Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1659
The north and the arctic in the new paradigm of global development: current problems
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The north of Russia: distribution of productive forces and space development
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Following the theoretical standpoints by the academician A.G. Granberg, the author considers the main problem of space development in association with the distribution of productive forces. Each of three positions of the North area (circumpolar, latitudinal and meridian) brings up to date some certain aspects of regional politics, notably its arctic vector, regulation of norms and standards of social and production activity, strengthening of integration in the line of “North - South” in order to form a full-blooded Russian market.
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According to some researchers, in recent years there has been an upward trend in predominant stagnating regions in Russia. The reasons for this include low innovation activity of the periphery, deindustrialization, predominant extractive industries, capital exports, growing social and property stratification and other equally important reasons. The current economic and political crisis in our country is both a threat, an opportunity and an impetus to restructuring the regional economy. In these conditions it becomes extremely necessary to search for new growth points in the regional economy, support for the most promising industries, and efficient resource allocation. Inter-regional cooperation is the most important area of the regional policy, ensuring progressive balanced socio-economic development of regions based on establishing long-term, equal and mutually beneficial relations between them. The importance of inter-regional cooperation for the development of modern Russia's constituent entities is determined by the fact that it strengthens economic ties between them, optimizes the location of infrastructure facilities based on cooperation of their activities, eliminates inefficient financial costs associated with the creation of duplicate economic structures in Russia's constituent entities and unjustified inter-regional competition, combines the regions' economic potential for implementing the most large-scale investment projects, spreads innovative experience in innovation development...
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The overdue transformation of the budget policy model in the context of growing economic dynamics
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The changes taking place in the Russian economy under the influence of structural shifts and institutional transformations caused by external shocks determine the need to find a balance between budget planning and economic forecasting, taking into account the revealed differences in scenario approaches, deviations in the execution of the federal budget relative to planned assignments, weak connection between budget expenditures and subsequent socio-economic dynamics. It is proved that strong economic growth is associated with the liberation of the Russian economy from the dominance of foreign business in domestic markets. The problem is the discrepancy between conservative fiscal policy and the challenges of economic development, including the development of scenario conditions for a medium-term forecast for it. The unpreparedness of the public sector for high economic growth can become a brake on economic growth and institutional transformations. The directions of expanding the fiscal space in connection with the processes of adaptation of the Russian economy to external shocks are highlighted. These include differences between scenario conditions; between the GDP parameters adopted in the draft federal budget for the first fiscal year and the reporting values of this indicator at the end of the year, faster GDP growth compared with official forecasts; structural, transformational and institutional changes taking place in the Russian economy. To improve the quality of scenario forecasting underlying the development of the federal budget, it is necessary to include ambitious “target” and “crisis” scenarios in the scenario conditions developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation along with conservative and basic ones. The clarification of the scenario conditions should be based on an assessment of the economic consequences of the implementation of budgetary policy measures. The composition of indicators of scenario conditions requires expansion. In addition to the current adjustments to the budget process, deeper reforms should begin to be worked out, corresponding to high economic growth and serious structural shifts in the economy.
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The paradigm of transformative investment in the context of socially oriented theories
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The article is devoted to the study of transformative investments in the context of socially oriented theories. The growing inequality of the regions, the lack of equal opportunities in obtaining basic vital goods force society to look for new forms of overcoming social problems, which include transformative investments. The new investment paradigm, which provides for investing in solving social and environmental problems, has become widespread in many countries, the potential of this type of investment is growing every year, meeting the goals of sustainable development. Despite the fact that the investment directions of transformative investments involve investing in various spheres, this article considers only social aspects. In connection with the above, the purpose of the proposed work is to present a paradigmatic justification of transformative investments in the context of socially oriented theories. It should be noted that the phenomenon of transformative investments can theoretically be explained in the context of different theories and concepts, depending on research tasks. In this paper, the theories of social justice and social policy, the theory of the welfare state are considered. To understand the essence of transformative investments, the paper considers their main characteristics, which allowed reflecting the specifics of these investments and the features of their evaluation. Transformative projects are aimed at solving a significant social problem, they must bring financial returns and ensure guaranteed profitability, which distinguishes them from projects provided by charity or state support. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that this group of theories (along with other theories) can serve as a theoretical platform for the study of transformative investments aimed at the development of the social sphere, complementing the works of Russian and foreign scientists. The results of theoretical studies conducted by the authors determine the choice of the main directions and forms of investments that allow optimizing the social policy of the state. The paper concludes that it is necessary to maintain a balance in the social and economic spheres, taking into account the already established institutions and preventing abrupt changes in the redistribution of income; providing the population with appropriate tools and its active participation in development processes.
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The phenomenon of social institution and its theoretical definition
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Theoretical description of institutions as social phenomena requires that their adequate model be constructed. However, the concept of “social institution” has no universally accepted definition. The article discusses the phenomenon of social institution and analyzes its definitions. Researchers consider social institution from several points of view, but the existing definitions do not reflect all the features of social institutions. It has been recently acknowledged that institutions need to be developed slowly, and radical changes in social institutions often cause serious deterioration in their functioning. The theoretical model of social institution should explain the reasons for this stability. A good model should also explain other properties of social institutions, for example, their system and structural features. The paper proposes the model of institution as an open social system with blurred boundaries and an uncertain number of participants. At the macro level, institutions as social systems have a normative, ideal and organizational structure...
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The phenomenon of strategic advantages in the 21st century
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The article investigates issues concerning the development of countries amid geopolitical turbulence. In particular, it is shown that the development of the world economic system has two phases: monocentricity, with a leader country and the world order it has established; and multipolarity with an increasing chaos and the struggle of many countries for the reconstruction of the world. These processes are based on scale effect, which at the stage of multipolarity operates in the external sphere in the form of territorial expansion, and at the stage of monocentricity - in the internal sphere in the form of technological innovations within the corporate sector of individual countries. The paper considers the restoration of the phenomenon of strategic advantages, which barely manifested itself in the geopolitical space for a long time. To explain the cyclical rising of this effect, we introduce the concepts of independent (natural) and controlled (artificial) development instead of the concepts of outstripping development and catching-up development that are fading into the background; we show that artificial development exists in the form of acceleration and containment. This made it possible to put forward a political model of sovereignty “leader - satellites/opponents - neutral zone” instead of I. Wallerstein’s technological model “core - semi-periphery - periphery”. We propose and substantiate a quantitative criterion for strategic advantages, according to which they are observed under multiple differences (twofold or more) in the economic indicators of the compared countries. The framework study uses five indicators: area, GDP, population, technology level (GDP per capita), availability of nuclear weapons; the first four parameters are assessed quantitatively with the help of strategic advantages index; the fifth parameter is assessed qualitatively. We consider examples of the phenomenon of strategic advantages for bilateral relations: Azerbaijan/Armenia; Russia/Ukraine; South Korea/North Korea; India/Pakistan, etc. We also reveal the significance of this effect for Russia’s long-term foreign policy strategy.
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In the article the growing role of tourism in a modern society is characterized, the huge importance of the development of tourism for economic, social and cultural rise of Russia and its regions is marked.
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The article studies the transformation and regulation of the phenomenon of unevenness of socio-economic space. We provide detailed comments on a fundamental nature of the unevenness of development of socio-economic space in any territorial entity (region, country, district, etc.) and point out the importance of research on the unevenness of development from the standpoint of science and management. We substantiate a priority approach to the study of unevenness; in the framework of this approach we move consistently from quantitative assessment of the phenomenon of unevenness of space through identification of specifics and patterns to forecasting and practical recommendations for management. All this is related to the prospects of further research. We present the importance and relevance of this study, which aims to identify specifics of the phenomenon of unevenness of socio-economic development of cities and districts of the Murmansk Oblast, and to forecast its dynamics and regulation in present-day crisis conditions...
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The post-crisis economic development and prospects of innovation activity in the Tomsk region
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Completion of the critical phase of the global financial crisis is the need for economic analysis of its possible consequences. The article presents an analysis of key aspects of economic activities of Tomsk region as an example of assessment of the prospects for the region's innovative development. It contains the data on the dynamics of post-crisis economic development and the proposals for innovative orientation of the region.
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Статья научная
The eastern regions of Russia are the convenient zone in which Russia cooperates with the actively developing Asian region. The key states of North-East Asia such as China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea are the largest participants in world trade at the present stage. The servicing of large-scale commodity flows with the European Union and the U.S. is provided by the market of transport services, by means of which the most effective schemes of delivery are built. Under these conditions, the transport system of the East of Russia has objective prerequisites for integration into the international transport system. The goal of our present study is to assess the potential of integration of the transport system of the Far East in the market of transport services in North-East Asia. At the same time, we assess integration opportunities with the help of dividing the territory of the East of Russia into districts based on the results of cluster analysis. Considering the achievement of the research goal, this approach is a new one. The need for division is due to the fact that the Far East is quite a large region, extremely heterogeneous in its internal composition, economic-geographical and socio-economic characteristics. Constituent entities of the Russian Federation as part of the Far Eastern Federal District have, among other things, different integration potential and level of development of the transport system. In the course of cluster analysis we use indicators of transport network development and the scale of foreign economic activity as the criteria for division. As a result of our calculations, we divide the Far East into five regions that differ in the potential of integration interaction of the transport system with the market of transport services in North-East Asia. The paper presents specific features of the selected areas, characteristics of transport systems and prospects for participation in the international transport market. In the future, it is possible to conduct a study taking into account the projects for development of the transport system of the Far East, which adjust the prospects for integration interactions.
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The potential of modern Russian generations
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The paper considers the necessity of socio-demographic approach to assessing the potential of modern generations. The demographic potential of generations is determined by their number, their share in total population, and their life expectancy. Their economic potential is determined by the proportion of representatives of different generations in total employment. Their social potential is determined by the system of values of generations. The rapid growth of differences in these characteristics leads to the break up of intergenerational relations and is connected with the aggravation of social contradictions. The potential of modern generations can be considered in different aspects: number of generations, life expectancy at birth, the share of representatives of different generations that share or do not share the basic social values of the society, including values related to reproductive and other types of demographic behavior. In order to identify existing differences between generations in the framework of the socio-demographic approach, the paper analyzes the dynamics of the number of young people in 1926, 1936, 2014 in the Russian Federation; the authors also carry out a comparative analysis of the secondary and authors' sociological data of values-related and reproductive attitudes of conditionally parental and child generations...
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The potential of tax impact on the economic inequality of citizens in Russia
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In Russia, the possibilities of smoothing inequality through taxes have not been implemented, despite the consistently high inequality, its acute perception by citizens and attention to the problem at the highest level of government. The aim of the study is to determine the possibilities for smoothing the economic inequality of citizens in Russia with the help of tax instruments. The hypothesis of the study is that the set of instruments of income, indirect and property taxation of citizens in Russia has a significant unrealized potential for smoothing economic inequality. To test the hypothesis, we use correlation and regression analysis and decomposition of tax instruments according to areas (income, property and indirect) and explore the dependence of inequality indicators on tax tools used for smoothing inequality. Based on the data from Rosstat, Federal Tax Service, World Bank, OECD, Credit Suisse and the World Inequality Database, a Data Set was formed which includes 2.6 thousand indicators. The calculations were performed using the Data Analysis Toolpak in MS Excel. The relevance of personal income tax deductions was assessed by using sociological survey dat. It was established that the current tax instruments do not help to smooth inequality in Russia, and sometimes, on the contrary, lead to its growth. It seems advisable to smooth inequality within the framework of income taxation by increasing the progression of personal income tax and introducing a tax-free minimum in conjunction with the minimum wage, increasing the share of social tax deductions. In the field of property taxes, it is advisable to increase the tax burden for owners of expensive or many objects of property, and provide the targeting of tax benefits. In terms of indirect taxes, it is expedient to reduce VAT on goods and services that make up the bulk of consumption expenses of the least well-off citizens, for example, housing and communal services, and to increase VAT on items that form the basis of consumption of the rich, for example, the return of the 20% rate on recreation, hotels, cafes and restaurants. The potential of tax administration in smoothing inequality is determined by the possibilities of ensuring the completeness of taxation of current income, capital and consumption of the most affluent citizens.
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The potential of women in the labor market of the region
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Participating in labor activity and the situation on the labor market are among the most important aspects of research into the empowerment of women; this research has a significant impact on the implementation of labor potential, and, consequently, on the overall economic development of the territory. However, as global and Russian practice shows, women in the labor market represent a more vulnerable category than men and often face discrimination in relation to wages, career position, employment, etc. Authors of scientific papers usually acknowledge that female population has higher levels of human capital, but they do not go deep into the analysis of its qualitative characteristics. In this context, we performed a study of the labor potential of women in the regional labor market (on the basis of the monitoring data on the quality status of the labor potential in the Vologda Oblast). Our analysis has shown that the values of the majority of basic components of labor potential quality in women are higher than those in men (with the exception of the health index)...
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The article deals with the practice of the financing of public education in the Vologda province in the second half of the XIX century - the beginning of the XX century. The article, basing on the historical-comparative approach compares the objects, forms, types and sources of the financing of primary education. The study of the problem is based on the analysis of the archival materials and published record management and statistical documents.
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The president called on the officials of all levels to “stop fooling around”
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February 2023 marks one year since the beginning of the special military operation (February 24, 2022). February 21, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual address to the Federal Assembly. The head of state noted: “This is not only a time of challenges but also a time of opportunities… And our future depends on the way we realize these opportunities. We must put an end - and I want to emphasize this - to all interagency conflicts, red tape, grievances, doublespeak, or any other nonsense. Everything we do must contribute to achieving our goals and delivering results. This is what we must strive to achieve”… And here the President is certainly right, since the principle of “everything must contribute to achieving our goals and delivering results” is hindered by the activities and managerial decisions of individual representatives of bureaucracy who are unable or unwilling to comply with the new conditions in which the country found itself after the start of the special military operation. In the article, we carry on analyzing the situation in Russia, key steps taken by the President in the face of increasing threats to national security, trends in public opinion and individual facts of real life that contradict the dominant national-patriotic trend of social sentiment and the tasks set by the President after February 24, 2022. The information base for our research includes assessments by experts from various fields, results of monitoring sociological surveys, and public speeches of the head of state since 2000. One of our main conclusions is that the future of Russia, the real formation of a new Social Contract, which is possible only after Russia’s victory in the special military operation and which consists in building a sovereign social state based on traditional spiritual and moral values and the principle of social justice, should begin with the mobilization of elites, elimination of “contradictions, formalities and other nonsense”; and the head of state can and should be the initiator of this process.
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The priorities of the energy infrastructure modernization in rural areas of the Komi Republic
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The article presents the problems of development and modernization of energy infrastructure priorities in rural areas of the Komi Republic. For the most part of rural population the achieved level of energy supply is the necessary minimum for the needs, and it has the low parameters of the energy and economy efficiency. The main directions of the rural energy supply modernization should be: the gas supply system development, the electric grid capacity growth and the construction of the modern small energy technologies (small central heating and power plants, modular boiler plants, efficient solid fuel boilers).
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The priorities of the public policy in the northern regions
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The article deals with the current economic trends in the Russian North. It shows the stabilizing role of economic systems of northern regions in the national economy and shortcomings of the state regulation of activities under the specific nature-climatic conditions. The necessity and directions of making changes and additions in the tax and budget legislation as well as in the normative acts on state guarantees for the persons working and living in regions of the Far North are substantiated.
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Due to the approach of 2024, when, under the current Constitution of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin will not be able to run for President, conceptual issues related to the results of the country's development in the 21st century and, most importantly, its prospects for the coming decades, are becoming more acute. One of these issues (determined, among other things, by the specifics of the modern historical stage of development of the world civilization as a whole) consists in the problem of civilizational self-determination, which, in fact, has been discussed by the scientific community in our country since the collapse of the Soviet Union. This problem is connected with the lack of strategic goal-setting as one of the key functions of public administration; such a situation has a lot of negative implications for the population and national development as a whole: from the lingering unresolved social problems (poverty, inequality, etc.) to the regular delays in the implementation of national projects and execution of specific orders of the head of state. In addition, according to the results of federal and regional studies, Russian society does not have a distinct cultural and value-based vector of development; moreover, against the background of the relentless need to increase the standard of living and achieve social justice, Russian society is increasingly becoming a consumer society with all its key shortcomings such as obsession with the material component of life, the desire to achieve personal success, ignoring the historically established norms of morality, etc. In the context of the issue of civilizational choice becoming more important as well as a wide range of problems caused by its absence, we analyze the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation - the key federal documents that reflect basic principles of the existing dynamics and future prospects of national development. We come to the conclusion that the ruling elites do not work to form the spiritual and moral foundations of Russian society; consequently, the goals they set are focused on solving material problems only, which makes public administration similar to corporate governance. This poses one of the key threats to national security and national development and makes it necessary to hold a broad discussion initiated primarily by the government and aimed to consider practical possibilities and prospects for the implementation of the basic principles of the social state contained in the Constitution of the Russian Federation.
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