Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1785
Статья научная
The paper presents findings of a research, the goal of which was to evaluate the effectiveness of state measures aimed to promote the birth rate in Russia and its northern regions, their impact on the increase of birth rate intensity in 2007-2015. The relevance of choosing these territories for the study is determined by the high migration outflow of the population of reproductive age in most regions of the North, aggravating the growing adverse effects that the changes in the age structure have on fertility, the changes are due to the country's demographic history. Scientific novelty of the study consists in the fact that it determines the total demographic effect of current measures of pro-family policy, evaluates the results of enhancing its activities and makes a contribution to scientific studies on identifying the impact of the behavioral component of fertility on the formation of the final number of children in the family in terms of government incentives provided to families...
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Impact of remittances on the trade balance in the countries of the South Asian region
Статья научная
The present study empirically examines the relationship between trade balance and remittances in five selected countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Besides the joint impact of remittances on the trade balance, the individual impact of remittances on Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Nepal and comparison among these countries are also provided. To conduct this analysis, annual data of 20 years from 1991-2019 were collected from World Bank and Penn World database. Pooled OLS, random effect, and fixed models are used to estimate the joint impact of remittances. Further, dummy variable interaction models are used to estimate the individual impact of remittances on five South Asian countries. Our panel regression analysis confirms the increasing impact of remittances on the trade deficit of five South Asian countries by triggering import-led consumption expenditures. Other control variables, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, investment, and human capital have a significantly negative impact on the trade balance. On the other hand, rent has a significant positive impact on the trade balance of SAARC countries. Dummy variable interaction model confirms the negative impact of remittances on India, Nepal, and Pakistan, while remittances have an insignificant impact on Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The paper provides various policy impactions for SAARC region.
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Статья научная
The state and possibilities of use of hunting resources are of great cultural and socio-economic importance for the indigenous population of the North; they also affect the safety of people living in sparsely populated Arctic territories. The paper considers the historical experience of organization and legal regulation of hunting as a type of economic activity in the Arkhangelsk Governorate [ Arkhangelskaya guberniya ] in the 19th - early 20th century; it also provides the quantitative and cost characteristics of hunting resources. We present the results of sociological surveys of hunters from Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Arkhangelsk Oblast conducted in 2015-2016, the data on the population status of game animals hunted by people in the Arctic territories. Hunting in the Arkhangelsk Governorate was most developed in Pinezhsky, Pechorsky, and Mezensky counties [ uezdy ]; there was almost no government intervention in this activity until the end of the 19th century. It was assumed that a small number of hunters (less than 3% of the population of the Governorate) can not cause irreparable damage to the population of game animals...
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Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer market in Russia and China
Статья научная
For many decades, Russia and China have been major trade and economic partners, whose close and effective cooperation is of particular importance in the context of Western sanctions. New strategic guidelines of Russian-Chinese relations determine the scientific relevance and practical significance of studying the consumer markets of the two countries. It is especially important to study the features and trends of changes in consumer markets in the conditions of the epidemiological crisis. The purpose of this work is to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on four areas of the consumer market in China and the Russian Federation: e-commerce market, luxury goods market, food delivery market and online education market. Studying the impact of crisis processes on the consumer markets of individual countries seems to be very relevant for the development of effective measures to overcome similar situations in the future. To achieve the research goal, we use methods of analysis and synthesis of statistical data. The research results prove that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant negative impact on the consumer market in Russia and China. A large-scale epidemiological crisis has led to deterioration in the material well-being and consumer opportunities of both countries. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has also led to a number of positive changes in certain sectors of the consumer market in Russia and China: further rapid development of distance trading, growth of the goods delivery market, acceleration of the trend of online education development. Such positive trends will contribute to further information and innovation development, economic growth of Russia and China. The scientific novelty of the research is to identify the consumer market areas that have felt the greatest impact of the pandemic in terms of accelerating their development, as well as a comparative analysis of these areas in cross-country comparison.
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Статья научная
The development of digital technology causes rapid transformation in the sphere of work and the emergence of new forms and formats of employment. The ongoing changes bring to the fore the issue of work-family balance, because it is necessary to promote the well-being of employees with children. The aim of our research is to study the impact of the digitalization of employment on the work-children balance. The empirical base includes findings of a survey of working age women and men, with work experience, living in the territory of the Russian Federation, and raising children under the age of 14 (N = 954); the survey was conducted in May - June 2023. Based on the data obtained, we reveal differences in satisfaction ratings among respondents who intensively use information and communication technologies and do not intensively use/do not use them in their work; the latter have a higher average satisfaction rate concerning the time spent on parental responsibilities. This indicates the ambiguous impact of information and communication technologies on the satisfaction rate regarding the time spent on parenthood. Second, there is no direct relationship between the amount of time parents spend with their children and subjective satisfaction with the time spent on parenthood; this is in line with the results of other studies. Third, we reveal a contradiction between a high assessment of the expected positive effect of a hybrid work format on the time spent on children and low satisfaction regarding the time spent on children in women that work under a hybrid employment scheme. The revealed contradiction indicates difficulties in the practical implementation of this work format, which significantly reduce women’s satisfaction regarding the time spent on parenthood. The determinants of this effect require further verification with the use of qualitative techniques.
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Статья научная
The article presents the analysis and indicates the extent of the problem concerning territorial differentiation of the quality and security of the rural population employment, as compared with the city residents of Perm Krai by indicators of wages and unemployment level. The impact of territorial differentiation of the quality and security of employment on the shrinkage in Perm Krai rural areas is revealed. Territorial shrinkage is characterized by rural population decrease, higher employee attrition rate, as compared to cities, reduction in the number of workers per one pensioner, deterioration of agricultural material and technical base; crop areas reduction.
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Impact of trade mega-formats in the APR on Russian export
Статья научная
He purpose of the research is a quantitative assessment of indirect effects from the Russian export because Russia does not participate in the APR mega-formats. We show that modern processes of trade and economic cooperation in the APR are manifested in the creation of trade mega-formats: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership were signed, and the expansion of the CPTPP for the USA, as well as the creation of a free trade zone within the APEC, was considered a promising area. The authors prove that the lack of motivation of the Russian side in joining the APR trade mega-formats is caused by a low level of tariffs on Russian commodities from the APR countries, and the risks of Russian goods replacement are not considered. After evaluating indirect effects, it was defined that there might be a slight negative impact on Russian export due to Russia not participating in the APR mega-formats. On the other hand, the competitiveness of Russian products on the market of the sub-global region may decrease in the following product groups: food products, goods of chemical industry, metallurgy, and mechanical engineering. The obtained estimates suggest that the integration processes in the Asia-Pacific Region will indirectly contribute to the weakening of the product diversification of Russian exports on the market of the sub-global region by shifting it toward a single-product raw material specialization. We show in this work that the formation of relationships of the APR mega-formats with third countries, depending on their closed or open configuration, will have a fundamental importance for Russia. The creation of closed trade blocks in the APR might mean an active substitution of Russian products and decline of the amounts of Russia’s exports on the APR market. However, if open trade blocks are created, then the discrimination toward Russian goods would not be that clear.
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Статья научная
The main goal of this paper is to examine the impact of on the performed impairment of assets on the market valuation of companies listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange in the conditions of an economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The research undertaken in the project helps recognize the correct behaviour (in the short term) of the issuers' shares in a period of uncertainty and increased volatility of securities prices on capital markets. To this purpose, was adopted a research hypothesis indicating that disclosure of information about the impairment of the company's assets results in negative abnormal returns of their share prices, which was dominant position in the research of previous authors. The research undertaken in the article helps identify the rules of behaviour whether the reaction of investors on updating the company's assets in crisis conditions is different than in times of prosperity. The main hypothesis will be verified using the event study methodology. The author intends to verify whether the level of abnormal returns occurring on the days adjacent to the announcement regarding impairment of assets is significantly different from the average level. The subject of the article will be all reports on impairment of assets submitted by 140 biggest issuers listed on the main trading floor in WSE during the Covid-19 pandemic (year 2020). The effect of the article will be interpretation of certain relationships that characterize the stock exchange in Poland as well as an indication of the importance of the occurrence of impairment of issuers' assets for their share prices in economic crisis situation.
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Implementing active aging in the labor sphere (case study of the Republic of Komi)
Статья научная
The goal of this paper is to investigate issues related to active aging and resource potential of the older population in the labor sphere: we assess the level and nature of employment of working pensioners and daily engagement of the unemployed in the conditions of reforming the Russian pension system. This topic is relevant due to Russia’s transition to the Western model of aging and the adoption of a law on raising the retirement age. The sources of information include official statistics and the findings of the sociological research “Problems of the third age” that we conducted in 2013 and 2018. After Russia had suspended the indexation of pensions to working pensioners, it witnessed a sharp decline in employment of old-age pensioners, which led to a decrease in their income level, lower employment potential of people of retirement age and a reduction in the duration of active life. Studies prove that age, education, and the type of locality, as well as gender-specific behavioral strategies in the workplace are among the strongest employment determinants for older people. There is a fairly stable employment structure in the older population: more than 70% retain their current job, more than 20% find unskilled jobs that are usually in demand among pensioners. As the age increases, not only does the share of working pensioners decrease, but also the percentage of those employed in the same workplace as before retirement decreases. Age discrimination typical of the Russian external labor market is duplicated by discrimination in the domestic market. The labor potential of older people is not utilized to its fullest extent: the reserve is more than 10%. People under 65 have a predominant desire to continue working, depending on their health status, working conditions, and the severity of the issue of double employment. In the five years that have passed between the surveys, unemployed elderly people became more engaged in activities beyond their home life; nevertheless, they are still mostly focused on their family and household.
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Implementing workplace innovation across Europe: why, how and what?
Статья научная
Based on a 51-case study research in 10 EU Member States this article demonstrates the implementation of workplace innovation. Why do companies apply workplace innovation and what different strategies can be discerned? How do these companies implement workplace innovation interventions and who are involved in that process? Finally, what types of workplace innovation interventions are being implemented, and what is known about the (expected) effects. The article concludes that successful workplace innovation is interplay of management driven business goals and employee driven quality of work goals. The implication for both companies and policy makers is that constructive cooperation between management and employees is a key success factor for innovation, competitiveness and active jobs. We close by providing policy makers and practitioners with a few suggestions to improve the dissemination and implementation of workplace innovation respectively.
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Implications of precarization in the context of generational groups: direct and indirect effects
Статья научная
The effects of employment precarization are the subject of active discussion in the scientific literature. Despite the novelty of the topic, the negative impact of this process on the labor and daily life has been subject of a large number of works over the previous decade. At the same time, age specifics have not been widely reflected in studies: as a rule, authors focus on the population as a whole or its individual categories, for example, youth. The purpose of the article is to analyze and generalize the existing experience of studying the impact of employment precarization on generational groups of the economically active population. For this purpose, we have examined the situation of young, middle-aged and older workers involved in unstable labor relations. The information base is the Russian and foreign sources of empirical orientation; in the work we have used general scientific methods. The results show that the impact of employment precarization on generational groups has serious specifics. For young people, job instability mainly affects the planning of their own future forcing them to postpone the issues of starting a family and having children, leaving the parental home, etc. Prolonged transition to stable employment harms mental health, which is most pronounced in adulthood, when instability becomes part of everyday life. It can be difficult to get out of the “precarity trap” because low earnings and social insecurity limit the ability to change the current situation. The effects of employment precarization for older people are ambiguous. Even taking into account all the disadvantages of unstable labor relations, having at least some work is often a necessity to maintain a habitual lifestyle. The main limitation of the research is the generalization of information obtained using various conceptual constructions and methodological tools.
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Import of institutions: theoretical aspect and practical experience
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the problem of import of institutions, which is manifested in the form of society's borrowing of traditions, customs, and norms of behavior that developed in a different institutional environment. Such import is quite often accompanied by atrophy, regeneration of institutions and dysfunction of institutional macrostructure. Emerging so-called institutional traps cause serious risks for development of recipient countries. A historical example of the implementation of such risks was an attempt to transplant institutions of orthodox or radical liberalism in post-Soviet countries which expected modernization of their economies but received a diametrically opposite result - the primitivization of structures. An alternative to this course of events could be the usage of social market economy institutions (SME). Since the essence of the SME concept is a combination of market self-regulation mechanisms with a systematic state interventionism, it was possible to carry out a systemic transformation with, first, lower social costs and, second, without total deindustrialization. There is an existing need for a broader perspective on the formation of market equilibrium, which implies the inclusion in a number of independent market entities of the state that seeks to maximize its own function of social utility. It is the only approach that ensures the optimization of modern society's institutional environment in general and criteria for selecting imported institutions in particular. The novelty of the work is the justification of considering the interdependence of an exporting country's institutions, while choosing the most efficient one, and the need to assess consequences of its implementation in a recipient state's institutional environment. The authors conclude that the import of corresponding institutions should be accompanied by a synthesis of “social” and “market”. It could be achieved only with the harmony of complementarity of both these aspects, not with the construction of a hierarchy between them.
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Import substitution as a factor in the development of domestic digital technology
Статья научная
According to global economic development trends, digital technology is a necessary factor in increasing competitiveness, labor productivity, reducing resource costs and optimizing business processes. In Russia, its development is one of the factors that drive the economy. As a result of the changing geopolitical situation, large foreign companies operating in the field ofdigitalization have begun to withdraw from the Russian market since 2022. This has brought to the fore the problem of import substitution (development of own digital and information technology) at the state and corporate level. Addressing the issue of import substitution will not only reduce imports, but also increase the production of high-tech goods and support domestic producers. In this regard, the aim of the study is to identify barriers to and opportunities for import substitution of digital technology in Russia. Based on the systematization and review of scientific works in the field of import substitution, we highlight approaches to its implementation. The article substantiates the need to implement the third approach in the context of Russian reality. We analyze the volume of high-tech exports of Russia as compared to other countries. We assess the high-tech export trajectory pursued by constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the context of commodity groups that promote digitalization. We highlight trends and problems of import substitution in the field of digitalization and investigate support measures and state policy aimed at import substitution in the field of digital technology and developments. As a result of the research, we have designed a toolkit to support the development of domestic digital technology based on import substitution. Using the toolkit helps to present the contribution of economic entities and its specifics in the field of information technology. Proposals have been prepared for the formation of an import substitution strategy in the field of digital technology, taking into account industry specifics. The results of the study can be applied by the state authorities of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the field of digitalization.
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Importance of sociological knowledge at the present stage of development of the Russian society
Статья научная
The article considers the reasons that determine the importance of data obtained in the course of sociological research. The author shows the role of sociological knowledge as one of the key factors in consolidation and development of modern Russian society.
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Статья научная
The article substantiates the necessity to change the role of the state in technological and socio-economic development of the agricultural sector. The author considers the forms and methods of state regulation and analyses the current budget support provided to agriculture; he highlights its drawbacks with regard to sub-arctic and arctic territories of the Republic of Komi. The article shows the influence of state support on the farmers' level of income and identifies modernization risks and threats under Russia's WTO membership. The author proposes measures to improve state support of the agrarian sector and change the adverse conditions of its functioning. He substantiates the approach that helps improve the state regulation of the agrarian sector in the framework of regional and municipal programs for rural development.
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Improvement of the mechanism for the management of innovation activity in the manufacturing industry
Статья научная
The transition of Russia’s economy from raw materials exporting model of development to the innovation model is a national priority, since it contributes to intensive and sustainable economic growth and reduces economic dependence on external markets. GDP growth rate of 75-90% in the developed countries such as the USA, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, and also in the newly industrialized countries of Southeast Asia and China, is achieved due to the “progress of knowledge” - the intellectualization of the main production factors. Due to this fact, the increase in the standard of living in Russia, as well as overcoming its technological and economic lagging behind the more developed countries is possible only on the basis of the increase in productivity, enhancement of Russia’s competitiveness in international markets of innovative products, modernization and sustainable development of industrial enterprises through the creation of new innovation capabilities and the extensive utilization of that which have already been accumulated...
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Статья научная
The emerging imperatives of innovation economic development in Russia determine the content of conceptual and institutional constraints to the development of regional economic systems (RES). They consider the regional planning system as a leading priority in its inseparable unity with modern public administration tasks. However, the practice of development of long-term plans in the RF subjects proves that the innovation challenges of economic policy are not reflected properly in them or they are significantly distorted. The following reasons reduce the effectiveness of modernization processes in the RF subjects and hamper the appropriate reaction of RES on their impact: the lack of coordination between socio-economic and spatial regional plans, the imbalance of interaction between state authorities engaged in long-term planning, the lack of real prerequisites for the implementation of innovation initiatives in the regions. Systematization and analysis of long-term plans make it possible to substantiate the consistency of the spatial approach to regional planning expressed in the dominance of the transformational function that synchronizes the configuration and parameters of RES, and to establish ways to integrate spatial components in the system of regional planning through optimization of its tool support...
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Improving governmental support for the export credit of foreign trade in the Eurasian space
Статья научная
The development of common approaches to the provision of governmental support to export credit within the Eurasian Economic Space streamlines the entry of national producers into foreign markets and the development of foreign trade. The paper aims to justify the need to harmonize the rules according to which the government provides support to foreign trade within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). We analyze principles for determining the minimum rates on export credits (CIRR, Commercial Interest Reference Rates) in national currencies, describe a methodology for determining the value of CIRR and calculating the minimum premium for credit risks adopted by the OECD, and define basic conditions for the provision of related export financing in the OECD. The novelty of our research consists in the fact that we calculate CIRR for EAEU member states in their national currencies in accordance with the provisions of the OECD Arrangement on Export Credits. The calculation technique that we propose contributes to the establishment of harmonized conditions to support the export of industrial products within the EAEU...
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Статья научная
This article examines methodological approaches to studying the socio-economic genotype, as well as practical aspects of its application in the context of regional development. The obtained results demonstrate, for the first time, a stable and statistically significant relationship between the quality of life of the population and the socio-economic genotype within a regional framework. The study identifies three fundamental genes of the socio-economic genotype: production, innovation, and institutional-social, and elucidates their economic nature. The concept of the “genotype core” is refined, defined as the minimal set of indicators sufficient for identifying a region's type. As a result of the research, regions were grouped according to the dominant gene, which revealed stable economic patterns, strengths and weaknesses of different groups, “hidden” regional patterns, and specifics of regional development that impact the population's quality of life. The proposed regional classification is based not on traditional sectoral specialization, but on the identified genetic profile, which is analyzed within the context of quality-of-life quartiles – an approach not previously documented empirically. Statistical analysis using the Chi-square test confirmed a statistically significant relationship between the genotype core and the integral quality of life index. By comparing the genotype map and the quality of life index, it was established that the institutional-social gene contributes the most to a high quality of life, whereas the production gene, without reinforcement from innovation and institutional-social factors, does not lead to increased well-being. The paper concludes by justifying the integration of the socio-economic genotype into regional strategies and monitoring systems for socio-economic programs, thereby expanding the toolkit for governance. The scientific novelty lies in applying a new approach to studying regional development issues, involving the analysis of the simultaneous interaction between the socio-economic genotype and quality of life. The theoretical significance of the work is defined by the development of a conceptual model of the socio-economic genotype, based on a triad of socio-economic genes (production, innovation, and institutional-social) and the subsequent construction of the genotype core using the Frobenius norm applied to indicator matrices as a quantitative assessment of territories’ internal potential. The practical significance stems from the creation of a methodological toolkit that enables more precise and effective development of regional strategies aimed at improving the population's quality of life.
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Improving the system of management of risks of the income base of regions' consolidated budgets
Статья научная
Budgetary risks of the Russian regions have been characterized by a sustained upward trend since the beginning of the 200-2009 crisis. This hinders the achievement of target indicators and fails to provide financial stability and sustainable socio-economic development of territories, which makes it important to search for solutions to the scientific issue of improving the system of management of risks affecting the income base of regions' consolidated budgets. It is necessary that the authorities made timely management decisions aimed at minimizing the impact of negative risk-contributing factors on public finances of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Informational and analytical basis of such operational decisions may include methodological tools of assessment of the impact of budgetary risks on the sustainability of the regional budgets' income base. However, such tool is currently missing. The novelty of the research lies in the fact that the authors have proven that when assessing budgetary risks, principles of comprehensiveness and objectivity need to be complied with, these principles imply the consideration of the risk of failure to perform the budget, the risk of imbalance and the risk expenditure non-implementation in connection with the repayment of the region's debt...
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