Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1763
The evolution of forest exploitation and restoration in Russia: myths and realities
Статья научная
The article analyzes the trends of forest exploitation and restoration in Russia embracing a period of over a century. It highlights the key issues of the forest industry. The article evaluates the effectiveness of institutional changes concerning forestry solutions. It suggests a package of measures on managing the evolution of the forest sector aimed at stable, non-depletable forest exploitation while maximizing forest revenue.
Бесплатно
The experience of Russia and China in addressing the age aspect of the digital divide
Статья научная
The process of demographic aging is global and irreversible, and the share of the elderly in the population of most countries will steadily increase. This sets strategic tasks of taking these trends into account in management, creating conditions for quality life of people in older ages. In the conditions of rapid digitalization of the economy and branches of the social sphere, the issue of integration of elderly people into modern processes, monitoring the dynamics and factors of inclusion, and creating conditions for leveling various kinds of related exclusion is acute. The aim of the article is to comparatively analyze the practices of digital inclusion of the elderly in China and Russia in order to identify opportunities to improve their effectiveness. We used a complex of general scientific methods and relevant empirical base, consisting of data from population censuses and statistics on the development of information and communication infrastructure in the countries under consideration. We show the current state of research on the problem of age digital divide in China, Russia and other countries. We outline the scale and main trends in the use of digital technologies by elderly people, which unite China and Russia and are expressed in the growing number of Internet users in older ages, the desire for more active use of mobile Internet and mobile apps. The main constraints and challenges for the elderly with inadequate digital inclusion are formulated. In the conclusion, the main directions of development and increasing the effectiveness of inclusion practices of the older generation in digital interactions are formed. The results may be useful for formulating management decisions for successful digital development in the countries under consideration.
Бесплатно
The expert image of the Russian civil society
Статья научная
Civil society plays an increasingly important role in the economic and social development around the world. The article attempts to identify the conditions for the functioning of the civil society in Russia and forecast its development in the near future. The empirical framework of the research lies in the results of an expert survey held by the Russian Academy of Sciences in February-March, 2018. The research methods are based on two principles: first, the forecasting process is based on the procedure of expert evaluation of the current conditions, probability, and preference of possible changes in the civil society. Second, analysis is carried out as a result of integration of assessments of experts representing various socio-political spheres (government, business, third sector, science, the media). The research reveals that expert opinions on all aspects of functioning of the civil society are highly differentiated, which, on the one hand, can be explained by different ideological views of the expert community, on the other - indicates the current extremely uncertain and contradictory state of the sphere under study and its prospects...
Бесплатно
The factors of innovation activity of St. Petersburg industrial enterprises
Статья научная
The paper provides an analysis of innovation activity of manufacturing industries of the city of St. Petersburg. Relying on statistical and accounting data, the authors try to explain the cause-and-effect relationships in forming the innovative activity of these enterprises and to identify the problems of their innovation development. The particular emphasis is placed on evaluating the results of innovative activities of enterprises in recent years.
Бесплатно
The features of state regulation of agricultural and rural development of territories in Hungary
Статья научная
The purpose of this paper is to highlight the effects of the rural development, particularly the main role of the subsidy system. The determining part of the agricultural and rural development is the relevant effective subsidy systems. The study is focusing on the New Hungarian Rural Development Programme operating specialities and influence, which are my PhD study main components. Political goals and directions can be manifold; they are determined by the leaders’ vision, way of thinking, ideology, and view of spatial structures. At the same time, the development, i.e. the series of actual interventions and their technique, stems from the particularities of the area system. [1]; [2] After 1990, a change of the model took place in central and eastern European countries, the centralized, state-centred national administration had to be replaced with a democratic public administration. The relationship between central and local bodies had to be placed on new foundations, the same had to be done with the fulfilment of the tasks of the State and those of local governments. The countries of the region are characterized by continuous pathfinding [3]. At the time of EU accession in 2004 and even before that, Hungary was entitled to pre-accession funds such as ISPA, SHAPARD, PHARE [4]; [5]; [60]. The purpose of my paper is to shed light on the regional effects of rural development in regional politics, and among them, the decisive role played by the aid system. A key element of the possibilities of agricultural and rural development is the effective operation of relevant aid systems. The study focuses on the operational features of the New Hungary Rural Development Programme and their effects, which comprises an important part of my PhD thesis in the process of being completed.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The new political cycle and Vladimir Putin’s fifth presidential term are beginning in rather difficult and contradictory conditions for Russia. On the one hand, there are more and more signs that NATO countries are preparing for a direct military conflict with our country; this fact leads to an escalation of the already tense international situation. On the other hand, there are still no signs in the domestic political arena that the elites (primarily in the public administration system, representatives ofbig business) are beginning to feel the essence of the historical moment and, accordingly, shift their motivation and their values from personal interests to the interests of national security. The reason lies in the fact that although the President is adopting important decisions necessary for the start of a new political cycle (formulation of national development goals until 2030, 2036, appointment of responsible executors for their implementation), he has not given an answer to the question of what kind of State we are building. The State of “social capitalism” or “crony capitalism”? The need for an answer to this question (and specifically from the President) has been maturing in society for many years and has now reached such a degree of relevance that it became the subject of a plenary discussion with the participation of the head of state at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, held in Russia on June 5-8, 2024. However, at the Forum, there was still no response from the President to this question; so many experts (mostly reflecting the opinion of the majority of the country’s population) remain in a state of anxious expectation about where Russia is going; whether the country has a clear understanding of the image of the future, which is necessary for the successful achievement of all the goals of the special military operation and for building the contours of a new Social Contract that should replace what can be called the paradigm of semi-colonial dependence on the West... The article uses an extensive database in the form of expert opinions, facts, and monitoring sociological surveys results. Scientific novelty of the approach consists, first of all, in a combination of various aspects of the social and political life of the country, which become the subject of our analysis. Among them are specific administrative decisions of the head of state, assessments of public opinion, views of representatives of big business, opinions of State Duma deputies, political and public figures, historians, economists, etc. In particular, the article presents the results of the vote in the lower house of Parliament on the approval of candidates for new members of the Government of the Russian Federation, as well as data from the open accounts of a number of large metallurgical corporations, indicating that the priorities of their activities do not correspond to the challenges that Russia has faced after the beginning of the special military operation.
Бесплатно
The formation of digital space at the municipal level: overview of settlements' websites
Статья научная
The formation of digital economy and transition to electronic government impose qualitatively different demands to authorities' presence on the Internet. Local authorities are not an exception here. Due to modest financial capabilities of many municipalities, their websites, objectively, cannot match the level of federal and regional web portals. The necessity to meet modern requirements implies the search for acceptable ways to be present online. The article attempts to determine the current state of spatial distribution of municipal authorities' digital involvement on the settlement level. To achieve it, we revealed the ways of being present on the Internet, checked the availability of connections between websites of municipalities, gathered information characterizing disclosure of information about dynamics of municipal institution development, identified additional Internet communication channels, and built cartograms. The research includes 313 urban and rural settlements in the Republic of Karelia, the Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Leningrad, and Murmansk oblasts. The results of the study indicate that the digital space of this territory at the municipal level is almost completely formed and has a low degree of mutual integration of its Internet resources. It is shown that the most popular way of providing information about the settlement on the Internet - website - is not the best. It is revealed that local governments rarely use social media as an auxiliary or alternative channel of Internet communication with local residents. It is noted that the majority of settlements orientate toward practices used in settlements of their municipal district, while creating and maintaining webpages without borrowing the experience of neighboring districts and regions. The results of this study might be used for qualitative improvement of municipalities' activities conducted online and formation of e-government on regional and municipal levels.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
In the current development conditions, the issue of distributing social functions between the state and a business is the most relevant. There are several institutions through which the state transfers social functions to organizations: social entrepreneurship, nonprofit organizations, and corporate social responsibility. These processes are the most important for the RF Arctic zone, which is resource oriented, and it is characterized by a special vulnerability to technogenic, biogenic, and socio-cultural threats. Mining companies adopt a voluntary social responsibility policy more often than companies from other industries. The results of the analysis of conducted studies show that a little attention is paid to issues of cooperation between socially responsible companies and regional authorities. This work is devoted to studying processes of the formation of mechanisms defining cooperation between socially responsible companies and regional authorities of the RF Arctic zone. Primary and secondary sources of information served as the informational basis. To collect primary data, we used in-depth unstructured interviews. Secondary data sources were official data from government and companies’ websites, legal acts, and internal documentation of companies (annual reports, ordinances, regulations, policies, and reports on sustainable development). Content analysis of strategies, synthesis, and structural approach were used as methods of data interpretation. Access to company’s internal documentation and the lack of updates on government and companies’ official websites were restrictions of the research. Despite the existing bottlenecks in the research, the results are interesting for the further study of the mechanism of influence of business’ social responsibility on the territories’ socio-economic development and actualization of strategies for the Arctic regions’ development.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The article reveals the content of work conducted through the cooperation of scientists and specialists of both countries to build scientific and technological potential, priority areas of work of mutual interest.
Бесплатно
The genesis and mechanisms to overcome systemic economic crises
Статья научная
The paper aims to look into the origin and nature of global economic crises, the least studied phenomena of the global economic life - the phenomena, the nature of which still has not received a generally accepted explanation in economic science. Market economy has its own laws, the spontaneous nature of which is revealed in times of crises. However, the analysis of global “crisis experience” draws attention to an important feature in the implementation of various forms of crises that remains at all the stages of economic development. Some economic shocks, despite their urgency and scale, gradually give way to recovery and then - to complete recovery. Other end up with weak revival and depression, gradually turning into a new recession. Such crises, depressions, and periods of sluggish economic recovery form the “waves of crisis development” that hold the economy in a depressed condition for a long time. The impact and the consequences of these “waves” of economic shocks that are sequential or overlapping in time go beyond the medium-term economic dynamics...
Бесплатно
The greening of the bio-resource economy of the northern region
Статья научная
The article presents the results of a collaborative study aimed at finding opportunities and limitations for effective use of renewable bio-resources, which are an important part of the resource base of the economy of the Komi Republic. The novelty of the approach to achieving the goal lies in addressing the methodology of greening established as an official course of global sustainable development and gaining momentum in Russia. The logic of the research into modernization of the bio-resource economy of the Northern region corresponded to the traditional scheme, including the understanding of the content, measurement of parameters and areas of development of the process under study, and is reflected in the structure of the article. The research covers the stages of green development, its relations with sustainable development, and approaches to their measurement. Relying on the methodology of green sustainable development for the modernization of bio-resource industries has helped: specify it as environmental modernization aimed at preserving natural capital, improving the environmental quality of life, improving the resource efficiency of economic activity; assess the level of greening of the objects under study and identify the barriers to its increase; justify the areas of conservation and effective use of land, forest and water resources and “greening” the structure of the bio-resource economy of the region...
Бесплатно
The hermeneutic-educational paradigm for a training management in a civic and social sense
Статья научная
The idea that the long-life and long-life learning are preparatory to the civic-political, economic and social development of the present society of knowledge, is now a fact. Nevertheless, in the educational process, today, complaints are still heard about an insufficient ability to interpret the change, to design training programs which can affect the civic education, the sustainable development and the welfare of an area. All that requires a managerial education, based on a hermeneutic-educational paradigm, to optimize the management of public and private educational institutions to capitalize on human resources and to direct them to the acquisition of civic-social skills to use long-life in order to promote social awareness and civic competence. This managerial training will formalize real laboratories of civic-mindedness in public and private educational institutions, it will raise the awareness of cooperative learning, it will activate some practices of responsible citizenship and will urge the civic consciousness in the European dimension...
Бесплатно
The housing policy problems on the local level
Статья научная
The article covers the local government’s capacities and limitations on the matters of forming of its own housing policy in a municipality’s territory. The paper contains the analysis of legislative framework within the scope of which some local authorities may realize their housing policies. It is proved that on the local level especially in Russia’s small towns the local government’s capacities for efficient housing policy are restricted.
Бесплатно
The impact of R&D expenditures on high-tech product exports
Статья научная
Increasing high-tech product exports in international markets to achieve sustainable economic growth goals is considered an important element in every country in the contemporary world, where globalization is experienced at the highest level. Although it is accepted that many factors affect high-tech product exports in the literature, it is emphasized that R&D expenditures have significant effects. In this research, the effect of R&D expenditures on high-tech product exports in 11 emerging market economies in the period of 1996-2018 was examined. In the context of explanatory variables that are thought to have an impact on high-tech product export, exchange rate, foreign demand, economic growth, and foreign direct investments were used in addition to R&D expenditures. To analyze the relationships, panel quantile regression analysis was applied. The results showed that each variable had different effects on high-tech product exports, and it was seen that R&D expenditures had a positive and very strong effect. In addition, it was determined that economic growth and foreign direct investment also had positive and significant effects on high-tech product exports. In the light of the findings, it is of great importance to allocate more share to R&D expenditures to increase high-tech product exports and benefit from international trade markets more effectively, especially in developing countries.
Бесплатно
The impact of employment barriers on the employment characteristics of persons with disabilities
Статья научная
Disability is a complex phenomenon that generates a number of negative socio-economic consequences including working-age population decrease. At the same time, disability is not always accompanied by a complete loss of the ability to work. Usually, persons with disabilities of the second and third groups retain the opportunity to work in the presence of suitable conditions, but in practice the realization of their labor potential is limited by a number of circumstances. The purpose of this work is to substantiate the negative impact of barriers to employment of disabled people on the characteristics of their employment. Based on the statistical data analysis, we have shown a modern socio-demographic portrait of working disabled people, and analyzed the characteristics of their employment and economic activity. We have found that for a long period the highest economic activity was shown by persons with the third disability group. The paper proves that their higher representation in the composition of employed persons with disabilities is due, on the one hand, to less pronounced health disorders and relatively low need to create specialized jobs, and on the other hand, has economic prerequisites. We have shown that the realization of the labor potential of disabled people is not always accompanied by a significant increase in their material well-being. Employment for some disabled people may be a forced step, which confirms the prevalence among them of employment not in their specialty, as well as on the basis of an oral agreement, without official employment. The final part of the article outlines recommendations that can contribute to the fuller realization of the labor potential of disabled people and improve their financial situation.
Бесплатно
The impact of employment digitalization on parenting strategies
Статья научная
The aim of this study is to conduct a comparative assessment of the number of children and the time spent on childcare among Russians of reproductive age working in non-digital and digital (including remote) employment formats. The data source is the Rosstat sample observation database on the population's use of daily time budgets (N=27,082). The research methodology is based on a comprehensive approach to studying the digitalization of employment, the key feature of which is the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) at work. According to the All-Russian Classifier of Occupations, digital employment includes: 1) IT specialists; and 2) specialists who actively use ICT in their activities. Statistically significant differences in the average number of children were identified between groups with digital and non-digital employment, between remote and non-remote workers, and between representatives of flexible and other work schedule formats. Hypotheses that the time spent on childcare would differ depending on the level of employment digitalization were also tested. The conducted analysis of variance showed that the fertility rate in the group of workers with digital employment is lower than among those who work without using ICT. The remote work format does not have a statistically significant effect on the number of children; however, the flexibility of the work schedule demonstrates a certain influence: the digitalization of employment positively affects the amount of time devoted to children, both by mothers and fathers. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: the digitalization of job content does not have a direct impact on reproductive behavior; expanding access to remote work formats can positively affect fertility, provided there is flexibility in the work schedule. This aspect should be taken into account when developing corporate social support measures for employees with family responsibilities.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
Global economic challenges, along with a slowdown in the world economy growth, lead to the need to consider foreign economic activity (FEA) as a factor affecting regional development. Due to non-resource exports, both quantitative (increasing the exports volume, employment, investment inflows, tax base) and qualitative tasks (diversifying the economy, increasing competitiveness and innovation, production of high-value products) are solved. In this regard, a scientifically based assessment of the FEA role in the regional development strategies is relevant which can be the basis for developing a set of mechanisms and tools for the region’s foreign economic development. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the FEA development impact on the regional development by identifying the reflection of its prospects in the development strategies of Russian regions and different countries’ regions. The object of the research is FEA of the selected regions of the Russian Federation, developed countries (Germany, USA), and EAEU countries (Belarus and Kazakhstan). The scientific novelty is to identify the relations between the degree of economic development and FEA countries, and the reflection of promising areas and tools for the FEA development in the development strategies of their regions. The methodological base is represented by the approaches to defining the determinants and principles of FEA support. There were included the following methods: an indicators’ comparative analysis of the economic and FEA development levels of the selected countries and the prospects for the FEA development (in areas, including export of services; non-resource export; export diversification; etc.) in their regions’ strategies. The analysis results confirmed the assumption that the reflection of the directions and tools of FEA development is paid attention to both in developed and developing economies, but different countries have their own specifics. The analysis allows taking into account the experience of developed countries and leading exporters, as well as the EAEU members, when working out individual strategies and program documents of the regions in the FEA field.
Бесплатно
The impact of formal and informal institutions on innovative economic development
Статья научная
Formal institutions are important elements of the institutional structure of the national innovation system. The development of legislative regulation of the Russian innovation system fits within the framework of the administrative state evolution: the growth of the scope of regulation is accompanied by an increase in the number of laws and by-laws. Although the dynamism of formal institutions is an essential condition for adapting to changing environment, it also increases uncertainty and therefore has a negative impact on actors. The analysis of the functioning of formal institutions can be conducted from two perspectives: deductive and inductive. The deductive approach is based on the analysis of the legislative regulation-associated costs and is close to the new institutional economics tradition. The inductive approach, which is used in this paper, follows original institutionalism and narrative economics scholarly tradition. The following problems associated with the functioning of formal institutions have been highlighted in the analysis of narratives about the Russian innovation system: the lack of the necessary legislation, non-complementarity and inconsistency of laws and by-laws, the imperfection of existing legislation, lack of real support for innovations in the formal creation of relevant legal acts, funds and organizations, etc. An econometric modeling of formal and informal institutions influence on the innovative development of the economy has been carried out. Significant variables have been identified including the general indicators of formal institutions and social capital. It leads to the conclusion that the improvement of formal institutions is necessary for the innovative activity development, and high social capital contributes to building trust and, therefore, promotes knowledge sharing and cooperation, which are crucial for innovation initiation.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The aim of the study is to assess the impact of geographical factors on trade in the Asia-Pacific region. We show that physical distance is the key parameter in assessing the influence of geographical factors on trade within the framework of gravity dependence. The estimates obtained confirm the validity of the hypothesis concerning a long-term reduction in the negative impact of physical distance calculated in various ways on trade in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating the invariance in the choice of values of this parameter to determine the general trend of the influence of geographical factors on commodity exchange in the subglobal region. It is determined that the use of an arithmetic mean physical distance is more acceptable for obtaining correct estimates of the influence of geographical factors on trade in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of compliance with formal criteria for gravitational modeling. The negative impact of physical distance on trade in the Asia-Pacific region has decreased by almost 13% by 2021 compared to 1993, indicating a high intensity of commodity exchange in the subglobal region. The estimates obtained confirm the assumption that the land border has a positive impact on trade turnover in the Asia-Pacific region, which increased by 56% in 1993-2021. We find that the presence of a land border contributed to the expansion of trade between border economies in comparison with other countries of the Asia-Pacific region by 208.3% in 2021. The assessment shows the absence of a statistically significant impact of other factors - the colonial past and linguistic community - on trade in the Asia-Pacific region; this indicates the leveling of ties formed in the past due to the dominance of gravitational attraction between economies in terms of reducing barriers in interactions between them. It is shown that against the background of a decrease in comparative transport costs in the Asia-Pacific region, the current sanctions against Russia are able to limit the geographical distribution of Russian exports, reducing it to the neighborhood markets of the subglobal region, where the Russian economy will experience an increasing gravitational pull from China.
Бесплатно
The impact of institutional factors on economic dynamics in the regions
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the problem of combining institutional and economic features in regional research and forecasting. We substantiate that the importance of institutional factors, including those in the regional context, manifests itself under significant differences in the institutional conditions for business that make it possible to receive stable institutional rent; this leads to the stratification of business by levels of alpha, beta and gamma business. The object of the study is top large business in the region. The distribution of major global and federal companies in the context of regions, as well as the presence of an established group of leaders in the regional economy, requires their separate monitoring and forecasting. We propose our own approach to determining the features of consolidation of large business. We show that the range of dispersion of their levels among regions and over time is significant and can be tens of percent and/or percentage points, which urges researchers to focus on these indicators. By comparing the features of consolidation of large business in the regions and using the constructed quantitative estimates, we substantiate the typology of methods (models) of economic growth in regions, depending on the presence or absence of major global, federal, and regional companies in them and their role in regional economy. Theoretical significance of this approach consists in combining the institutional analysis of the architecture of regional markets with the cost and physical aspects of the analysis; this will help improve the quality of diagnostics of regional and interregional problems and the validity of forecasts. Practical significance is determined by the possibilities of taking into account the architecture of regional markets in regional economic policy.
Бесплатно
