Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1728
The formation of digital space at the municipal level: overview of settlements' websites
Статья научная
The formation of digital economy and transition to electronic government impose qualitatively different demands to authorities' presence on the Internet. Local authorities are not an exception here. Due to modest financial capabilities of many municipalities, their websites, objectively, cannot match the level of federal and regional web portals. The necessity to meet modern requirements implies the search for acceptable ways to be present online. The article attempts to determine the current state of spatial distribution of municipal authorities' digital involvement on the settlement level. To achieve it, we revealed the ways of being present on the Internet, checked the availability of connections between websites of municipalities, gathered information characterizing disclosure of information about dynamics of municipal institution development, identified additional Internet communication channels, and built cartograms. The research includes 313 urban and rural settlements in the Republic of Karelia, the Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Leningrad, and Murmansk oblasts. The results of the study indicate that the digital space of this territory at the municipal level is almost completely formed and has a low degree of mutual integration of its Internet resources. It is shown that the most popular way of providing information about the settlement on the Internet - website - is not the best. It is revealed that local governments rarely use social media as an auxiliary or alternative channel of Internet communication with local residents. It is noted that the majority of settlements orientate toward practices used in settlements of their municipal district, while creating and maintaining webpages without borrowing the experience of neighboring districts and regions. The results of this study might be used for qualitative improvement of municipalities' activities conducted online and formation of e-government on regional and municipal levels.
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Статья научная
In the current development conditions, the issue of distributing social functions between the state and a business is the most relevant. There are several institutions through which the state transfers social functions to organizations: social entrepreneurship, nonprofit organizations, and corporate social responsibility. These processes are the most important for the RF Arctic zone, which is resource oriented, and it is characterized by a special vulnerability to technogenic, biogenic, and socio-cultural threats. Mining companies adopt a voluntary social responsibility policy more often than companies from other industries. The results of the analysis of conducted studies show that a little attention is paid to issues of cooperation between socially responsible companies and regional authorities. This work is devoted to studying processes of the formation of mechanisms defining cooperation between socially responsible companies and regional authorities of the RF Arctic zone. Primary and secondary sources of information served as the informational basis. To collect primary data, we used in-depth unstructured interviews. Secondary data sources were official data from government and companies’ websites, legal acts, and internal documentation of companies (annual reports, ordinances, regulations, policies, and reports on sustainable development). Content analysis of strategies, synthesis, and structural approach were used as methods of data interpretation. Access to company’s internal documentation and the lack of updates on government and companies’ official websites were restrictions of the research. Despite the existing bottlenecks in the research, the results are interesting for the further study of the mechanism of influence of business’ social responsibility on the territories’ socio-economic development and actualization of strategies for the Arctic regions’ development.
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Статья научная
The article reveals the content of work conducted through the cooperation of scientists and specialists of both countries to build scientific and technological potential, priority areas of work of mutual interest.
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The genesis and mechanisms to overcome systemic economic crises
Статья научная
The paper aims to look into the origin and nature of global economic crises, the least studied phenomena of the global economic life - the phenomena, the nature of which still has not received a generally accepted explanation in economic science. Market economy has its own laws, the spontaneous nature of which is revealed in times of crises. However, the analysis of global “crisis experience” draws attention to an important feature in the implementation of various forms of crises that remains at all the stages of economic development. Some economic shocks, despite their urgency and scale, gradually give way to recovery and then - to complete recovery. Other end up with weak revival and depression, gradually turning into a new recession. Such crises, depressions, and periods of sluggish economic recovery form the “waves of crisis development” that hold the economy in a depressed condition for a long time. The impact and the consequences of these “waves” of economic shocks that are sequential or overlapping in time go beyond the medium-term economic dynamics...
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The greening of the bio-resource economy of the northern region
Статья научная
The article presents the results of a collaborative study aimed at finding opportunities and limitations for effective use of renewable bio-resources, which are an important part of the resource base of the economy of the Komi Republic. The novelty of the approach to achieving the goal lies in addressing the methodology of greening established as an official course of global sustainable development and gaining momentum in Russia. The logic of the research into modernization of the bio-resource economy of the Northern region corresponded to the traditional scheme, including the understanding of the content, measurement of parameters and areas of development of the process under study, and is reflected in the structure of the article. The research covers the stages of green development, its relations with sustainable development, and approaches to their measurement. Relying on the methodology of green sustainable development for the modernization of bio-resource industries has helped: specify it as environmental modernization aimed at preserving natural capital, improving the environmental quality of life, improving the resource efficiency of economic activity; assess the level of greening of the objects under study and identify the barriers to its increase; justify the areas of conservation and effective use of land, forest and water resources and “greening” the structure of the bio-resource economy of the region...
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The hermeneutic-educational paradigm for a training management in a civic and social sense
Статья научная
The idea that the long-life and long-life learning are preparatory to the civic-political, economic and social development of the present society of knowledge, is now a fact. Nevertheless, in the educational process, today, complaints are still heard about an insufficient ability to interpret the change, to design training programs which can affect the civic education, the sustainable development and the welfare of an area. All that requires a managerial education, based on a hermeneutic-educational paradigm, to optimize the management of public and private educational institutions to capitalize on human resources and to direct them to the acquisition of civic-social skills to use long-life in order to promote social awareness and civic competence. This managerial training will formalize real laboratories of civic-mindedness in public and private educational institutions, it will raise the awareness of cooperative learning, it will activate some practices of responsible citizenship and will urge the civic consciousness in the European dimension...
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The housing policy problems on the local level
Статья научная
The article covers the local government’s capacities and limitations on the matters of forming of its own housing policy in a municipality’s territory. The paper contains the analysis of legislative framework within the scope of which some local authorities may realize their housing policies. It is proved that on the local level especially in Russia’s small towns the local government’s capacities for efficient housing policy are restricted.
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The impact of R&D expenditures on high-tech product exports
Статья научная
Increasing high-tech product exports in international markets to achieve sustainable economic growth goals is considered an important element in every country in the contemporary world, where globalization is experienced at the highest level. Although it is accepted that many factors affect high-tech product exports in the literature, it is emphasized that R&D expenditures have significant effects. In this research, the effect of R&D expenditures on high-tech product exports in 11 emerging market economies in the period of 1996-2018 was examined. In the context of explanatory variables that are thought to have an impact on high-tech product export, exchange rate, foreign demand, economic growth, and foreign direct investments were used in addition to R&D expenditures. To analyze the relationships, panel quantile regression analysis was applied. The results showed that each variable had different effects on high-tech product exports, and it was seen that R&D expenditures had a positive and very strong effect. In addition, it was determined that economic growth and foreign direct investment also had positive and significant effects on high-tech product exports. In the light of the findings, it is of great importance to allocate more share to R&D expenditures to increase high-tech product exports and benefit from international trade markets more effectively, especially in developing countries.
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The impact of employment barriers on the employment characteristics of persons with disabilities
Статья научная
Disability is a complex phenomenon that generates a number of negative socio-economic consequences including working-age population decrease. At the same time, disability is not always accompanied by a complete loss of the ability to work. Usually, persons with disabilities of the second and third groups retain the opportunity to work in the presence of suitable conditions, but in practice the realization of their labor potential is limited by a number of circumstances. The purpose of this work is to substantiate the negative impact of barriers to employment of disabled people on the characteristics of their employment. Based on the statistical data analysis, we have shown a modern socio-demographic portrait of working disabled people, and analyzed the characteristics of their employment and economic activity. We have found that for a long period the highest economic activity was shown by persons with the third disability group. The paper proves that their higher representation in the composition of employed persons with disabilities is due, on the one hand, to less pronounced health disorders and relatively low need to create specialized jobs, and on the other hand, has economic prerequisites. We have shown that the realization of the labor potential of disabled people is not always accompanied by a significant increase in their material well-being. Employment for some disabled people may be a forced step, which confirms the prevalence among them of employment not in their specialty, as well as on the basis of an oral agreement, without official employment. The final part of the article outlines recommendations that can contribute to the fuller realization of the labor potential of disabled people and improve their financial situation.
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Статья научная
Global economic challenges, along with a slowdown in the world economy growth, lead to the need to consider foreign economic activity (FEA) as a factor affecting regional development. Due to non-resource exports, both quantitative (increasing the exports volume, employment, investment inflows, tax base) and qualitative tasks (diversifying the economy, increasing competitiveness and innovation, production of high-value products) are solved. In this regard, a scientifically based assessment of the FEA role in the regional development strategies is relevant which can be the basis for developing a set of mechanisms and tools for the region’s foreign economic development. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the FEA development impact on the regional development by identifying the reflection of its prospects in the development strategies of Russian regions and different countries’ regions. The object of the research is FEA of the selected regions of the Russian Federation, developed countries (Germany, USA), and EAEU countries (Belarus and Kazakhstan). The scientific novelty is to identify the relations between the degree of economic development and FEA countries, and the reflection of promising areas and tools for the FEA development in the development strategies of their regions. The methodological base is represented by the approaches to defining the determinants and principles of FEA support. There were included the following methods: an indicators’ comparative analysis of the economic and FEA development levels of the selected countries and the prospects for the FEA development (in areas, including export of services; non-resource export; export diversification; etc.) in their regions’ strategies. The analysis results confirmed the assumption that the reflection of the directions and tools of FEA development is paid attention to both in developed and developing economies, but different countries have their own specifics. The analysis allows taking into account the experience of developed countries and leading exporters, as well as the EAEU members, when working out individual strategies and program documents of the regions in the FEA field.
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The impact of formal and informal institutions on innovative economic development
Статья научная
Formal institutions are important elements of the institutional structure of the national innovation system. The development of legislative regulation of the Russian innovation system fits within the framework of the administrative state evolution: the growth of the scope of regulation is accompanied by an increase in the number of laws and by-laws. Although the dynamism of formal institutions is an essential condition for adapting to changing environment, it also increases uncertainty and therefore has a negative impact on actors. The analysis of the functioning of formal institutions can be conducted from two perspectives: deductive and inductive. The deductive approach is based on the analysis of the legislative regulation-associated costs and is close to the new institutional economics tradition. The inductive approach, which is used in this paper, follows original institutionalism and narrative economics scholarly tradition. The following problems associated with the functioning of formal institutions have been highlighted in the analysis of narratives about the Russian innovation system: the lack of the necessary legislation, non-complementarity and inconsistency of laws and by-laws, the imperfection of existing legislation, lack of real support for innovations in the formal creation of relevant legal acts, funds and organizations, etc. An econometric modeling of formal and informal institutions influence on the innovative development of the economy has been carried out. Significant variables have been identified including the general indicators of formal institutions and social capital. It leads to the conclusion that the improvement of formal institutions is necessary for the innovative activity development, and high social capital contributes to building trust and, therefore, promotes knowledge sharing and cooperation, which are crucial for innovation initiation.
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Статья научная
The aim of the study is to assess the impact of geographical factors on trade in the Asia-Pacific region. We show that physical distance is the key parameter in assessing the influence of geographical factors on trade within the framework of gravity dependence. The estimates obtained confirm the validity of the hypothesis concerning a long-term reduction in the negative impact of physical distance calculated in various ways on trade in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating the invariance in the choice of values of this parameter to determine the general trend of the influence of geographical factors on commodity exchange in the subglobal region. It is determined that the use of an arithmetic mean physical distance is more acceptable for obtaining correct estimates of the influence of geographical factors on trade in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of compliance with formal criteria for gravitational modeling. The negative impact of physical distance on trade in the Asia-Pacific region has decreased by almost 13% by 2021 compared to 1993, indicating a high intensity of commodity exchange in the subglobal region. The estimates obtained confirm the assumption that the land border has a positive impact on trade turnover in the Asia-Pacific region, which increased by 56% in 1993-2021. We find that the presence of a land border contributed to the expansion of trade between border economies in comparison with other countries of the Asia-Pacific region by 208.3% in 2021. The assessment shows the absence of a statistically significant impact of other factors - the colonial past and linguistic community - on trade in the Asia-Pacific region; this indicates the leveling of ties formed in the past due to the dominance of gravitational attraction between economies in terms of reducing barriers in interactions between them. It is shown that against the background of a decrease in comparative transport costs in the Asia-Pacific region, the current sanctions against Russia are able to limit the geographical distribution of Russian exports, reducing it to the neighborhood markets of the subglobal region, where the Russian economy will experience an increasing gravitational pull from China.
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The impact of institutional factors on economic dynamics in the regions
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the problem of combining institutional and economic features in regional research and forecasting. We substantiate that the importance of institutional factors, including those in the regional context, manifests itself under significant differences in the institutional conditions for business that make it possible to receive stable institutional rent; this leads to the stratification of business by levels of alpha, beta and gamma business. The object of the study is top large business in the region. The distribution of major global and federal companies in the context of regions, as well as the presence of an established group of leaders in the regional economy, requires their separate monitoring and forecasting. We propose our own approach to determining the features of consolidation of large business. We show that the range of dispersion of their levels among regions and over time is significant and can be tens of percent and/or percentage points, which urges researchers to focus on these indicators. By comparing the features of consolidation of large business in the regions and using the constructed quantitative estimates, we substantiate the typology of methods (models) of economic growth in regions, depending on the presence or absence of major global, federal, and regional companies in them and their role in regional economy. Theoretical significance of this approach consists in combining the institutional analysis of the architecture of regional markets with the cost and physical aspects of the analysis; this will help improve the quality of diagnostics of regional and interregional problems and the validity of forecasts. Practical significance is determined by the possibilities of taking into account the architecture of regional markets in regional economic policy.
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Статья научная
The dynamics of the financial market depends on the expectations of investors, which are largely determined by economic and political events. To form investment strategies, it is important to understand which events described in the news may affect changes in the value of assets. The purpose of this work is to identify the topics of political news that affect the profitability of shares of Russian companies, and to compare the predictive power of news from Russian and foreign sources. This study investigates the relationship between political news about Russia, obtained from domestic (“Interfax”) and foreign (“New York Times”) sources, and the stock returns of 193 Russian companies over the period from September 1, 2021 to August 31, 2023. There were 30 political dictionaries from each source identified using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, and the differences in the highlighted political themes were noted. Time-series models were used to test hypotheses about the impact of political news on the stock prices of Russian companies. The study demonstrates that the Russian stock market’s dynamics are impacted by news from various sources. Specifically, political dictionaries derived from foreign sources enhance the return predictions for the stocks of 142 Russian companies, whereas those from domestic sources improve the forecasts for 146 ones. Nevertheless, models incorporating political news from domestic sources yield higher-quality return forecasts. Additionally, using the Random Forest algorithm, it is demonstrated that the domestic media’s interpretation of events, which are covered in both Russian and foreign news, exerts a more substantial influence on the domestic stock market. Furthermore, models that integrate political dictionaries from both sources exhibit superior quality compared to those that rely on news from a single source. Based on the results obtained, it is demonstrated that incorporating political news into investment decisions enables investors to construct stock portfolios with higher returns.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the research topic is due to the growing impact of precarity on the quality of employment and standard of living among generational groups of economically active population. The opportunities and threats of current employment associated with standard of living may be manifested differently in these generational groups, especially among representatives of the middle generation. Information base of the study is compiled on basis of representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of HSE (RLMS-HSE) for 2021. A sample has formed among employed and unemployed people of the middle generation in age from 36 years up to retirement age. The results obtained denote that the presence of a high level of education and specialized ICT skills enables qualified representatives of the middle generation to ensure sustainable employment and minimize precarity risks. In general, a higher level of ICT skills increases the possibilities of the middle generation to apply their present labor capacities in the labor market. It was discovered that precarious employment is found not only in poor population. It is common among all social groups according to living standards, while it is most evident among low-income households of middle generation workers with per capita incomes of 1-2 subsistence minimums. Taking into account the position of middle-generation people in employment, their qualification and educational characteristics, as well as level of ICT skills, this research has produced some recommendations, which will contribute to neutralize precarity threats and implement professional potential of middle-generation workers in order to enhance living standards of their households.
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The impact of precarization on the standard of living and employment situation of Russian youth
Статья научная
The study of precarization implications focuses on young people who are facing serious problems on the way to stable employment. The lack of clear competitive advantages in the labor market complicates employment in the formal sector of the economy, where workers have access to an extensive system of social guarantees. In this regard, young people often feel vulnerable and uncertain about their future. Despite the relevance of the problem and wide discussion, there are not many specific empirical studies in this area. The aim of the paper is to determine the impact of precarization on the standard of living and the employment situation of young people. The information base is represented by the data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics for 2021 (30th round). Based on the original toolkit, the scale of precarious work was estimated depending on the concentration of precarization indicators and taking into account individual parameters of respondents. The indicators were calculated using the method of multivariate frequency distribution of attributes. According to the results obtained, the overwhelming majority (almost 80%) of young people are involved in precarious work. To a much lesser extent, this applies to the part of youth that has a high level of education, ICT skills and is engaged in skilled labor. The depth of precarization penetration is also closely linked to per capita income. As its size increases up to two subsistence minimums, the share of those involved in precarious work decreases significantly; and in this regard it does not matter what part of income is used for consumption. In conclusion, we substantiate proposals to counter the threats of precarization for young people. Prospects for further research are connected, first of all, with the identification of educational and professional trajectories that have a negative impact on employment stability.
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The impact of road transport connectivity on economic growth of regions: econometric modeling
Статья научная
For the Russian Federation, as the largest country in terms of area, the task of strengthening transport connectivity of territories: centers of economic growth, urban and rural areas, settlements within urban agglomerations, etc., is of exceptional importance. It is especially acute in the conditions of growing external sanctions pressure, which caused the need to multiply the strengthening of inter- and intra-regional ties of economic, migration, socio-cultural, scientific and technological nature. The aim of the research is to assess the impact of road transport connectivity on the economic growth of Russian regions. We used general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, generalization) and methods of spatial econometrics to achieve it. In particular, we substantiated the existence of clustering of regions in the country space by level of per capita GRP and key indicators of motor transport connectivity based on the results of calculation of global and local Moran's spatial autocorrelation indices. As a result of the construction of multiple regression models with random effects with spatial lags (SAR, SEM, SDM, GSPRE models) and without them, the article shows that the greatest positive and statistically significant influence on the GRP of its subject is exerted by the factor concerning location of the region within the North of Russia, and on the GRP of other regions - by the density of highways. The scientific significance of the study consists in proving that the economic growth of each region of Russia in the period 2014-2022 was influenced by the level of intra-regional transport connectivity of both the subject itself and other regions. The results of our work contribute to the development of ideas about the impact of spatial factors on the economic growth of Russian regions and can be used by researchers in conducting research on similar topics, by public authorities in the development of strategic documents and specific projects for the development of territories
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Статья научная
The paper considers municipal entities of the Novosibirsk Region in terms of the concentration of population and other resources in the metropolitan area. The aim of the research is to study the influence of population concentration in the Novosibirsk agglomeration on the development of the region's municipalities and the dynamics of the region's economy as a whole. The information base includes data from Rosstat and its Novosibirsk territorial division. The research period covers the time interval from 2005 to 2022. We propose an approach that allocates three territorial sectors of the economy, one of which is the Novosibirsk agglomeration, the other two include successfully developing and depressed municipalities, depending on the dynamics of their indicators. The resulting sectors are adjusted based on the location of municipal entities. Peripheral municipalities, being under the influence of the Novosibirsk agglomeration, are characterized by significant population migration, but economic indicators are growing faster in successfully developing municipalities compared to the Novosibirsk agglomeration. Using the Cobb - Douglas production functions constructed for three sectors we assess the impact of an increase or decrease in migration to the Novosibirsk agglomeration from other sectors. The results obtained make it possible to put forward some guidelines that will allow individual peripheral territories to develop successfully, primarily by creating favorable living conditions for the population. The study is part of a research project to assess the impact of the formation and development of agglomerations on the economy of the region as a whole. The results obtained can be used in regional strategic and program documents
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Статья научная
The state has set a task to expand the production of high-tech civilian products for the enterprises of the military-industrial complex. Many defense enterprises are located in single-industry towns, which makes it relevant to analyze the mutual influence of the diversification of city-forming enterprises and cities' development. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of the new model of diversification on the development of the territories of presence in the context of the nuclear industry. The research methodology is based on the principles of system analysis and institutional economic theory. The authors use the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, and logical modeling. The basis is the theory of the social contract. The research proposes a three-level model of the social contract, detailing the interaction of an individual with three levels of public power - federal, regional, and local. The feature of the municipal part of the social contract for single-industry towns is highlighted: its third party is the cityforming enterprise that creates a number of basic benefits. In single-industry towns, where the nuclear industry enterprises are the main city-forming enterprises, the municipal part of the social contract changes: a state corporation becomes one of the contract parties instead of a city-forming enterprise. This is due to the introduction of a new model of diversification of the state corporation's activities. The authors prove that changing the social contract can give the cities of presence new qualified jobs, and state corporations can help to form a personnel reserve, fulfill the goals in the field of defense production diversification and the creation of new high-tech businesses. Testing the modified model of the social contract on the example of closed administrative-territorial entities of the nuclear industry revealed local governments' and the population's interest in it, the possibility of cities' long-term sustainable development, including improving the comfort of living. The results of the study can be used to develop strategic documents for spatial development, programs for single-industry towns' development, city-forming enterprises and holdings in various industries.
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The impact of the pandemic on demographic processes in the Russian Arctic
Статья научная
Russia has achieved a high level of Internet connectivity and the use of digital technologies; this helps to accumulate and systematize huge amounts of population data. Modern challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, require a more prompt and detailed analysis of the demographic situation. Understanding the information collected by digital platforms and services can improve the quality of decision-making and be widely used in science and management. The aim of our study is to assess the change in the demographic situation in the Russian Arctic under the influence of the pandemic, with the use of new sources of population data that have emerged as a result of digitalization of the economy and public life. The article proposes an outline for the formation of a demographic knowledge base by combining traditional population statistics with data from digital platforms. We consider advantages and disadvantages of new data sources, features and examples of their application. We provide a detailed description of demographic processes in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation in 2020-2021 with the use of municipal statistics, data from Yandex online platforms and international pandemic databases. With the help of the proposed outline, we consider the dynamics of morbidity, mortality and vaccination against coronavirus infection. We study the reaction of the population of the Russian Arctic to the pandemic by analyzing the structure of search queries and the intensity of movement in city streets. We reveal the specifics of the spread of COVID-19 in the Arctic and estimate the impact of the pandemic on the natural population change and human mobility in the Arctic Zone. We calculate excess mortality at the regional and municipal levels. Based on the vaccination rates, we draw conclusions about the prospects for further development of the pandemic. The results obtained can be used for development of socio-demographic policy measures and construction of demographic forecasts for the Northern and Arctic territories.
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