that identify it with the middle class, to determine the function of small businesses in the development of the middle class, to develop measures to support small businesses. The paper uses the methods of content, structural, functional and stratification analysis, presents the results of expert surveys and sociological studies conducted by domestic scientists and also by the author.
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